CincData retweeted
Kalshi is lowkey doing 22.4% of last year’s total notional volume in a single day
last year’s total: $23.8B
yesterday’s total: $5.33B
we now take this as “normal”, but putting it into perspective…
this is wild
CincData retweeted
october was huge for prediction markets
$123.6B in total trading volume, up 58% MoM from September's $78.1B
a few highlights:
- @Kalshi: $98.2B (+61% MoM)
- @Polymarket: $20.3B (+55% MoM)
- @Kalshi now accounts for 79% of total volume
another all-time high
and the growth doesn't seem to be slowing down
CincData retweeted
just a reminder that weekly @Kalshi reports will be posted here:
whop.com/kalshidata
CincData retweeted
What type of people are successful on Kalshi?
We commissioned an independent third party to study our top traders. Here’s what they found:
Top traders are not limited to privileged or financial backgrounds.
-79% went to public school
-They are over 2x as likely to have worked retail or service jobs than on Wall Street
-65% are self-taught
The majority of top traders: :
-Actively seek out primary documents for research
-Actively seek out conflicting sources to challenge their beliefs
-Outperform the public on numeracy tests
The findings echo the foundational work of Philip Tetlock: the best forecasters are not subject matter experts. They tend to be otherwise-ordinary people who are intellectually humble, willing to do research, and think probabilistically instead of emotionally.
CincData retweeted
Kalshi Total Trading Volume in 2024: $1.9 Billion.
Kalshi Total Trading Volume YESTERDAY: $2.5 Billion.
CincData retweeted
Trade perps on Kalshi here:
kalshi.com/p/kalshidata
CincData retweeted
it seems like all the volume the sports category has lost over the last few weeks has been absorbed by exotics on @Kalshi
sports volume share decreased from roughly 75% to <30%, while sports + exotics volume share has remained at the same level (75%-80%) during the same period
any thoughts on why this has happened?
CincData retweeted
As liquidity concentrates on Kalshi, every new market becomes easier to launch and faster to scale.
In almost half the time as crypto markets, Kalshi has scaled its commodities prediction markets to $400M in monthly volume.
This is more than 4x crypto markets at the same point in their lifecycle.
CincData retweeted
what hits first?
- @kalshidata 1.4k followers
- @wogaam (me) 700 followers
2 followers away on both
CincData retweeted
we are in August and I still see poly airdrop bla, poly airdrop ble, poly airdrop blabla
meanwhile, @Kalshi keeps increasing the volume market share of their crypto category
starting the year at less than 5% and now averaging around 19%
it’s a 4x btw
maybe poly has a lot to learn from the kalshi crypto team…
