the 1% that chooses dollars over delusion // founder, ceo chip capital (+$1m aum)
United States
Joined August 2023
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$IREN RSI hit my target. I sold.
$40k -> $440k 🫳🏼🫳🏼
Good enough for me.
I am a humble man.
I do not bitch.
I set an entry and exit.
Then execute without hesitation.
$IREN is now 10x the company it was in 2025. At roughly the same $20. But I don't give a fuck. Here's why:
In 2024, I used to be so excited about unprofitable companies (and don't start with $IREN latest ER. Net income was negative as defined by GAAP. This is a dictionary definition, not up to debate).
Felt so smart. Picking some shit at $5 and make $400K. I was so tough. And a bunch of influencers liked me. It was so cool.
The truth is none of that gay ass shit matters (except for the $400K part). No one cares. The market doesn't care. The influencers don't care. Dan and his brother give zero fucks (see their $800M RSU package; one year's worth of AI revenue per latest ER). Everyone is self-concerned. No one gives a shit about you.
Once (or if) you make your first $400K from $40K, you will see also. You will (hopefully) get rid of dumb sheep scarcity mindset, remove emotional goggles, and realize that mfers playing stupid-ass games. Pretending to hype up a stock in the name of engagement bait, liquidity, followers. Anything to get rich at your expense. Ring-around-the-rosie fake ass kumbaya shit.
And that the only truth is this: PnL is king. Nothing else matters. PnL. Now. Not silly 35 GW 10 years from now, not made-up (non-GAAP) prepayments definitions for GPUs with 25 asterisks and hedging statements. PnL. Now.
I realized that halfway through 2025. The stock hit $60. And I called $33. Then $22. Then $18. At my own expense. Lost influencer followers. Got a shit ton of hate for it.
Because I know the truth. Followers don't matter. What matters is cold, hard math now. And the only source of truth is PnL. Your PnL and the company's PnL.
The reason why I bring all this up is this: You go through all this shit on the upside and downside and realize it was for nothing. There's no reason to suffer. Market doesn't know you. Doesn't reward you for sticking it out. You're a tiny ass dot in the matrix. No one gives a fuck.
So your only two tasks are this:
1) Protect your PnL.
2) Be incredibly harsh on the PnL of anything you hold. The PnL cannot be gamed. It is a raw measure of performance. Nothing is as fundamental and strong as history of PnL.
And the reason is this: PnL is literally how much money you make and keep. Those two factors are what drive fundamental valuations. Full stop. That's it.
This is important because for how long are you going to "hold the bag" in hopes of actually making money? Where you have to play media PR (very hard work, by the way, with giant ass essays) every time something happens and hope someone else bids up the stock higher and realizes that no money has been made.
It was fun and games in 2024. But it's already 2027. For every year the company is unprofitable, you are pushing farther and farther to the right on the risk curve. There are already AI companies (capex sellers) making 300% revenue growth, 90% operating margins, and 90% ROIC that give greater gains. For PE <10. Rule of 40 greater than $PLTR AND they have zero debt!
They've already done the hard work on their PnL. Consecutively. For years at this point. And they're doing much harder work than plugging in GPUs and building a shell and arguing with hyperscalers. Do you know how fucking hard it is to make a chip compared to plugging them in?
When will you stop playing silly risk / reward games?
$IREN RSI hit my target. I sold.
$40k -> $440k 🫳🏼🫳🏼
Good enough for me.
I am a humble man.
I do not bitch.
I set an entry and exit.
Then execute without hesitation.
Needs to be repeated.
Will tell you exactly what is happening. And where the alpha is.
Market is getting upset over debt. And clumping all names in AI category together. Good. That delta is your alpha.
Your mission is simple and can be done in 1 hour: Find the AI names with high operating income, high operating margins (which I have been advocating for years at this point).
Additional requirement: Low debt.
These two items. NOW. Not in 1 year or 5 years. But now. At this current time.
The market wants absolute money making killing machines with low default risk.
Keep it simple. Don't overcomplicate with fancy prose.
Your brain has limited tokens. Keep the input clean.
Doing okay. All things considered.
I had a crash out yesterday.
Account $300K. Fine on finances. Mentally not so much.
But my systems are falling apart. I am breaking trading my rules. Think starting clinical rotations has been a tough transition.
See many surgeries, babies born, people die. Including colleagues. Before that, everything in a safe classroom. Textbook is much easier.
Anyways. Point is this: Can’t have everything. I am human. Balancing.
Will course correct with following: gratitude, pre- and post-flight checklists, reducing noise, prayer.
I had a crash out yesterday.
Account $300K. Fine on finances. Mentally not so much.
But my systems are falling apart. I am breaking trading my rules. Think starting clinical rotations has been a tough transition.
See many surgeries, babies born, people die. Including colleagues. Before that, everything in a safe classroom. Textbook is much easier.
Anyways. Point is this: Can’t have everything. I am human. Balancing.
Will course correct with following: gratitude, pre- and post-flight checklists, reducing noise, prayer.
I called this out before.
Tribal mfers.
Beware of investors who have turned a stock into their identity.
You know the accounts I’m talking about. Sometimes the warning is right in the username: All in in XYZ, XYZ Super Bull, XYZ Forever, XYZ to the Moon. Every post is about the same company. Every decline is a buying opportunity, every earnings report is brilliant, every competitor is inferior, and anyone who disagrees simply doesn’t understand the business.
At first glance, this looks like extraordinary conviction. But there’s a fine line between understanding a business deeply and becoming psychologically incapable of questioning it or living in a fashion where it becomes your identity. And the more publicly someone has committed to an opinion, the harder it becomes to reconsider it.
Here’s what makes this particularly dangerous. When your wealth, reputation, audience, and intellectual identity become attached to a single investment, changing your mind becomes enormously expensive emotionally. Selling the stock no longer feels like making a financial decision. It feels like admitting that everything you’ve been telling yourself and thousands of followers might have been wrong.
And that’s when something fascinating happens. You stop evaluating information and start defending a conclusion. Good news becomes evidence, bad news becomes an excuse, and legitimate criticism becomes a personal attack. You’re no longer researching the company to discover the truth. You’re researching it to protect what you already believe.
The greatest danger in investing isn’t being wrong. It’s becoming so emotionally invested in being right that you lose the ability to recognize when you’re wrong.
I’ve owned some businesses for well over a decade, and I understand the value of extraordinary conviction. But conviction should be the result of continuous examination, not a substitute for it. In fact, the longer you own a business, the more important it becomes to challenge your assumptions, because familiarity can quietly turn into complacency.
There’s also an important difference between knowing a company better than everyone else and believing you know it better than everyone else. One comes from years of curiosity, observation, and intellectual honesty. The other can come from nothing more than a rising stock price and an audience applauding your every opinion. A bull market has a remarkable ability to make confidence look like competence.
Here’s another uncomfortable truth. Once someone builds an audience around being bullish on a particular company, their incentives subtly change. They may begin telling followers what those followers want to hear rather than what they need to hear. The audience rewards certainty, while good investing demands the humility to live with uncertainty.
Never confuse loyalty to a company with loyalty to the truth. Companies don’t know you own their shares, and they certainly don’t owe you anything for believing in them.
Fall in love with the process of understanding businesses, not with the need for any particular business to prove you right. The goal of investing isn’t to defend yesterday’s decisions. It’s to make the best decisions you can with what you know today. Your portfolio should reflect your judgment. Your judgment should never become a prisoner of your portfolio.
🌹
Well said.
This Ai/neocloud/data center sell off is no different than a bitcoin bear market which is no different from a bear market in quantum or nuclear or silver or financials, etc.
Every sector goes through expansions and corrections.
Ideally you take profits or sell entirely as close as you can at the peaks when everyone is super happy and posting their screen shots and then average back in when everyone is bearish/complaining/as close as you can to the lows.
This is not easy by any means. I was pretty good at timing some peaks HPC peaks but I averaged back in a little early on most of these names.. this is life. I am only in shares and can easily wait it out.
Holding through the volatility of the expansion and correction phases as long as the thesis/fundamentals are improving is also an option but it seems by the comments/posts that this is probably not the best idea for the vast majority.
The one thing you don't want to do imo is sell now during the later stages of a correction or you will feel pretty dumb when the next expansion phase begins.
During the next expansion phase when you start seeing the screenshots come back out and everyone calls for higher forever I would start to take some profits, especially if you know you cannot deal with volatility and would be very upset if you had to sit through another high-beta sell off like this one.
Sorry for the novel, just my two cents.