Options trader. My tweets are not investment advice.

Joined October 2010
Hello everyone, welcome to my Patreon page with Discord support. In DYOptions Trading Discord, you will see my daily trades with prices &options strategies used. Please show your support for sharing my trading activities. Join my Discord at patreon.com/DYOptions. Love you all๐Ÿ™
83
28
7
321
$SPCX 328 million new shares will also unlock on Oct. 24
$SPCX - Two full trading days after the company reports its third-quarter earnings, 1.3 billion new shares will become eligible for sale (which is tomorrow) - 328 million new shares will also unlock on Oct. 24 -Yahoo Finance
1
1
4
2,538
DYOptions retweeted
Thatโ€™s a stark warning. Hyperscalers need to reign in CapEx, especially with cash flows turning negative. The fact of the matter is, they havenโ€™t indicated whether they expect stronger revenue growth ahead or if there's another driver or reason. All eyes are on CapEx and top line guidance this week. Meta raising CapEx guidance without providing clear revenue visibility was a massive warning signal for the market already.
๐Ÿšจ TWO MAJOR RESEARCH FIRMS ARE WARNING ABOUT A POTENTIAL MULTI TRILLION DOLLAR AI DISASTER. TS Lombard and Gartner have released some shocking estimates about what could happen if the AI spending boom collapses. According to TS Lombard's Dario Perkins, a sharp collapse in AI spending could trigger: โ€ข S&P 500 crashing 30%. โ€ข Tech stocks plunging 40%. โ€ข $125โ€“190 BILLION in credit losses. โ€ข Around 800,000 jobs lost. โ€ข More than $20 TRILLION in stock market value wiped out. And now Gartner has issued an even more disturbing warning about the money being poured into AI infrastructure. According to Gartner: โ€ข AI companies are expected to spend nearly $1 TRILLION on infrastructure in 2026 alone. โ€ข Another $6 TRILLION could be spent between 2027 and 2030. โ€ข AI data center owners would need to generate $8.5 TRILLION in revenue through 2030 to cover spending, financing costs and earn a 12% return. โ€ข But Gartner expects no more than $3.6 TRILLION in AI revenue attributable to data centers during that period. That's a nearly $5 TRILLION gap between the revenue needed to justify the investments and the revenue Gartner expects. And the situation gets even worse. Gartner warns that more than $3.5 TRILLION in AI infrastructure spending could be exposed to impairment by 2030. By 2032, more than $4 TRILLION in asset value could be at risk of write-downs. It also predicts that over 80% of neocloud providers could cease operating independently by 2030. The biggest problem is that these companies are spending enormous amounts of money on GPUs and data centers that could become outdated before they generate enough revenue to recover their costs. And the stock market is heavily exposed. The Magnificent 7 alone account for roughly 35% of the S&P 500's market value. All seven have significant exposure to AI through their businesses, investments or infrastructure spending. If AI companies start cutting spending, chipmakers, cloud providers and data center operators could all take a massive hit. With AI-related debt potentially reaching $2.9 TRILLION by 2027, the damage could spread to banks and other lenders as well. This is no longer just about whether AI companies are overvalued. The bigger risk is that trillions of dollars are being invested in infrastructure that may never generate enough profit to justify its cost. And if the AI spending boom suddenly reverses, the damage could spread far beyond technology stocks. A $20 trillion market crash is a scenario, not a certainty, but the amount of money at risk is becoming impossible to ignore.
