Cycle Investment Strategy

Live portfolio of the newsletter service stands at 28,77% YTD. After 104% in 2025. Lost some costumers this year because we missed the AI trade. Yeah maybe, on days like today it feels like we did not missed too much. Next ventures will be in asset management. We will continue to share the research though! Stay tuned.

This will very likely be a super strong monthly close for #oil. It'll be interesting to see what November brings and whether we break free above the next resistance range. Once again, the elevated price level is confirming itself over a sustained period — exactly the higher regime we’ve been pointing to, rather than just a spike that fades. Clear that past the 106 level, there’s little standing in the way before the old highs come back into play.

Big continuation of $PSCE outperformance versus $SILJ. A lot of people questioned why we rotated out of silver juniors and into energy... well, the ratio keeps breaking higher, and the switch is paying off exactly as laid out. Sometimes the best move is changing seats before the crowd does.

The capex cycle is just starting! early.

🥹

Did you guys know that the logo on the right never existed? I only know what this horn is because of the logo, but ask AI and it was never their logo. Yet many people remember it, and it's way too specific to be a coincidence. It's called the Mandela effect, and in combination with the double slit experiment it's strong evidence that we live in a matrix. All you can do to find truth is pattern recognition. #cycles

Decision time for $SPGSCI — it really looks like we’ll see a breakout in the #commodity index any time now. The structure is coiling tighter and tighter, and a move out of this range should set the tone for the whole complex.

Decent strength for #oil again into the close, with a nice inside candle when you look closely. Momentum stays firmly on the bulls’ side!

Deindustrialisation, combined with AI disrupting white collar jobs and the sharp rise in the cost of living, is the perfect storm for the German middle class. 2027 will only accelerate it. It's sad, but people voted for this situation we are in and got tricked by the false promises to change course by the current gov party.

$EWZ sold off hard after Lula’s surprising win this week, while markets had positioned for a Bolsonaro victory. The fundamental thesis stays the same: with the commodity boom underway, Brazilian equities should benefit immensely over time. A change in government would have been the cleaner positive catalyst — but this isn’t Lula’s first term, and these equities have lived through it before.

This is just one beautiful-looking chart from $RIG, slowly but steadily leaving its base!

$OIH is consolidating after its breakout from the multi-year range, building a flag before its next move higher. Zooming out, this is what the early innings of a structural cycle look like. Years of underinvestment across the entire #oil services space are now meeting a world that still runs on - and needs more - energy. Capital is only just beginning to rotate back into a sector the market spent a decade writing off. As we said back in September: this cycle has only just begun.

Also, US #oil production has not yet responded to the price spike. Despite (supposedly) high prices, the current level is not yet incentivizing an expansion of US output.

Big breakout for $XLE on the monthly chart as well, gaining some real momentum here. The path stays clear — while keeping in mind that consolidations in a market like this will always occur along the way!

Bring on the EWZ and ILF gap down. Thats going to be nasty.

We have started adding less of what I would consider 'noise' to our reports. They are now more to the point of our thesis and thoughts, rather than just summarizing developments. In the age of AI, it is all about curating focus and prioritizing signal over noise