rockets & cathedrals
Joined September 2022
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conditionalZeppelin retweeted
I sincerely believe the biggest risk from AI is doomers inside the labs deliberately creating dangerous-but-not-extinction-level events to manufacture consent for a global AI regulatory framework. Do not trust or employ utilitarians with an eschatology.
Eugenics is bad for the same reason command economies are bad: because centralized authorities are shit at making the necessary sort of long-range judgement calls
conditionalZeppelin retweeted
It all follows a very predictable pattern:
1) Useful service that requires a great deal of social trust emerges.
2) Undesirables abuse the service.
3) Rules are put in place, which undesirables don’t follow.
4) Well-behaved users are inordinately punished by new rules.
My most unpopular opinion is that capitalism vs socialism is an increasingly meaningless distinction in the age of the totalitarian megastate.
conditionalZeppelin retweeted
I'm sorry I can't stop reading and re-reading this. No head of state has talked like this in probably 200 years. Today is something like a rebirth for the world and you need to stop and consider it deeply. This is the spirit that launched the Conquista and the Reconquista.
Muchos mensajes, análisis y comentarios como este, asegurando que las pandillas de Haití no son como las de El Salvador; que son sanguinarias, que están fuertemente armadas, que nadie ha podido vencerlas, que todas las misiones han fracasado, que estamos cayendo en una trampa, que no sabemos a lo que nos enfrentamos, que será nuestra ruina, que vamos camino a nuestro Waterloo.
Pero cuando Dios nos conceda la victoria, los mismos que hoy dicen todo eso cambiarán su discurso. Dirán que siempre fue fácil, que cualquiera podía hacerlo, que las pandillas de Haití no eran tan peligrosas como se pensaba.
En fin, nunca los hemos escuchado y no vamos a empezar ahora.
Todos los que se han enlistado son creyentes y hemos encomendado esta misión a Dios, mientras que las pandillas de Haití son satánicas y es de conocimiento público que hacen sacrificios humanos.
Dios nos concederá la victoria. El Creador del Universo está con nosotros.
Deuteronomio 28:7
“Jehová derrotará a tus enemigos que se levantaren contra ti; por un camino saldrán contra ti, y por siete caminos huirán de delante de ti”.
Nothing prepares you for how pissed everyone gets when you have a baby and don’t turn into an overtired basket case.
Many people’s cope rely on this being a major tradeoff in the quality of your life that it just isn’t.
This quoted post is unavailable.
The scalable alternative to MAID is dying gracefully of your appointed ailment when the time comes.
conditionalZeppelin retweeted
Turns out there's a livestream straight from the JLCPCB factory where you can watch PCBs being manufactured in real time:
conditionalZeppelin retweeted
Cell phone addiction is an absolute thermonuke to the brain and nobody 'takes it seriously' because it is not clear that there is any solution in a world where the revealed preference of everyone across the globe, regardless of income, race, age, any factor whatsoever, would rather be on their phone than do *anything* else. Deciding "I use this too much" and meaningfully altering one's behaviour doesn't seem to have much success for any of the very small minority of people with the sentience or self-reflection to realize how bad it is. Most people seem to think of it as an unproductive habit at most, rather than an addiction. Any attempt to speak seriously about this is met with derision, accusations of pretentiousness. There is no real solution to it. The future of human cognition fifty years down the line is horrifying if you stop and think about it for even a moment.
conditionalZeppelin retweeted
Reindustrialization isn’t buying a $320 made in the USA sweater that can be bought for less than $10 in multiple other countries.
It’s not about getting a billion dollar valuation on your startup that has never built a real product that has a multi-million dollar contract from a government that spent 2 trillion more than it took in this year.
It’s not about looking cool** and it’s not about getting asset-price rich on mystery money.
Reindustrialization is about 4 things.
Until we have those 4, it ain’t going to happen.
Let me tell you a short story.
We had a supplier in China with a coal boiler.
The coal boiler belched dark soot into the air.
One day the government came in and said “you can’t use your coal boiler anymore. Replace it with a natural gas one; the coal is dirtying up the air.”
The factory would have to shut down for months.
No money for the boss.
No work for the employees.
And no orders for me.
“How long will the orders be delayed?”
“They won’t.”
“And how will you do that?”
“Don’t worry about it.”
The orders shipped on time.
How?
The factory switched to working nights.
The black smoke from the coal boiler couldn’t be seen in the dark night sky.
At the same time they installed a new natural gas boiler during the day.
By the way, this boiler was bigger than two semi trailer trucks side by side, literally it is beyond most people’s comprehension.
And that’s the point.
Reindustrialization is beyond peoples’ comprehension in America.
1. You need to have a government that does the right thing
2. You need to have factory ownership that is hungry for business
3. You need to have workers who are willing to make big sacrifices
4. And then everyone around them needs to be able tolerate the black smoke from the coal boiler
We don’t have any of these things today.
Will that change?
Maybe, but overpriced sweaters and billion dollar valuations on vaporware is not how we’re going to get there.
conditionalZeppelin retweeted
We are going to colonize the stars and spread the Kingdom of God to all corners of His creation
Growing up, it seemed the world was full of deliberately engineered loopholes in a system that nominally allowed nothing good to happen, ever. Everybody knew that if you actually followed the rules, your life would be over before it started, but luckily you didn't have to. It was a delicate balance of power between the wise elders and the karens.
Since then, the Karens won and the loopholes have mostly all been closed. The rest will be soon. We're building a shockingly unlivable world.
"The correct response to someone who says 'we cannot go back' is to say, 'I know, but I'm calling it forward!'"
--Scruton
I suspect that relative to the present, the future is going to look much more like the future in some ways, and much more like the past in others.
conditionalZeppelin retweeted
"Old people restructured society into something young people no longer desire to continue." I wish more people would take this idea seriously. BAP's "why is ISIS not better?" playing out in the revealed preferences of young people.
One of the things old people do that appears to piss off nearly every young person is assume all problems in dating stem from a knowledge gap
The olds believe they just have to “tell young people where the girls are” or “suggest they talk to girls,” because the young people must not know - otherwise they would be doing it!
It never occurs to them that both men and women know where to find each other, and they already realize that talking is a prerequisite to forming relationships
The reason they’re not doing these things is because people mutually value coed companionship less now. The value proposition of a relationship is worse for both sides than it used to be, so less people seek them out
Old people restructured society into something young people no longer desire to continue. You cannot fix that with advice about attending yoga class
conditionalZeppelin retweeted
"Old people restructured society into something young people no longer desire to continue."
Put simply: marriage and having children used to be a clear net economic gain for men and women and now it's a clear net economic loss.
That's the crux of the issue
One of the things old people do that appears to piss off nearly every young person is assume all problems in dating stem from a knowledge gap
The olds believe they just have to “tell young people where the girls are” or “suggest they talk to girls,” because the young people must not know - otherwise they would be doing it!
It never occurs to them that both men and women know where to find each other, and they already realize that talking is a prerequisite to forming relationships
The reason they’re not doing these things is because people mutually value coed companionship less now. The value proposition of a relationship is worse for both sides than it used to be, so less people seek them out
Old people restructured society into something young people no longer desire to continue. You cannot fix that with advice about attending yoga class