7
2
26
7,884
Another type of compute glut
๐Ÿ”ฅ ์—”๋น„๋””์•„ RTX ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”ฝ์นด๋“œ ์“ฐ์‹œ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ถ„๋“ค ๊ผญ ๋ณด์„ธ์š”!!!!! ๐Ÿ”ฅ ํ•ด์™ธ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ง„์งœ ๋‚œ๋ฆฌ์ธ๋ฐ... ๊ตญ๋‚ด์—์„œ๋Š” ์•„์ง ์ž˜ ์•ˆํผ์ง„ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์•„ ๊ณต์œ ๋“œ๋ฆฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค!!! --> ๋ฉฐ์น ์ „.. ์—”๋น„๋””์•„๊ฐ€ RTX์— ๊ฑธ์–ด๋‘” "AI ์—ฐ์‚ฐ ์ œํ•œ"์„... ์ตœ๊ทผ์— ๊ณต๊ฐœ๋œ ์˜คํ”ˆ์†Œ์Šค๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ํ’€์–ด๋ฒ„๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฆ„ GPU-Unlock์ธ๋ฐ... ์ƒˆ ๊ธ€์นด ์•ˆ ์‚ฌ๊ณ , ์˜ค๋ฒ„ํด๋Ÿญ๋„ ์•ˆ ํ•˜๊ณ , ์ œํ•œ๋งŒ ํ’€์—ˆ๋”๋‹ˆ.. ์•„๋ž˜์™€ ๊ฐ™์ด ์„ฑ๋Šฅ ํ–ฅ์ƒ์ด ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. RTX 3060 --> +78~99% RTX 3070 --> +72~81% RTX 3080 --> +68~73% RTX 3090 Ti --> BF16 +80% RTX 4070 Ti --> +83~84% RTX 4090 --> ํŠน์ • Tensor ๊ฑฐ์˜ 2๋ฐฐ RTX 2080 Ti๋„ --> +36~64% --> RTX 3000๋Œ€๋งŒ์˜ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 20 / 30 / 40 ์‹œ๋ฆฌ์ฆˆ๊นŒ์ง€, ๋ฐ์Šคํฌํƒ‘์ด๋ž‘ ๋…ธํŠธ๋ถ ์ชฝ ์‹ค์ธก๋„ ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ณ„์† ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„์œผ๋กœ ์Œ“์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. โญ๏ธ AI ์ด๋ฏธ์ง€ ์ƒ์„ฑ์ด๋‚˜ ๋กœ์ปฌ LLM ๋Œ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ถ„๋“ค์€ ํŠนํžˆ ์ฒด๊ฐ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค!! โญ๏ธ ์ง„์งœ ์™œ ์ด๊ฒŒ ๋ฏธ์นœ๋“ฏ์ด ๋‚œ๋ฆฌ๋ƒ๋ฉด... ๋‚ด ์ง‘์— ์žˆ๋Š” RTX ๊ธ€์นด ์•ˆ์— "์“ธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ ์ž ๊ฒจ ์žˆ๋˜" AI ์„ฑ๋Šฅ์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์™œ ์—”๋น„๋””์•„๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ–ˆ๋ƒ๊ณ  ์ง€๊ธˆ ์˜์‹ฌ์ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋งŽ์ด ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ชฝ์€.. --> ์ง€ํฌ์Šค๋ž‘ ๋น„์‹ผ ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€์šฉ GPU๋ฅผ ๋“ฑ๊ธ‰์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„๋ ค๊ณ  FP16/BF16 ์ชฝ์„ ์ผ๋ถ€๋Ÿฌ ๊นŽ์•„๋‘” ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๋Š” ์ชฝ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. (์•„์ง ์—”๋น„๋””์•„๊ฐ€ ๊ณต์‹์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ธ์ •ํ•œ ๊ฑด ์•„๋‹˜) ์ด๋ฏธ ์‚ฐ ์˜›๋‚  RTX ๊ธ€์นด์— ์ด๋งŒํผ ์„ฑ๋Šฅ์„ ์—”๋น„๋””์•„๊ฐ€ ๋ง‰์•„๋‘๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค ์ž์ฒด๊ฐ€ ๋„ˆ๋ฌด๋„ˆ๋ฌด ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค... ์˜คํ”ˆ์†Œ์Šค ๊นƒํ—ˆ๋ธŒ: github.com/Zagitta/gpu-unlocโ€ฆ 40 ์‹œ๋ฆฌ์ฆˆ ํ™•์žฅ ๊นƒํ—ˆ๋ธŒ: github.com/JustAResearcher/gโ€ฆ
2,456
DYOptions retweeted
Nice recap ๐Ÿ˜‚
Very weird Sunday US pentagon 90 day resource stockpile, Brazil stolen election, UK power grid down, king tides in FL, full moon, Netanyahu tweeting out a nuclear bomb picture and Elon saying neoclouds to zero
1
1
12
6,150
DYOptions retweeted
Is this normal
๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง BREAKING: Over 271,000 homes in the United Kingdom are out of power right now What is causing these massive blackouts?
