University of Illinois research lab where stats meet baseball history. Creators of peer-reviewed era-adjusted WAR. Featured in NYT. Babe Ruth is not the GOAT.
Joined May 2025
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The stats you use to compare baseball players across eras are not era-adjusted, even if they say they are.
WAR, OPS+, ERA+, etc do not account for changes to the talent pool and competition.
A 10-WAR season in 1925 is treated as identical to a 10-WAR season in 2025. It is not.
Ty Cobb remains elite after adjusting for talent pool size!
Our method cuts about 35 WAR off his total due to Cobb competing during a much smaller talent pool.
But Cobb earned about 150 WAR. Cutting 35 off that total still lands top 10 all-time. His batting average also remains firmly within the top 10 among players with 8000 PAs.
That said, his JAWS sits at 10th among position players. And its likely that he gets passed by Trout.
Cobb is still close to inner circle!
eckeraadjustment.web.illinoi…
Great inclusion of Josh Gibson!
We have preliminary era-adjusted stats for Gibson, and they support this inclusion. He's the best catcher all-time, and his rate stats rival Babe Ruth!
Midterm results are coming in and boy do a lot of people have a lot to say about it.
Do you know what people aren't talking about?...
Charlie Keller and how underrated he is!
Keller played from 1939-1952. That was a long time ago. But he did very well vs his peers, and his era-adjusted stats hold up!
- 29th all-time in era-adjusted OBP (ahead of Manny Ramirez and Jeff Bagwell)
- 24th all-time in era-adjusted WAR rate (ahead of Stan Musial and Mel Ott)
He was pretty good!
See era-adjusted stats here: eckeraadjustment.web.illinoi…
This is one of the best selections of the entire project, and that's saying something!
When you adjust for eras Pujols ranks 9th all-time in WAR. He's 7th all-time among position players in JAWS.
See these rankings here: eckeraadjustment.web.illinoi…
ESPN's 100 Greatest, Posnanski, and many others have consistently dropped the ball on Pujols.
Kudos to the Sporting News for correcting past errors and advancing discussions of greatness in baseball!
The hallmark of consistency.
There may have been better peak seasons. But no one had a better 15th best season!
m.youtube.com/watch?v=k_3aAw…
We tend to think the lore comes first and the stats follow. But the stats can change whose stories get told, whose greatness gets recognized, and who becomes a legend.
We don't have to wait 20 years to appreciate present greatness. Here's the first case study using our updated 2026 era-adjusted stats. I encourage others to find and tell these stories too!
Be Nostalgic About Now: The Hall of Fame Case for...
eracurveball.substack.com/p/…
Version 3.2 of our Era-Adjusted Baseball Stats is now live!
eckeraadjustment.web.illinoi…
Some of the best baseball in history is being played right now. Take a look!
Version notes:
- Stats are now up-to-date through 2026.
- Talent pool version 3.0 remains the latest version.
- The fullhouse R package will be updated to include the new stats.
- Digressions document version 3.1 is still the latest, but its stats are outdated. I may update it eventually, but don't hold your breath.
@PaulHembo @BaseballWRLD_ @JessicaDBrand @AlexDevMLB @GoBirdinals
Version 3.2 of our Era-Adjusted Baseball Stats is now live!
eckeraadjustment.web.illinoi…
Some of the best baseball in history is being played right now. Take a look!
Version notes:
- Stats are now up-to-date through 2026.
- Talent pool version 3.0 remains the latest version.
- The fullhouse R package will be updated to include the new stats.
- Digressions document version 3.1 is still the latest, but its stats are outdated. I may update it eventually, but don't hold your breath.
@PaulHembo @BaseballWRLD_ @JessicaDBrand @AlexDevMLB @GoBirdinals
Willie Mays is the defining player of the inner circle.
He’s a great way to lead the room, but he should be closing it out!
teapaw.org/deck1388/status/206791…
How good was Yordan Alvarez's bat in 2026?
Babe Ruth put up 255 OPS+ in 1920. That's his best season and it is well ahead of Alvarez's 190.
Now look at the leaderboards:
-Alvarez led 2nd place by 34 OPS+
-Ruth led 2nd place in the NL/AL* by 70 OPS+
Ruth's advantage was nearly double.
But look closer:
The OPS+ gap between 2nd and 10th was a paltry 13 points in 2026. It was greater than double that in 1920!
