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Charlie002

@AFKGuy002

Politics and GIS nerd. Democrat. GWU '27. I make maps. Co-creator of @DistrictCastUS. He/Him. Open for GIS/Data Science work!

 Massachusetts/DC
DistrictCast.us
Joined March 2020
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Replying to @SzczWalker
@SzczWalker and I are proud to announce the official release of our 2026 midterm model: DistrictCast (@districtcastus)! A link, along with our predictions for the House and Senate and some information about our methodology, can be found below.
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Charlie002@AFKGuy002Nov 9
Last Tuesday, incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Market and incumbent Democratic Governor Maura Healey both easily won reelection, with Markey outrunning Healey by about four points. Here's how their performances differed by town.
Image from Charlie002 (@AFKGuy002)
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Last Tuesday, incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Market and incumbent Democratic Governor Maura Healey both easily won reelection, with Markey outrunning Healey by about four points. Here's how their performances differed by town.
Image from Charlie002 (@AFKGuy002)
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While Markey performed generally better across the state, he did especially well relative to Healey in more working class areas, like Fall River/New Bedford and most of rural Central and Western Mass. Healey held up best in affluent areas, especially suburbs northwest of Boston.
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@DrewSav @JMilesColeman @LIEngProf @TheAleksee @BeshearStan
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Kathy Castor (D) has won reelection in FL-14, by about six points. DistrictCast had Castor winning by 5.6 in our final forecast.
Image from DistrictCast (@districtcastus)
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For those monitoring IN-05: Here’s the Democratic primary, in which JD Ford prevailed.
Charlie002 (@AFKGuy002) profile pictureCharlie002@AFKGuy002May 21
In the concurrent Democratic primary, State Senator J.D. Ford prevailed over a crowded field, with Indiana National Guard combat medic Jackson Franklin finishing second and 2024 nominee for the district Deborah Pickett finishing third. (1/4)
A precinct map of the 2026 IN-05 Democratic primary.

ALT A precinct map of the 2026 IN-05 Democratic primary.

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Our final projections at DistrictCast show a blue wave:
DistrictCast (@districtcastus) profile pictureDistrictCast@districtcastusNov 3
FINAL DISTRICTCAST CONGRESSIONAL PROJECTIONS: Senate: 52 Dem - 48 GOP, 83% chance of Dem control House: 238 Dem - 197 GOP, 96% chance of Dem control
Image from DistrictCast (@districtcastus)
Image from DistrictCast (@districtcastus)
Image from DistrictCast (@districtcastus)
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Some further information: Unlike the federal House and Senate forecasts, the state forecasts will not be updated daily. We’ll be doing one more update on Monday. With that update, we’ll also be releasing our gubernatorial forecasts for every other state up this year.
Charlie002 (@AFKGuy002) profile pictureCharlie002@AFKGuy002Oct 29
State forecasts are now live for eight states (AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, TX, WI) on DistrictCast! Here's a thread of overviews for each state:
Image from Charlie002 (@AFKGuy002)
Image from Charlie002 (@AFKGuy002)
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State forecasts are now live for eight states (AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, TX, WI) on DistrictCast! Here's a thread of overviews for each state:
Image from Charlie002 (@AFKGuy002)
Image from Charlie002 (@AFKGuy002)
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WISCONSIN Governor: 78% chance of Crowley (D) victory, D +4.3 projected margin S. Senate: 85% chance of D majority, 18 D - 15 R projected breakdown S. Assembly: 76% chance of D majority, 52 D - 47 R projected breakdown Overall odds: D Trifecta: 65% Divided: 28% R Trifecta: 7%
Image from Charlie002 (@AFKGuy002)
Image from Charlie002 (@AFKGuy002)
Image from Charlie002 (@AFKGuy002)
Image from Charlie002 (@AFKGuy002)
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See these forecasts for yourself at districtcast.us/states/!

DistrictCast — 2026 U.S. Election Forecast

Explore the latest DistrictCast forecast for the 2026 U.S. Senate and House elections.

districtcast.us
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A preview of one state's odds: Wisconsin. It's the only state where both parties have a >2% chance at a trifecta. Dem Trifecta: 65% chance Divided Government: 28% chance GOP Trifecta: 7% chance
Image from Charlie002 (@AFKGuy002)
Image from Charlie002 (@AFKGuy002)
Image from Charlie002 (@AFKGuy002)
Image from Charlie002 (@AFKGuy002)
Charlie002 (@AFKGuy002) profile pictureCharlie002@AFKGuy002Oct 28
Coming tomorrow AM to @DistrictCastUS: State government forecasts, including gubernatorial and state legislative elections, and overall government control! We'll be tracking these states: - Arizona - Georgia - Michigan - Nevada - North Carolina - Pennsylvania - Texas - Wisconsin
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Coming tomorrow AM to @DistrictCastUS: State government forecasts, including gubernatorial and state legislative elections, and overall government control! We'll be tracking these states: - Arizona - Georgia - Michigan - Nevada - North Carolina - Pennsylvania - Texas - Wisconsin
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