1
3
16
6,817
DYOptions retweeted
Most investors haven't yet realized that cheap money is gone and that doesn't bode well for capital intensive stocks
6
6
77
7,761
DYOptions retweeted
Dug out my Walkman for my 90 day prep list. Didnโ€™t realize this thing was worth $100. Holy
1
1
25
4,689
DYOptions retweeted
DeepSeek is making AI inference ridiculously cheap. Lower inference costs leads to less compute required per task which means fewer GPUs needed to serve the same demand. If AI demand doesnโ€™t grow fast enough to offset these efficiency gains it will lead to compute glut.
Replying to @data168
what are you implying? ๐Ÿง
5
2
1
14
5,880
DYOptions retweeted
For options traders this means sticking to options that are at least 90 days out.
FORTRESS: The Pentagon is preparing every major U.S. military base to survive 90 days without outside support โ€” no civilian power grid, no global supply chains, no outside fuel or water. The initiative, revealed in documents reviewed by Fox News Digital, envisions portable nuclear reactors, massive battery storage, and microgrids that can disconnect installations from civilian electricity entirely. Strategic reserves of munitions, fuel, critical minerals, and medical supplies would be stockpiled based on wartime consumption rates. Civilian factories are being pre-identified to shift to defense production during a crisis. Pentagon chief spokesperson Sean Parnell put it bluntly: "Power is combat now. Without electricity, you lose communications, water, logistics, assembly lines and just basic military command structures." Full story here foxnews.com/politics/inside-โ€ฆ
1
1
32
7,138
Nice recap ๐Ÿ˜‚
Very weird Sunday US pentagon 90 day resource stockpile, Brazil stolen election, UK power grid down, king tides in FL, full moon, Netanyahu tweeting out a nuclear bomb picture and Elon saying neoclouds to zero
1
1
12
6,150
Most investors haven't yet realized that cheap money is gone and that doesn't bode well for capital intensive stocks
6
6
77
7,761
85% votes counted. Lula wins. It's over.
Lula overtakes Bolsonaro now
1
11
5,233
Lula overtakes Bolsonaro now
This is close.
2
1
1
11
7,453
Is this normal
๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง BREAKING: Over 271,000 homes in the United Kingdom are out of power right now What is causing these massive blackouts?
1
3
16
6,817
If you're wondering if I'm still bullish on $IREN: Iโ€™m holding my core position, but Iโ€™m definitely less bullish. I haven't been buying dips on leaps recently because debt CDS and falling token prices have made me really cautious. If Warsh sticks to his hawkish stance, I will very likely sell out of my $IREN positions entirely. Compared to a previous long-term hold like $ROKU, which was unique, massive user base, low capex, and +FCF, you can understand my hesitation on $IREN. It comes down to risk management: without a clear path forward, Iโ€™d rather not hold it.
14
1
1
39
11,147
This is close.
4
3
1
9
7,096
๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘€
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much. As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesnโ€™t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but weโ€™re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue. That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
2
1
12
5,393
DYOptions retweeted
On the bright side, without a free fall in token prices and a compute glut, the next generation of AI companies couldn't exist. It was only after the collapse of the Web 1.0 infrastructure layer that Web 2.0 and tech giants, like Netflix, Amazon Prime, smartphones, and Google Map could rise and benefit the masses.
DeepSeek is causing a compute glut. Unfortunately, this looks more and more like the 2000's internet boom, where a massive bandwidth glut led to the downfall of companies like Cisco, JDSU, Nortel and WorldCom.
4
27
6,328
Dug out my Walkman for my 90 day prep list. Didnโ€™t realize this thing was worth $100. Holy
1
1
25
4,689
WTF, $3000 Samsung TV has an always-on mic, automatic content recognition, geo tracking, network mapping, and ships your data to Samsung + 400 partners. Bro Rooted a brand-new 2025 Samsung TV after noticing absurdly targeted ads. Firmware was locked down, so zero-days it was. Got a root shell. then found: always-on voice service, ACR, geo, full telemetry pipeline, and four separate DRM systems. This isnโ€™t a bug, Itโ€™s the product bro.
i own a relatively new (2025) samsung tv. i kept getting weirdly targeted ads. i tried reversing the firmware but it was aes encrypted and no keys unless tear it apart and do uart/jtag magic. zero days it is. root shell on new samsung TVs! discovered PRIVACY HORROR. write up?
533
2,844
654
20,708
3,080,597