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Thatโs a stark warning. Hyperscalers need to reign in CapEx, especially with cash flows turning negative.
The fact of the matter is, they havenโt indicated whether they expect stronger revenue growth ahead or if there's another driver or reason.
All eyes are on CapEx and top line guidance this week. Meta raising CapEx guidance without providing clear revenue visibility was a massive warning signal for the market already.
๐จ TWO MAJOR RESEARCH FIRMS ARE WARNING ABOUT A POTENTIAL MULTI TRILLION DOLLAR AI DISASTER.
TS Lombard and Gartner have released some shocking estimates about what could happen if the AI spending boom collapses.
According to TS Lombard's Dario Perkins, a sharp collapse in AI spending could trigger:
โข S&P 500 crashing 30%.
โข Tech stocks plunging 40%.
โข $125โ190 BILLION in credit losses.
โข Around 800,000 jobs lost.
โข More than $20 TRILLION in stock market value wiped out.
And now Gartner has issued an even more disturbing warning about the money being poured into AI infrastructure.
According to Gartner:
โข AI companies are expected to spend nearly $1 TRILLION on infrastructure in 2026 alone.
โข Another $6 TRILLION could be spent between 2027 and 2030.
โข AI data center owners would need to generate $8.5 TRILLION in revenue through 2030 to cover spending, financing costs and earn a 12% return.
โข But Gartner expects no more than $3.6 TRILLION in AI revenue attributable to data centers during that period.
That's a nearly $5 TRILLION gap between the revenue needed to justify the investments and the revenue Gartner expects.
And the situation gets even worse.
Gartner warns that more than $3.5 TRILLION in AI infrastructure spending could be exposed to impairment by 2030.
By 2032, more than $4 TRILLION in asset value could be at risk of write-downs.
It also predicts that over 80% of neocloud providers could cease operating independently by 2030.
The biggest problem is that these companies are spending enormous amounts of money on GPUs and data centers that could become outdated before they generate enough revenue to recover their costs.
And the stock market is heavily exposed.
The Magnificent 7 alone account for roughly 35% of the S&P 500's market value.
All seven have significant exposure to AI through their businesses, investments or infrastructure spending.
If AI companies start cutting spending, chipmakers, cloud providers and data center operators could all take a massive hit.
With AI-related debt potentially reaching $2.9 TRILLION by 2027, the damage could spread to banks and other lenders as well.
This is no longer just about whether AI companies are overvalued.
The bigger risk is that trillions of dollars are being invested in infrastructure that may never generate enough profit to justify its cost.
And if the AI spending boom suddenly reverses, the damage could spread far beyond technology stocks.
A $20 trillion market crash is a scenario, not a certainty, but the amount of money at risk is becoming impossible to ignore.
Another type of compute glut
๐ฅ ์๋น๋์ RTX ๊ทธ๋ํฝ์นด๋ ์ฐ์๋ ๋ชจ๋ ๋ถ๋ค ๊ผญ ๋ณด์ธ์!!!!! ๐ฅ
ํด์ธ์์๋ ์ง์ง ๋๋ฆฌ์ธ๋ฐ... ๊ตญ๋ด์์๋ ์์ง ์ ์ํผ์ง ๊ฒ ๊ฐ์ ๊ณต์ ๋๋ฆฝ๋๋ค!!!
--> ๋ฉฐ์น ์ .. ์๋น๋์๊ฐ RTX์ ๊ฑธ์ด๋ "AI ์ฐ์ฐ ์ ํ"์... ์ต๊ทผ์ ๊ณต๊ฐ๋ ์คํ์์ค๊ฐ ๊ทธ๋ฅ ํ์ด๋ฒ๋ ธ์ต๋๋ค.
์ด๋ฆ GPU-Unlock์ธ๋ฐ... ์ ๊ธ์นด ์ ์ฌ๊ณ , ์ค๋ฒํด๋ญ๋ ์ ํ๊ณ , ์ ํ๋ง ํ์๋๋.. ์๋์ ๊ฐ์ด ์ฑ๋ฅ ํฅ์์ด ๋์์ต๋๋ค.
RTX 3060 --> +78~99%
RTX 3070 --> +72~81%
RTX 3080 --> +68~73%
RTX 3090 Ti --> BF16 +80%
RTX 4070 Ti --> +83~84%
RTX 4090 --> ํน์ Tensor ๊ฑฐ์ 2๋ฐฐ
RTX 2080 Ti๋ --> +36~64%
--> RTX 3000๋๋ง์ ์ด์ผ๊ธฐ๊ฐ ์๋๋๋ค. 20 / 30 / 40 ์๋ฆฌ์ฆ๊น์ง, ๋ฐ์คํฌํ์ด๋ ๋
ธํธ๋ถ ์ชฝ ์ค์ธก๋ ์ง๊ธ๊น์ง ๊ณ์ ์ค์๊ฐ์ผ๋ก ์์ด๊ณ ์์ต๋๋ค.
