the 1% that chooses dollars over delusion // founder, ceo chip capital (+$1m aum)
United States
Joined August 2023
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chip 🍪 retweeted
Poker, Investing, and the Art of Doing Nothing
I spent many hours playing poker today, and quite frankly, I couldn’t make anything happen. I was completely card dead, missed practically every flop, and couldn’t find a decent opportunity. I ended up losing a little money, but strangely enough, I walked away extremely satisfied with how I played. I didn’t tilt, chase losses, force marginal situations, or let boredom compromise my judgment.
And that got me thinking about something incredibly important in both poker and investing. We tend to associate success with positive outcomes and progress with activity, but sometimes the greatest demonstration of skill is knowing when to do absolutely nothing. Not because you’re afraid to act, but because the available opportunities simply don’t justify risking your capital.
Consider what happens after you’ve been card dead for 3 hours. Suddenly, mediocre hands begin looking attractive, questionable decisions become easier to justify, and you start feeling entitled to an opportunity simply because you’ve been waiting. The cards haven’t changed, but your standards have. And that’s where the real danger begins.
Investors experience precisely the same phenomenon. After months without finding an attractive investment, while everyone around them appears to be making fortunes, they begin lowering their standards and gambling. The investment opportunity hasn’t improved, but their tolerance for mediocrity has increased.
Patience and discipline arnt simply the ability to wait. It’s the ability to maintain your standards while waiting. Anyone can be disciplined when things are going well, but the real test comes when you’re bored, frustrated, losing money, or watching others succeed. That’s when emotional impulses begin competing with rational judgment.
There’s also something fascinating about how we evaluate success. You can play terrible poker and win, or play brilliantly and lose. The same applies to investing, where poor decisions can produce wonderful short term returns and excellent decisions can temporarily lose money. Confusing outcomes with decision quality is one of the most expensive mistakes you can make.
Perhaps the most underappreciated aspect of discipline is its invisible return. You’ll never know exactly how much money you saved by folding a questionable hand, avoiding an unnecessary bluff, or refusing to purchase an overpriced business. Yet those decisions can contribute enormously to your long term success.
Today, I lost a little money, but I played excellent poker, and I’m genuinely happy with that. The objective isn’t to make something happen, but to recognize when the odds favor you, act decisively when they do, and have the discipline to wait when they don’t. Sometimes the most profitable decision you’ll make all day is the one you wisely chose not to make.
If you enjoy my writing, consider reading my book that will be out around Xmas time.🌹
chip 🍪 retweeted
צ׳יפ כמובן צודק ב100%.
ללא קונטקסט, האיי אר אר הוא מטריק שלא אומר כלום.
זה נכון לניאוקלאודס וגם נכון לחברות אחרות עם מרווחים חלשים כמו אופן איי או אנתרופיק.
chip 🍪 retweeted
There are two types of investors;
1. Investors that want to be right.
2. Investors that want to make money.
Investors that want to be right are driven by bias and concern themselves with what they want to be true.
Investors that want to make money are driven by truth and concern themselves with what is actually true.
chip 🍪 retweeted
I cashed out $IREN in July based on fib seq only for it to run from $15 to $75. Ignored TA, FA.
Could have turned $40K into >$4M.
This time different. Technicals show:
>$76K -> Bullish.
$70K breakout -> Sell.
$86K breakout -> Hold.
FA shows:
$STRC at par, high liq, TAM $33T.
$IREN RSI hit my target. I sold.
$40k -> $440k 🫳🏼🫳🏼
Good enough for me.
I am a humble man.
I do not bitch.
I set an entry and exit.
Then execute without hesitation.
chip 🍪 retweeted
Investing is not a baseball team. I give zero fucks about criticizing things I own because I want the truth. Not delusion.
"Bear smack" is fake, bullshit sheep rhetoric.
teapaw.org/chiptomunk/status/2032…
chip 🍪 retweeted
I feel bad for anyone who is trading based on the garbage being shoveled by accounts like @KobeissiLetter @DeItaone @zerohedge. These accounts are going on mute.
My feed has been absolute dogshit over the last month.
"STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS CLOSED. OIL FUTURES RISE TO $100"
"SOME TANKERS TRANSITING HORMUZ. OIL FUTURES FALL TO LOD"
"TRUMP SAYS 'HIGH OIL PRICES ARE GOOD.' OIL SPIKES."
"TANKER DATA SHOWS NO HORMUZ TRAFFIC. OIL FUTURES SPIKE"
Just absolute unfiltered unadulterated slop being pumped into the ether every 20 minutes. It's not signal. It's just noise. The heads of state will either figure this out, or they won't. Oil will either arrive at refineries, or it won't.
I don't give a flying fuck what the Iranian state media says. I also don't hang on Trump's every word. It's an impossible way to spend your day.
chip 🍪 retweeted
I have a deep fascination with discovering how retarded the average person is.
You’ll never understand until you work customer service. Exposed to hundreds of unique people weekly.
Each one with a range of cognitive ability spanning from brilliant to genuinely stupid.
I want to make some kind of series exposing this.
You think everybody is like you. They’re not.
You think drug addicts are just you with addiction. They’re not.
You think poor people are just you with no money. They’re not.
You think criminals are just you but angry. They’re not.
They’re retards. Unfathomably, impressively stupid people. You just don’t get it
chip 🍪 retweeted
Bitcoin implied vol is now at 75%
This is the highest level since the ETF launch in 2024
It is also finally higher than gold volatility
Know it's a lot of pain right now, but this is all part of the process required for Bitcoin to make new highs
The melt up will be fast
chip 🍪 retweeted
Everyone is upset that gold and silver are pumping while Bitcoin and Ethereum trade flat.
However, this is not necessarily bearish.
The fact that two of the largest assets by market cap can still make explosive moves means that the same thing can happen in the future for BTC and ETH, which share similar narratives but have smaller market caps.
The truth is, the narrative for gold and silver hasn't really changed that much in the last decade.
In the 2010s, you bought gold and silver as a hedge against monetary debasement and as a raw input in tech.
The same narratives are being passed around today to explain the parabolic moves we're seeing, except the tech narrative is now AI.
The difference is that metals traded flat in the 2010s, but are now pumping in the 2020s.
The point I'm trying to make is that you can't always predict when the breakout happens, regardless how strong the fundamentals and the narratives are.
For all we know, crypto could be having the same moment as metals did in the 2010s, where it moved sideways for a while before exploding higher, after people largely checked out.
I used to think that Bitcoin and Ethereum would have diminishing returns moving forward, that the road from $100K to $1M BTC would take a long time.
However, watching gold and silver make their recent parabolic moves while being the two largest market cap assets is making me reconsider that.
If BTC continues to move sideways around $100K, it's possible that this may turn it into strong enough support to launch a parabolic move toward $1M in a matter of months.
ETH would also follow.
Of course, the narrative for BTC and ETH would likely remain unchanged, despite a parabolic move.
The question is: will you be along for the ride, having accumulated when BTC and ETH seemed like it would trend sideways forever.. or will you watch from the sidelines, having given up earlier?
$BTC $ETH $GOLD $GLD $SILVER $SLV
chip 🍪 retweeted
I feel genuinely bad for the people who have followed Dave Ramsey for the last decade.
Dude gives generally good advice. Don’t go into debt. Don’t overspend your income.
But his advice is no match for Weimar conditions.
Those that levered up massively between 2012 to 2021 are doing great.
Honest Savers have been obliterated.
chip 🍪 retweeted
As a speculator, specially as someone that spends and gets most of his/her information from X, nothing will do more damage to you than getting influenced my random people posting charts, thesis and ideas that shape or induce fear given the opposite views as yours.
This is your own journey.
Learn from others, try to understand their positions and their conviction plays but make your own conclusion.
This is you vs the market and most importantly you vs you.
You are never to blame your actions because of the words from others.
Take ownership or you will never make it.
Wins or losses it doesn’t matter. You need to train yourself to be able to trust your intuition regardless of outcome and after many many years in the markets you will find what works for you and your flow.
We are all in our own battle to level up in the simulation.
