Potential for a genuine crisis of legitimacy.
Useful post from @Overhang_AoNZ that models out the likelihood of an overhang by looking at how people usually split their votes (it's in the name!).
Long story short: An eight-seat overhang for National and two-seat one for TPM.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com…
Carl Worker retweeted
lula ended up winning the brazil election by 3 points, not close enough to contest.
bolsonaro can refuse to accept the outcome, doesn’t matter.
Carl Worker retweeted
🇧🇷🗳️ Lula da Silva has won Brazil's presidential election with 51.76% of the vote, securing 64,093,998 votes, according to official figures.
🏛️ The president prevailed in the runoff election to secure another term in office.
Follow batimes.com.ar to learn more 📲
Carl Worker retweeted
This back and forth is all beginning to sound rather familiar.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has denied he sought to update its principal bilateral agreement with Samoa, despite his Samoan counterpart reportedly claiming the opposite.
rnz.co.nz/news/pacific/21683…
Carl Worker retweeted
Lula victory speech:
"We had to overcome foreign interference through digital platforms, which we will have to regulate.
We cannot have monstrously huge corporations earning millions & billions, paying no taxes to this country & trying to steer this country's election results."
Carl Worker retweeted
Latin America does not want to lose its turn in the regional rotation to lead the UN. The last time the UNSC selected someone from the region was in the 1980s.
Join me Wednesday for a conversation with the leading candidate, @RGrynspan.
stimson.org/event/a-vision-f…
Carl Worker retweeted
NEW: Britain is walking away from joining the Canada-led international Defence, Security & Resilience Bank
@FT first revealed last month that the UK was exploring the proposal, including an option to merge the DSRB with the Multilateral Defence Mechanism (MDM), a separate UK-spearheaded international defence initiative.
Talks broke down over merger, including disagreement about locations of proposed headquarters, acc to officials briefed on the matter.
Via @GeorgeWParker & me
ft.com/content/1f7924c1-ab63…
Carl Worker retweeted
Congratulations to my friend @LulaOficial on his electoral victory.
Democracy and multilateralism have won in Brazil.
Europe’s partnership with Brazil is thriving.
We will remain by your side for the years to come.
Together we will keep working closely for free and open trade.
A rules-based global order.
And strong ambitions for our climate.
Carl Worker retweeted
How's NZ's "independent foreign policy" working out these days? rnz.co.nz/news/politics/2149…
Carl Worker retweeted
Uruguay's president, Orsi, faced the prospect of becoming South America's only left-wing president. No wonder he was among the first heads of state to call Lula to congratulate him.
Very odd construct. NZ government has supposedly done a brilliant job on US relations (bending over backwards and giving them everything they want) but it hasn’t been noticed or made any difference because no one in Washington knows where NZ is anyway. Hmmm.
Our 2026 Sir Howard Kippenberger Chair Zack Cooper’s full interview with @NZQandA Jack Tame is now online. youtube.com/watch?v=ORUnHLg8…
Wow! Raises the bar for Luxon!
¡Viva Lula, viva Brasil, viva la igualdad en América Latina!
Foto: @nytimes
Carl Worker retweeted
¡Viva Lula, viva Brasil, viva la igualdad en América Latina!
Foto: @nytimes
Carl Worker retweeted
I expect Flávio Bolsonaro’s refusal to recognize the result to be less disruptive than his father’s refusal to concede four years ago. Unlike Jair Bolsonaro in 2022, Flávio does not control the government. Nor did he spend months before the vote, as his father did, casting doubt on the voting machines, a campaign that convinced many of his father’s voters; Flávio did so once, in July, and then backtracked. Finally, Lula’s margin of more than 4 million votes, about twice his 2022 margin, is probably too wide for a claim of irregularities to persuade many beyond the Bolsonaros’ core supporters.
Carl Worker retweeted
Heartiest congratulations to my dear friend, President Lula, on his remarkable re-election victory.
I look forward to working closely with him to further deepen and expand the multifaceted India-Brazil Strategic Partnership.
Together, we will continue to strengthen our cooperation across diverse sectors, advance the shared priorities of the Global South and work towards a more inclusive, equitable and sustainable world.
@LulaOficial
Carl Worker retweeted
There has been speculation that Netanyahu might try to accidentally on purpose provoke a resumption of war with Iran, in hopes of helping him in his election. The Israeli chief of staff appears to share that concern.
Israel's Channel 12 Reporting (English translation of their report:)
Breaking news in this edition
An unprecedented confrontation between the Chief of Staff and the Prime Minister has reached a critical—or perhaps disastrous—turning point over the last 24 hours.
At the heart of the matter: the Iranian issue.
There is concern on the part of [Chief of Staff] Zamir that Netanyahu and the political leadership might trigger a scenario of miscalculation vis-à-vis Iran, just ahead of the elections.
A defense official states that the action in question could lead to a rapid confrontation with Iran at a highly sensitive and dramatic moment, potentially resulting in a miscalculation.
Sources familiar with the details indicate that the military leadership fears an attempt to exploit the Iranian issue for political gain—a claim that political figures deny, labeling it an outright lie.
Regardless, two sources tell me that the situation has escalated to the point where, during a visit to the Palmachim Airbase today, the atmosphere in the discussion was extremely tense.
In recent days, Zamir received a directive from the political leadership but requested an in-depth discussion before taking any action.
He also demanded formal, signed legal authorization from the political echelon for the proposed move.
A senior defense official remarked: "History will not forget the role Zamir has played here over the last few days."
In short: an exceptionally intense confrontation between Zamir and Netanyahu regarding the Iranian issue, occurring just before the elections.
It should be noted: all details in this report have been approved by the Military Censor.
Yaron Avraham
Carl Worker retweeted
Given a margin of more than four million votes, roughly double that of 2022, a decision by Flávio Bolsonaro to question the result is unlikely to produce meaningful consequences. The two-hour extension of voting, criticized by some on the right, is not enough to sustain a campaign alleging fraud, not least because Flávio’s own campaign had asked for longer voting hours in several states.
Carl Worker retweeted
My heartiest congratulations to my dear friend, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, on his historic election victory in Brazil. This was a hard-fought contest that has given him a renewed mandate from the Brazilian people to lead their great nation.
His lifelong commitment to social justice, to reducing poverty and to ensuring that the voices of developing countries are heard has earned respect well beyond Brazil. I have always valued our friendship, and I share his conviction that the Global South must have a stronger voice in shaping a fairer international order.
Malaysia looks forward to working closely with Brazil under President Lula’s continued leadership. There is much we can do together: strengthening trade and investment, advancing cooperation between ASEAN and Latin America and giving greater substance to the partnership between our two countries.
ANWAR IBRAHIM




