That is important. It means that the distribution of achievement was heavier tailed in 1920. Thus, large outliers were more common then.
All this is before you consider that the talent pool was much smaller in 1921.
So how good was Alvarez's bat in 2026?
@yordanknowball @mlb_agent @EvolvSportsMgmt
Major Update:
Era-adjusted baseball stats have been compiled for the 2026 season.
There are going to be some major results!
Hint: how good do you think PCA and Yordan Alvarez's seasons will rank?
Keep in mind that the distance from 2nd place has an effect on how our stats are calculated (see attached screenshots).
Stay tuned for our release after the World Series.
Current stats here: eckeraadjustment.web.illinoi…
How good was PCA in 2026?
Babe Ruth put up 14.1 WAR in 1923. That's his best season and it is well ahead of PCA's 9.8.
Now look at the leaderboards:
PCA leads 2nd place by 2.5 WAR
Ruth leads 2nd place by 4.8 WAR
That is still an advantage for Ruth.
But look closer:
The WAR gap between 2nd and 10th was 1.5 in 2026. It was 3.7 in 1923! That is important. It means that the distribution of achievement is heavy tailed, supporting the idea that outlying performance was systematically more likely in 1923.
Tail behavior at the extreme end of performance influences how our stats are computed for each season's stat leaders.
All this is before you consider that the talent pool was much smaller in 1923.
So how good was PCA in 2026?
Major Update:
Era-adjusted baseball stats have been compiled for the 2026 season.
There are going to be some major results!
Hint: how good do you think PCA and Yordan Alvarez's seasons will rank?
Keep in mind that the distance from 2nd place has an effect on how our stats are calculated (see attached screenshots).
Stay tuned for our release after the World Series.
Current stats here: eckeraadjustment.web.illinoi…
Major Update:
Era-adjusted baseball stats have been compiled for the 2026 season.
There are going to be some major results!
Hint: how good do you think PCA and Yordan Alvarez's seasons will rank?
Keep in mind that the distance from 2nd place has an effect on how our stats are calculated (see attached screenshots).
Stay tuned for our release after the World Series.
Current stats here: eckeraadjustment.web.illinoi…
EckSportsLab retweeted
In case you missed it, @sabr has a call for abstracts out for next year's SABR Analytics Conference!
You can learn more here: sabr.org/latest/submit-your-…
Agreed!
Also worth noting that Kiner was one of the most prolific home run hitters ever!
He ranks 8th in home run rate (min 5000 PAs) when you adjust for talent pool, competitive environment, and stadium.
He's ahead of Bonds, Schwarber, Killebrew, Foxx, Greenberg, Gehrig and many others!
You can see era-adjusted stats and content here: eckeraadjustment.web.illinoi…
Not enough people talk about Ralph Kiner
• .279/.398/.548 (.946 OPS), 149 OPS+
• 6x AS, 7x NL HR Champ (led MLB 6x)
• Unprecedented 7 straight HR titles
• (Even George Ruth never did that)
• Reached 40 HR 5x & 100 RBI 6x
• But he only played 10 seasons!
• Back injury forced retirement
• Thrice led the league in walks
• Also thrice in SLG, OPS, OPS+
• Scored 100+ runs 6x in 7 years
• 8 walk-off HR, 2 in extra innings
• Career 41 HR & 112 RBI per 162 G
• Most HR ever at Forbes Field (175)
• Appeared on FIFTEEN HOF ballots
• Served as a Navy pilot during WWII
• (Enlisted the day after Pearl Harbor)
• Second cousin twice removed of IKF
• A most beloved figure in Mets history
• Top BR Similarity Score: David Justice
• Mets broadcaster from 1962 thru 2013
• Hosted "Kiner's Korner" postgame show
• A most genuine and charming gentleman
• Was a legend for his on-air malapropisms
• Like Yogi, was extremely fun and quotable
• Most HR through first 8 MLB seasons (329)
• Went on a date with Elizabeth Taylor in 1949
• (Set up by Bing Crosby, then a Pirates owner)
• Ralph Kiner is the only player in MLB history to lead the league in home runs in 7 consecutive seasons, doing so in the first 7 years of his big league career; Babe Ruth’s 12 home run titles are the most ever, but his longest unbroken streak of years leading the league was 6.
