Options trader. My tweets are not investment advice.

Joined October 2010
Hello everyone, welcome to my Patreon page with Discord support. In DYOptions Trading Discord, you will see my daily trades with prices &options strategies used. Please show your support for sharing my trading activities. Join my Discord at patreon.com/DYOptions. Love you all๐Ÿ™
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$SPCX 328 million new shares will also unlock on Oct. 24
$SPCX - Two full trading days after the company reports its third-quarter earnings, 1.3 billion new shares will become eligible for sale (which is tomorrow) - 328 million new shares will also unlock on Oct. 24 -Yahoo Finance
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Thatโ€™s a stark warning. Hyperscalers need to reign in CapEx, especially with cash flows turning negative. The fact of the matter is, they havenโ€™t indicated whether they expect stronger revenue growth ahead or if there's another driver or reason. All eyes are on CapEx and top line guidance this week. Meta raising CapEx guidance without providing clear revenue visibility was a massive warning signal for the market already.
๐Ÿšจ TWO MAJOR RESEARCH FIRMS ARE WARNING ABOUT A POTENTIAL MULTI TRILLION DOLLAR AI DISASTER. TS Lombard and Gartner have released some shocking estimates about what could happen if the AI spending boom collapses. According to TS Lombard's Dario Perkins, a sharp collapse in AI spending could trigger: โ€ข S&P 500 crashing 30%. โ€ข Tech stocks plunging 40%. โ€ข $125โ€“190 BILLION in credit losses. โ€ข Around 800,000 jobs lost. โ€ข More than $20 TRILLION in stock market value wiped out. And now Gartner has issued an even more disturbing warning about the money being poured into AI infrastructure. According to Gartner: โ€ข AI companies are expected to spend nearly $1 TRILLION on infrastructure in 2026 alone. โ€ข Another $6 TRILLION could be spent between 2027 and 2030. โ€ข AI data center owners would need to generate $8.5 TRILLION in revenue through 2030 to cover spending, financing costs and earn a 12% return. โ€ข But Gartner expects no more than $3.6 TRILLION in AI revenue attributable to data centers during that period. That's a nearly $5 TRILLION gap between the revenue needed to justify the investments and the revenue Gartner expects. And the situation gets even worse. Gartner warns that more than $3.5 TRILLION in AI infrastructure spending could be exposed to impairment by 2030. By 2032, more than $4 TRILLION in asset value could be at risk of write-downs. It also predicts that over 80% of neocloud providers could cease operating independently by 2030. The biggest problem is that these companies are spending enormous amounts of money on GPUs and data centers that could become outdated before they generate enough revenue to recover their costs. And the stock market is heavily exposed. The Magnificent 7 alone account for roughly 35% of the S&P 500's market value. All seven have significant exposure to AI through their businesses, investments or infrastructure spending. If AI companies start cutting spending, chipmakers, cloud providers and data center operators could all take a massive hit. With AI-related debt potentially reaching $2.9 TRILLION by 2027, the damage could spread to banks and other lenders as well. This is no longer just about whether AI companies are overvalued. The bigger risk is that trillions of dollars are being invested in infrastructure that may never generate enough profit to justify its cost. And if the AI spending boom suddenly reverses, the damage could spread far beyond technology stocks. A $20 trillion market crash is a scenario, not a certainty, but the amount of money at risk is becoming impossible to ignore.
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Another type of compute glut
๐Ÿ”ฅ ์—”๋น„๋””์•„ RTX ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”ฝ์นด๋“œ ์“ฐ์‹œ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ถ„๋“ค ๊ผญ ๋ณด์„ธ์š”!!!!! ๐Ÿ”ฅ ํ•ด์™ธ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ง„์งœ ๋‚œ๋ฆฌ์ธ๋ฐ... ๊ตญ๋‚ด์—์„œ๋Š” ์•„์ง ์ž˜ ์•ˆํผ์ง„ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์•„ ๊ณต์œ ๋“œ๋ฆฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค!!! --> ๋ฉฐ์น ์ „.. ์—”๋น„๋””์•„๊ฐ€ RTX์— ๊ฑธ์–ด๋‘” "AI ์—ฐ์‚ฐ ์ œํ•œ"์„... ์ตœ๊ทผ์— ๊ณต๊ฐœ๋œ ์˜คํ”ˆ์†Œ์Šค๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ํ’€์–ด๋ฒ„๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฆ„ GPU-Unlock์ธ๋ฐ... ์ƒˆ ๊ธ€์นด ์•ˆ ์‚ฌ๊ณ , ์˜ค๋ฒ„ํด๋Ÿญ๋„ ์•ˆ ํ•˜๊ณ , ์ œํ•œ๋งŒ ํ’€์—ˆ๋”๋‹ˆ.. ์•„๋ž˜์™€ ๊ฐ™์ด ์„ฑ๋Šฅ ํ–ฅ์ƒ์ด ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. RTX 3060 --> +78~99% RTX 3070 --> +72~81% RTX 3080 --> +68~73% RTX 3090 Ti --> BF16 +80% RTX 4070 Ti --> +83~84% RTX 4090 --> ํŠน์ • Tensor ๊ฑฐ์˜ 2๋ฐฐ RTX 2080 Ti๋„ --> +36~64% --> RTX 3000๋Œ€๋งŒ์˜ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 20 / 30 / 40 ์‹œ๋ฆฌ์ฆˆ๊นŒ์ง€, ๋ฐ์Šคํฌํƒ‘์ด๋ž‘ ๋…ธํŠธ๋ถ ์ชฝ ์‹ค์ธก๋„ ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ณ„์† ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„์œผ๋กœ ์Œ“์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. โญ๏ธ AI ์ด๋ฏธ์ง€ ์ƒ์„ฑ์ด๋‚˜ ๋กœ์ปฌ LLM ๋Œ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ถ„๋“ค์€ ํŠนํžˆ ์ฒด๊ฐ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค!! โญ๏ธ ์ง„์งœ ์™œ ์ด๊ฒŒ ๋ฏธ์นœ๋“ฏ์ด ๋‚œ๋ฆฌ๋ƒ๋ฉด... ๋‚ด ์ง‘์— ์žˆ๋Š” RTX ๊ธ€์นด ์•ˆ์— "์“ธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ ์ž ๊ฒจ ์žˆ๋˜" AI ์„ฑ๋Šฅ์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์™œ ์—”๋น„๋””์•„๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ–ˆ๋ƒ๊ณ  ์ง€๊ธˆ ์˜์‹ฌ์ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋งŽ์ด ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ชฝ์€.. --> ์ง€ํฌ์Šค๋ž‘ ๋น„์‹ผ ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€์šฉ GPU๋ฅผ ๋“ฑ๊ธ‰์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„๋ ค๊ณ  FP16/BF16 ์ชฝ์„ ์ผ๋ถ€๋Ÿฌ ๊นŽ์•„๋‘” ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๋Š” ์ชฝ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. (์•„์ง ์—”๋น„๋””์•„๊ฐ€ ๊ณต์‹์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ธ์ •ํ•œ ๊ฑด ์•„๋‹˜) ์ด๋ฏธ ์‚ฐ ์˜›๋‚  RTX ๊ธ€์นด์— ์ด๋งŒํผ ์„ฑ๋Šฅ์„ ์—”๋น„๋””์•„๊ฐ€ ๋ง‰์•„๋‘๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค ์ž์ฒด๊ฐ€ ๋„ˆ๋ฌด๋„ˆ๋ฌด ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค... ์˜คํ”ˆ์†Œ์Šค ๊นƒํ—ˆ๋ธŒ: github.com/Zagitta/gpu-unlocโ€ฆ 40 ์‹œ๋ฆฌ์ฆˆ ํ™•์žฅ ๊นƒํ—ˆ๋ธŒ: github.com/JustAResearcher/gโ€ฆ
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Nice recap ๐Ÿ˜‚
Very weird Sunday US pentagon 90 day resource stockpile, Brazil stolen election, UK power grid down, king tides in FL, full moon, Netanyahu tweeting out a nuclear bomb picture and Elon saying neoclouds to zero
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Is this normal
๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง BREAKING: Over 271,000 homes in the United Kingdom are out of power right now What is causing these massive blackouts?
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Most investors haven't yet realized that cheap money is gone and that doesn't bode well for capital intensive stocks
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Dug out my Walkman for my 90 day prep list. Didnโ€™t realize this thing was worth $100. Holy
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DeepSeek is making AI inference ridiculously cheap. Lower inference costs leads to less compute required per task which means fewer GPUs needed to serve the same demand. If AI demand doesnโ€™t grow fast enough to offset these efficiency gains it will lead to compute glut.
Replying to @data168
what are you implying? ๐Ÿง
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For options traders this means sticking to options that are at least 90 days out.
FORTRESS: The Pentagon is preparing every major U.S. military base to survive 90 days without outside support โ€” no civilian power grid, no global supply chains, no outside fuel or water. The initiative, revealed in documents reviewed by Fox News Digital, envisions portable nuclear reactors, massive battery storage, and microgrids that can disconnect installations from civilian electricity entirely. Strategic reserves of munitions, fuel, critical minerals, and medical supplies would be stockpiled based on wartime consumption rates. Civilian factories are being pre-identified to shift to defense production during a crisis. Pentagon chief spokesperson Sean Parnell put it bluntly: "Power is combat now. Without electricity, you lose communications, water, logistics, assembly lines and just basic military command structures." Full story here foxnews.com/politics/inside-โ€ฆ
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Replying to @PaulSaunde82517
๐Ÿค
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Nice recap ๐Ÿ˜‚
Very weird Sunday US pentagon 90 day resource stockpile, Brazil stolen election, UK power grid down, king tides in FL, full moon, Netanyahu tweeting out a nuclear bomb picture and Elon saying neoclouds to zero
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Replying to @woofystocks
Very likely
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Replying to @PaulSaunde82517
๐Ÿ˜…
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Replying to @Rammvier14
History rhythms, unfortunately
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Replying to @PoppaBigman
Correct, expect 1) Real rates are positive. Warsh needs to lower it 2) Nominal terms matter to any budget which needs to be balanced, doesn't work on govenment levels which needs to service trillion of debt.
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Replying to @Mangosean
Stock price has reflected it.
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Replying to @itsfuckingbroke
Feels like 2018 property market
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Most investors haven't yet realized that cheap money is gone and that doesn't bode well for capital intensive stocks
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Replying to @chrishacken
Not looking good with compute glut plus hawkish Fed. Warsh needs to pivot.
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