Political analyst, recovering strategist, PhD, Isrl-Pal/ME, & other global stuff, @haaretzcom, @BBCWorld, @CenturyIntl, Board member, @2states1homelan
Joined January 2011
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My book, "The Crooked Timber of Democracy in #Israel: Promise Unfulfilled" is out in paperback, available & affordable on Amazon & @degruyter_pub. It was first published 3 weeks before the war; I still can't tell if everything's changed, or nothing. amazon.com/Crooked-Timber-De…
On Brazil: "Lula defied polls" - true, but polls were also not wrong. He won by 2.5% points. In final 2nd round polls Bolsonaro led by a range of 0.12 to 2pt., known MoE were larger than lead. In sum, super close. 1st round - many correctly showed Bols victory.
Lesson learned/reaffirmed: when polls are that close btwn two figures, you really can't know. In Isrl, 7 out of pollsters show Netanyahu bloc short of 61. Six of 8 pollsters show his bloc well below. For example...
Last poll by Kantar for Isrl Hayom: 42.3% for all coalition parties including Winter. Opp parties (including Reservists cos they are not openly for BB): 56.5%. Opp>14 pt lead over gov. Very typical spread for the 6 pollsters. If all of them are wrong they're in deep sh*t
קשה להתווכח עם @RavivDrucker כי הוא צודק לגבי הבחירות הבאות ועל כל דבר אחר כאן haaretz.co.il/opinions/2026-…
1001 journos asked me "can Israelis from abroad tip the balance," & to each one I replied that we don't have satisfactory data. Now, finally, some cool data. For example: 74K more Israelis in the country now than "a regular day in Oct" - & more. calcalist.co.il/local_news/a…
Campaign spots just the way I like em. 36 seconds of pure simple genius, sweet & simple as they come.
I doubt many of my followers here are undecided Israeli voters. But if you know any, read them my list of the iconic moments of the 37th govt of Israel. @haaretzcom haaretz.com/israel-news/elec…
Dahlia Scheindlin retweeted
Still undecided? • Here are some of the horrors brought upon us by Israel's 37th government | @dahliasc haaretz.com/israel-news/elec…
According to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics, 2022 vs. 2026 - the portion of voters who are ultra-Orthodox declined from 11% to 10.5% & Arabs rose from 17 to 18%. Interesting.
Dahlia Scheindlin retweeted
What's at stake in Israel's upcoming elections? Tune into this great @BrookingsFP event, starting momentarily at 10am ET featuring @braunold @dahliasc @ThairAbu @TheJeremyMan w/thanks to @HadyAmr for recruiting an all star panel! brookings.edu/events/whats-a…
Dahlia Scheindlin retweeted
שמחתי להתראיין למאמר של @dahliasc ב-@guardian על הקשר בין ההפיכה המשטרית לתוכניות הלימודים, למשל באזרחות. theguardian.com/world/commen…
What about the day after Israeli elections? What then? My analysis of what needs to happen for Israel to do better. @guardian theguardian.com/world/commen…
Dahlia Scheindlin retweeted
After 3 disastrous years, Israel needs to rethink itself. A new government would be a start. Only a clear opposition victory would let us begin to heal, strengthen democracy and establish Palestinian rights
By @dahliasc
theguardian.com/world/commen…
Dahlia Scheindlin retweeted
Don't call them Jewish terrorists, they are Israeli terrorists | @dahliasc haaretz.com/west-bank/2026-1…
Did Trump's endorsement matter for Netanyahu & why is he so stuck? My analysis of poll updates & Israeli election stuff, on @CNN @cnni with *excellent* questions from @biannagolodryga edition.cnn.com/2026/10/19/t…
