OkaForPrez

Michigan / UConn (Boston) The rematch of last year’s National Championship goes down tonight at the Boston Celtics arena. KenPom had this technically listed as a ‘Neutral’ venue which is partly why it was projected at -4 on his site, sat around -6 for the first two days in the market, and now has been pushed up to –7.5 in spots. Ken actually changed that to 'Semi-Home' for UConn, which has pushed his projected spread to around 5. The first thing that stands out to me is the potential Dan Hurley revenge factor. I tend to not value that stuff as much as the market (because you typically have to overpay for it), but for a maniacal competitor like him, I may be willing to buy it in this instance. Mo Thiam missed Michigan’s first game with an illness but is expected to play (and likely start) in this one. Braylon Mullins is a tad gimpy with the knee injury he has been fighting for a few weeks now. He should also play, but I think it is fair to question whether these guys are actually 100% for this matchup Can that National Championship game tell us anything about this matchup even with some turnover in personnel? Elliot Cadeau semi-carried Michigan offensively by getting to the FT line against a very physical defense whose style of play does leave them susceptible to volume discrepancies at the charity stripe. Silas Demary was also nowhere near fully healthy during the Tournament, and the worst thing you can say about his defense, when healthy, is that he is a Top 5 point-of-attack defender in the sport. Demary also only made it 21 minutes due to fouling out and was a total non-factor offensively. I would guess that is very much not the case this go-around. UConn also beat the Wolverines on the glass 46-39, but 25 of those 46 rebounds are now gone (Karaban/Tarris). The other thing is the assists – these groups combined for 16 total? These squads going 11-48 from 3P range likely does not help that, but these defenses are still the types where you need guys who can make plays off the bounce in isolation Making plays off the bounce in isolation ESPECIALLY applies to Michigan in this spot as UConn is annually one of the most diligent defenses when it comes to running opponents off the 3P line and limiting catch & shoot opportunities. In that sense, this feels like the type of matchup where not having Brandon McCoy could really hurt if Trey McKenney cannot show some secondary creation ability. Before the injury, anything you got from McKenney this year in the playmaking department was more icing on the cake, but now it is an absolute necessity for this offense that he can take a step forward. Cadeau is an awesome point guard, but if you are going to put most/nearly all of the playmaking workload on his shoulders, then the Wolverines run the risk of offensive stagnation especially in a matchup with one of the best on-ball defenders in the country. Anytime that UConn plays a team with a double big lineup, the individual matchup at the PF spot will always be a huge leverage point within the game. Nik Khamenia has looked really good in the lead up to the season, and while he certainly gives you a lot of what Karaban contributed from that position, he is also a pretty slight frame at 6’8. On the other side, JP Estrella was a Top 10 OREB% in the nation last year and is a bruising 6’11 paint beast. When matched up on the inside, it is definitely advantage Wolverines. However, for all those advantages Estrella will have inside are the same ones that Khamenia will have on the perimeter at the other end. Few offenses run guys through as many screens with as much misdirection as UConn, and with Boynton being the defensive coordinator from last year, I imagine we will see a similar 1 through 4 switch scheme, and there is a decent chance it is Estrella dropping into the paint while the more mobile/switchable Thiam moves around the floor. Regardless of which big has to travel defensively, I also think it is a much different proposition switching when you have guys like Morez Johnson and Yaxel Lendeborg at the SF/PF spots compared to Roddy Gayle + Estrella/Thiam. We’ll see. Michigan allowed a nearly 50% 3PRate in the Championship game, and I imagine we will see a lot of the same in this matchup with the way they plug driving lanes and pack in their defense to be elite at the rim. UConn has generally shot under expectation from the arc in each of the last two years (Mullins + Ball last season especially). Over the past two seasons, when UConn has shot 35%+ from 3P range, they are 32-6. In games they shoot 40%, they’re 19-2. When they don’t shoot at least 35% from 3, they’re 26-11 during that same span. Allowing UConn to get their 3’s off is always a dangerous proposition and likely the Huskies’ best opportunity to lead this wire-to-wire. We also need to talk about Najai Hines. In the three scrimmages + opening game, he is running a 6.8 fouls called per 40 mark. The best frontcourt in those four games was Michigan State’s, and even Sparty fans would tell you that unit is much weaker than in years past. Hines fouled out in 17 minutes during that scrimmage. UConn is going to hedge ball screens, which means he will be in the line of fire to pick up fouls, and Cadeau will absolutely push the envelope in that area. The best version of the Huskies is undoubtedly with Hines in the lineup as his ceiling outcome for this season is one of the better rebounders and rim protectors in the country. He also cannot do that if he is constantly fouling his way off the floor even if Giltay is a really good backup to have. On the interior, I would favor Thiam/Estrella over UConn’s options, but I also just saw Michigan be outrebounded by not just a Horizon frontcourt but a zone defense Horizon frontcourt. Thiam or not Thiam, there is absolutely no reason the Wolverines should be surrendering a 44.7% OREB% to Oakland. None. Zero. If they are going to get beat on the glass in this one, they are going to be swimming upstream from the opening tip. I just see a lot more paths to UConn being able to dictate this game, and so long as they do not shoot poorly from the perimeter, the paths for Michigan are more limited. If they do not get good games from both Cadeau & McKenney, they are probably in trouble, so the margin for error is really thin this early in the season against such a finely tuned machine like UConn. Maybe aside from Duke, I don’t know if any team looked as much in midseason form during scrimmages as UConn did when they absolutely woodshedded Purdue and Syracuse then won in the Breslin Center. We also need to discuss this spread. It is now -5ish on KenPom but sits at 7.5 across most of the market. Michigan being ranked 30th means that they are much more likely to be undervalued at that rank than overvalued, but the money keeps pouring in on UConn. The Huskies are ranked 9th analytically—I would be pretty shocked to see them finish that low by the end of the year. Hypothetically speaking, if you gave them the 3rd/4th best Net Rating in the country like where I tend to project them at, that’s only ‘technically’ 5-6 spots difference but those 5 to 6 spots also would have this line around 7.5 to 7.8, and that is before accounting for any sort of venue/location advantage. I could be wrong, but this feels a little like a levels game to me. UConn probably does not blow them out (although that is certainly within the range of outcomes) but I see them keeping Michigan at arm’s distance most of the game. There are also a few props worth checking out as Khamenia likely gets some decent 3P volume in this spot. In the games Hines doesn’t foul, he’ll go over a mid-single digit rebounding prop more times than not, but he could also play less than 20 minutes which would put more pressure on his already lofty rates. The way UConn limits catch & shoot opportunities, and with the way their defense hedges the ball out of point guards’ hands, Cadeau’s assist upside may be limited. Michigan is also going to be in deep doodoo in this game if Cadeau cannot reach his points prop, and he’ll likely have 7+ FTAs given his usage and UConn's physical defensive nature Dan Hurley vs Mike Boynton? Yeah. Willing to be wrong but this spot is all Huskies for me personally