โญ๏ธ AI ์ด๋ฏธ์ง ์์ฑ์ด๋ ๋ก์ปฌ LLM ๋๋ฆฌ๋ ๋ถ๋ค์ ํนํ ์ฒด๊ฐ๋ ์ ์์ ๊ฒ๋๋ค!! โญ๏ธ
์ง์ง ์ ์ด๊ฒ ๋ฏธ์น๋ฏ์ด ๋๋ฆฌ๋๋ฉด...
๋ด ์ง์ ์๋ RTX ๊ธ์นด ์์ "์ธ ์ ์๋๋ฐ ์ ๊ฒจ ์๋" AI ์ฑ๋ฅ์ด ์์๊ธฐ ๋๋ฌธ์
๋๋ค.
์ ์๋น๋์๊ฐ ์ด๋ ๊ฒ ํ๋๊ณ ์ง๊ธ ์์ฌ์ด ๊ฐ์ฅ ๋ง์ด ๋๊ณ ์๋ ์ชฝ์..
--> ์งํฌ์ค๋ ๋น์ผ ์ ๋ฌธ๊ฐ์ฉ GPU๋ฅผ ๋ฑ๊ธ์ผ๋ก ๋๋๋ ค๊ณ FP16/BF16 ์ชฝ์ ์ผ๋ถ๋ฌ ๊น์๋ ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๋ ์ชฝ์
๋๋ค.
(์์ง ์๋น๋์๊ฐ ๊ณต์์ ์ผ๋ก ์ธ์ ํ ๊ฑด ์๋)
์ด๋ฏธ ์ฐ ์๋ RTX ๊ธ์นด์ ์ด๋งํผ ์ฑ๋ฅ์ ์๋น๋์๊ฐ ๋ง์๋๊ณ ์์๋ค๋ ์ฌ์ค ์์ฒด๊ฐ ๋๋ฌด๋๋ฌด ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ์
๋๋ค...
์คํ์์ค ๊นํ๋ธ:
github.com/Zagitta/gpu-unlocโฆ
40 ์๋ฆฌ์ฆ ํ์ฅ ๊นํ๋ธ:
github.com/JustAResearcher/gโฆ
DeepSeek is making AI inference ridiculously cheap.
Lower inference costs leads to less compute required per task which means fewer GPUs needed to serve the same demand.
If AI demand doesnโt grow fast enough to offset these efficiency gains it will lead to compute glut.
For options traders this means sticking to options that are at least 90 days out.
FORTRESS: The Pentagon is preparing every major U.S. military base to survive 90 days without outside support โ no civilian power grid, no global supply chains, no outside fuel or water.
The initiative, revealed in documents reviewed by Fox News Digital, envisions portable nuclear reactors, massive battery storage, and microgrids that can disconnect installations from civilian electricity entirely. Strategic reserves of munitions, fuel, critical minerals, and medical supplies would be stockpiled based on wartime consumption rates. Civilian factories are being pre-identified to shift to defense production during a crisis.
Pentagon chief spokesperson Sean Parnell put it bluntly: "Power is combat now. Without electricity, you lose communications, water, logistics, assembly lines and just basic military command structures."
Full story here foxnews.com/politics/inside-โฆ
If you're wondering if I'm still bullish on $IREN: Iโm holding my core position, but Iโm definitely less bullish.
I haven't been buying dips on leaps recently because debt CDS and falling token prices have made me really cautious. If Warsh sticks to his hawkish stance, I will very likely sell out of my $IREN positions entirely.
Compared to a previous long-term hold like $ROKU, which was unique, massive user base, low capex, and +FCF, you can understand my hesitation on $IREN. It comes down to risk management: without a clear path forward, Iโd rather not hold it.
๐๐
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesnโt have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but weโre investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
On the bright side, without a free fall in token prices and a compute glut, the next generation of AI companies couldn't exist. It was only after the collapse of the Web 1.0 infrastructure layer that Web 2.0 and tech giants, like Netflix, Amazon Prime, smartphones, and Google Map could rise and benefit the masses.
DYOptions retweeted
WTF, $3000 Samsung TV has an always-on mic, automatic content recognition, geo tracking, network mapping, and ships your data to Samsung + 400 partners.
Bro Rooted a brand-new 2025 Samsung TV after noticing absurdly targeted ads.
Firmware was locked down, so zero-days it was.
Got a root shell.
then found: always-on voice service, ACR, geo, full telemetry pipeline, and four separate DRM systems.
This isnโt a bug, Itโs the product bro.




















