Data-driven election forecasting page created by @AFKGuy002 and @SzczWalker.
Washington, DC
Joined September 2026
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Kathy Castor (D) has won reelection in FL-14, by about six points.
DistrictCast had Castor winning by 5.6 in our final forecast.
FINAL DISTRICTCAST CONGRESSIONAL PROJECTIONS:
Senate: 52 Dem - 48 GOP, 83% chance of Dem control
House: 238 Dem - 197 GOP, 96% chance of Dem control
DistrictCast retweeted
Some further information: Unlike the federal House and Senate forecasts, the state forecasts will not be updated daily. We’ll be doing one more update on Monday.
With that update, we’ll also be releasing our gubernatorial forecasts for every other state up this year.
NEW on DistrictCast:
Now launching a major update with EIGHT State Government forecasts, including detailed pages for each legislative chamber! Explore Governor and Trifecta forecasts across the country, live right now!
DistrictCast retweeted
State forecasts are now live for eight states (AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, TX, WI) on DistrictCast!
Here's a thread of overviews for each state:
DistrictCast retweeted
A preview of one state's odds: Wisconsin. It's the only state where both parties have a >2% chance at a trifecta.
Dem Trifecta: 65% chance
Divided Government: 28% chance
GOP Trifecta: 7% chance
Coming tomorrow AM to @DistrictCastUS: State government forecasts, including gubernatorial and state legislative elections, and overall government control! We'll be tracking these states:
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Nevada
- North Carolina
- Pennsylvania
- Texas
- Wisconsin
DistrictCast retweeted
Coming tomorrow AM to @DistrictCastUS: State government forecasts, including gubernatorial and state legislative elections, and overall government control! We'll be tracking these states:
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Nevada
- North Carolina
- Pennsylvania
- Texas
- Wisconsin
DistrictCast's Senate forecast is now updated for Q3 fundraising reports.
Democratic odds to flip the chamber jumped five points, from 73 percent to 78 percent.
DistrictCast retweeted
Well, this is a first: In today’s DistrictCast run, out of 10,000 simulations, Ager (D) and Balkcom (R) each won NC-11 exactly 5,000 times. Yes, an exact tie in terms of modeled win probability.
The website doesn’t really know how to display it (we’re working on a fix for that).
DistrictCast retweeted
This seat started almost off the board for us as a guaranteed "flip" (TX-32 was redrawn from a solid blue district to be a guaranteed R pickup), but Barrios has clawed it back from Safe (>95% chance) GOP to Likely (80-95% chance) GOP.
A Club for Growth affiliate group is going full negative against the Democratic nominee in #TX32, which was redrawn last year to be Trump +18: youtube.com/watch?v=xDH5wO_e…
Modeled results in each of these districts:
KS-02: R +10.5, 5.3% chance of Dem victory
MI-01: R +12.6, 2.5% chance
NC-13: R +8.3, 10.4% chance
NJ-02: R +7.8, 11.8% chance
OK-05: R +10.2, 6.0% chance
TX-09: R +8.7, 9.9% chance
VA-06: R +17.4, 0.4% chance
WA-05: R +8.8, 9.2% chance
