Long term investor with value inclination. Favorite stocks include Fairfax Financial, Mako Mining, Omeros, NextNav and Kingsway.
Seattle, WA
Joined July 2013
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$NN The news that SpaceX is building out their terrestrial network is another great indication for the value of the NN low band spectrum. If and when we get good news on the tape for NN it will appear obvious in hindsight.
Listening to "Ep. 177: Regulators Modernize @ FCC " at buzzsprout.com/1735821/episo…
$NN Interesting discussion from FCC senior executive. Talk includes creating and delivering more spectrum and more willingness to push on interference claims.
Charles Frischer retweeted
The entire thesis boils down to whether $NN is able to function without causing "unacceptable interference" to incumbent unlicensed users. There is already a very robust record and the FCC is showing its cards, IMO.
Charles Frischer retweeted
Ask yourself: If the FCC was even a little worried about the safety of first responders or the functioning of critical systems, would they have granted $NN authorization to operate on Capitol Hill?
FCC granted $NN request for Washington DC today. apps.fcc.gov/els/GetAtt.html…. @cfrischer1 @papaspectrum @CalgaryLeveen @LaughingH20Cap
Charles Frischer retweeted
Yes, there is a range of possible outcomes here. My view is that the entire likely range of those outcomes is attractive, given this entry point. The current stock price reflects extreme shareholder fatigue, in my view. Portfolio managers have run out of patience waiting for the draft NPRM to exit interagency review. The monthly disappointments are agonizing. They know it has been written by the FCC. They know it is likely very favorable for NextNav. They don’t care. They worry something is fundamentally broken here.
Charles Frischer retweeted
This type of thing is fun to tweet, but it misses the point. Complexity isn’t the reason $NN has been weak, uncertainty is. The asset value has recently been made obvious, the regulatory alignment should be obvious, it’s the precise shape and timing of the ultimate outcome that are fuzzy; and that fuzziness clearly makes many uncomfortable.
The market doesn't understand $NN because it's too complicated, only fintwit is smart enough to understand the stock
Charles Frischer retweeted
$NN is part of Goldman's Non Profitable Tech Equity Index (GSX1NOPT), or so I'm told. We screen like trash and with rates up, it's a winning short. That will work until it doesn't.
Charles Frischer retweeted
The absolute worst case is failure to move forward. The FCC decides this is too hard and $NN has to take its meaningful cash runway go back to the drawing board.
I do not, however, consider that to be reasonably likely.
The worst reasonably likely scenario is a diminished version of the petition. Do the math at 5x5 and you will see its still a good outcome for shareholders.
I believe the FCC wants spectrum put to its highest and best use, though, so I don't think they have any interest in setting aside more than is strictly necessary for unlicensed use. All public signs still point to 5x10 as being workable and the preferred path of regulators.
Charles Frischer retweeted
If you are going to read just one primary source related to $NN, read the 2013 decision I linked to at the bottom of this tweet. It will show you how the FCC really thinks about Part 15.
The most relevant battle was decided in 2013 when an FCC orderestablished the rules of the road between NextNav’s subsidiary, Progeny LMS, and vociferously oppositional Part 15 manufacturers. Opposition sought a rulemaking to explicitly define “unacceptable levels of interference”; the FCC declined.
Instead, the Commission reaffirmed the subordinate status of Part 15 devices relative to the license holders: “we seek consistency with the Commission’s clear and repeated pronouncements that unlicensed devices in the 902-928 MHz band operate under Part 15 rules that offer no protection from harmful interference.”
Going further, the Commission stated: “the field test requirement does not create an obligation that M-LMS licensees protect particular unlicensed devices or models from interference, and it does not require an M-LMS licensee to avoid causing interference to particular unlicensed systems,” because to do so would “elevate the status of Part 15 operations in the band and undermine the established relationship between licensed and unlicensed operations.”
docs.fcc.gov/public/attachme…
Charles Frischer retweeted
At $12.35, NextNav trades for between 20 and 25 cents on the dollar. The vast discount is entirely due to regulatory uncertainty. The regulatory situation itself can be analyzed, and I will perhaps do another thread on that next, but the basics question is: do you think this FCC, which pushed Echostar and Grain into the arms of SPCX, and which approved the Anterix 5x5 R&O, is going to let the only other piece of low-band languish with 1995 rules? I think not.
Charles Frischer retweeted
At $2.35/pop, the post-petition 15 MHz nationwide NextNav license would be worth $11.8 billion or ~$58/share. At $2.02/pop, it would be worth ~$50/share. Both of these scenarios account for estimated deal costs.
Charles Frischer retweeted
When you match the licenses to the counties, you will get total licensed MHz-POPs of 4.75 billion. The usable MHz-POPs at 5x5, however, is just 3.4 billion. That means the apparent headline valuation of $1.68/MHz-POP dramatically understates what was paid. In terms of useable MHz-POPs, SPCX paid $2.35.
Charles Frischer retweeted
That’s not the real issue, though. As has been cited by a range of sources, including TMUS executives, this spectrum is practically 5x5, not 7x7. That’s because 7 MHz is not a standard channel width under 3GPP standards. As it stands, the owner of this spectrum gets no more than 10 MHz of useful spectrum with these licenses.
Charles Frischer retweeted
This 800 MHz spectrum has been referred to as 7x7, but that’s not quite accurate. The portfolio depth is not uniform. They fall short of 14 MHz in 14% of counties, with a range of 4.85 – 13.20 MHz in those counties.
Charles Frischer retweeted
Last week we saw the acquisition of 800 MHz spectrum for $8 billion by SpaceX.
This is the most relevant comparable transaction NextNav $NN has had or will have before it runs its own deal process (post-FCC process). It is vital that shareholders know how to interpret it. Maybe someone has broken down the math, but I haven’t seen it. So, I will lay out how I think about it here.
SpaceX is expanding into wireless service with a deal to buy cellular spectrum from Grain Management. on.wsj.com/4ycCSBz
$NN I understand we have strong support at key administrative levels but I believe they want to wait until after midterms. They don’t want any distractions before midterms. After midterms, full steam ahead.
$NN Given market trading, I assume NPRM won’t drop today. I think given the political nature of the opposition, Dec meeting post midterms looks most likely right now.
Ten concerts I have attended
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George Thorogood
The Cure
$OMER Comments from today's investor day with Novo. I think these words are quite bullish for Omeros and their partnership with Novo.
