America at 250, Part V - July ‘26 House Predictions These are NOT safe/likely/lean/tilt ratings. They’re based on the predicted vote shares the winning party will receive. Based on a GCB of Dem +5.5, Dems are set to gain only modestly in a sort of “reverse” ‘22 scenario. This is largely due to GOP gains from mid-decade redistricting. BUT, remember that many seats don’t become truly competitive until closer to Election Day, so definitely keep an eye on those light pink/blue seats, or even the slightly darker ones, which could easily turn into sleepers. As usual, a like, repost and/or follow is always appreciated! 🥹 Happy 4th everyone and a Happy 250th Birthday to the USA!! 🇺🇸 🎆💙🎉 Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @Leonz0_o @ModRightMaps

While it’s not impossible, I’d be hard pressed to believe AES will lose in this environment, in spite of his flaws. That said, his MOV has the potential for wide variation - from Stabenow’s semi-decisive ‘18 win, to Peters’s ‘20 squeaker (both against this year’s Gov nominee).

If Tom Periello is able to pull off the upset (McGuire still favored), it would be his second time ousting a GOP incumbent in VA-05. The other time came in 2008 when he defeated Dem-turned Indie-turned R Virgil Goode.

This, btw, was the Dem primary map for the 2018 NY AG election. James won entirely due to her strength in the NYC metro.

A potentially earth shattering election result could be coming. Trump has only ever worked with Bibi, so his loss very well could dramatically change the course of the Iran War and US-Israeli relation overall. Should be interesting…

Many pundits view Letitia James’s 2022 reelection as underwhelming and expect her to underperform the state’s baseline again this year. However, many seem to forget just how dominating her initial win was - where she even outperformed Andrew Cuomo.

Here’s what the 1912 Presidential election in PA looked like, btw. 😳

🚨12K Followers Appreciation Post!🚨 The 1912 PA US House elections were chaotic. Teddy Roosevelt won the state with only 36%, and it trickled down the ballot. Many candidates were elected with <50% or even <40%. Not to mention the state gained 4 seats but didn’t redistrict! Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @ModRightMaps @LeonY1_2 @DJBranham @PAMapper @NickyScatz

Computers did draw that map. For contrast, here’s a good example of what pre-computer and post-computer maps looked like in TX.

Needless to say that if Brown does pull out a win next month, the map will look just a tad bit different from his first statewide win (aka the battle of the Browns).

Slight amount of ticket splitting going on in those 1994 TX elections…

Keep in mind that when a pundit changes a race to “Likely,” it doesn’t mean the opposing party is headed for a win. It’s about the margin. For example, no believed Dems would win the ‘18 OK Gov race, but it’s a classic case of a “Likely” margin win (mid 50s for the winner).

1994: The last year TX Dems won a statewide race. The biggest profile one? AG, where you wouldn’t think the Dem incumbent only got 53%…

It’s hard to say if Rs betting on holding the House (unlikely) and Senate (obviously doable) are doing so out of pure partisanship/loyalty or because they know Rs are doomed and are hoping to cash in if we get a surprise. Obviously they ended up being right in ‘24…

While former Sen Doug Jones is likely the strongest candidate Dems could’ve put forth, the party simply hasn’t had luck with the office this century. Don Siegelman’s ‘98 win was the last time Dems held the Gov’s office in AL, and he narrowly lost reelection in ‘02.

The “subway” in this case being the Long Island Railroad. 🤦🏻‍♂️ I’ve said many times that if Rs couldn’t beat Hochul in ‘22, it’s not happening this year - even if she’s a crappy Governor. The Cuomo scandal has faded, the crime message isn’t as powerful and the year is bluer.

I still say Susan Collins will lose by a not-insignificant margin (though not a blowout). She went from massive blowouts in ‘08/‘14 to getting 51% in ‘20 (yes, I know her MOV was “9%,” but consider 3rd parties). Her crossover appeal has likely sunk further since then.

How to Throw Away a Winnable Race 101: A Class No One Wants Credit For

Okay, QGIS behaved itself and I was able to pump out the 1990 US House map for the Midwest. In a generally strong year for the party, Dems maintained a 63-40 advantage in the region, netting 3 seats. In case you’re wondering, no, that’s not a misclick on the Madison, WI CD. 😳