This account is no longer active - Contributing editor at @downballotnews and co-host of The Downballot postcast
Washington DC
Joined August 2008
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I don’t post very often but for the record any future posting will happen on Bluesky (same handle). I’m not planning to post here going forward and will be cutting down my lists/follows to just folks who haven’t moved over yet
David Beard retweeted
On Tuesday, Mike Johnson begged Trump to stop raiding the House for more cabinet picks. On Wednesday, Trump raided the House for more cabinet picks. This week on our podcast, @DavidNir & @dwbeard explain how Trump is making the House even less governable the-downballot.com/p/trump-m…
I fully support this idea, and any other GOP house member who wants an administration role should get one
Five sources confirm to @RobbieGramer @NickReisman & @meridithmcgraw that @EliseStefanik is being eyed for role as Trump's UN ambassador:
politico.com/live-updates/20…
I think there's a pretty straightforward path to 216 seats for Democrats based on CA's late mail (Specifically flipping 13, 27, 45, and 47 from current R leads). Getting to 218 is tough and would need to include two of AK-AL, CA-22, CA-41, AZ-1, AZ-6
With the exception of PA (lost Sen and 2 Congressional seats), Democrats are generally doing the same or better in Congressional races compared to 2022. What that means I don't know but the red shift is much more a presidential result, not universal
Best guess on the House I've got 214R-213D (assuming a number of leads hold) with unknown results in 8 races, all in AK/AZ/CA
David Beard retweeted
Our live election night coverage—focused, of course, on the downballot races—will start at 6 PM ET! But first, a thread with some resources that will help you avoid getting drenched by the inevitable firehose.
The number one piece of advice I can give for tonight is to wait for completed counties/towns/precincts for comparative purposes - it's almost impossible to compare mail/early/E-Day portions to any other election
David Beard retweeted
The natural habitat of the U.S. Senate candidate is normally confined to a narrow geographic region, but environmental changes have led to the emergence of a new migratory species, H. senatus republicanis—an opportunistic breed that will abandon its home when a better one presents itself.
Below, @donnermaps has carefully tracked these new migration routes, some of which stretch thousands of miles!
David Beard retweeted
During the Renaissance, people in Venice would vote by dropping little balls into an urn.
The Italian word for “little ball” is ‘ballotta.’
Now any kind of secret voting, by ball, piece of paper, or voting machine, is called a ‘ballot.’
David Beard retweeted
We had to *re-record* this week's entire podcast due to a technical issue, but there's no way we were letting the final week before the election pass without a new episode! Jeff Singer joins us for an hour-by-hour guide to Tuesday's top races to watch the-downballot.com/p/our-hou…
David Beard retweeted
It's here! The Downballot's famous poll closing times map is back, sponsored by @314action!
In the map below, all times are Eastern, but we have versions for every U.S. time zone (including territories!), plus one for color-blind folks. Find them here: the-downballot.com/p/the-dow…
David Beard retweeted
What an awesome episode on this week's podcast! The legendary Josh Marshall (@joshtpm), founder of @TPM, joined us to unravel the conflicting evidence before us: Is the election a tossup, or do Dems have the wind at their backs? Listen here! the-downballot.com/p/tpms-jo…
David Beard retweeted
Special elections point to a strong year for House Democrats, but generic ballot polling shows a tossup. So which predictive tool should you rely on? The answer may be "both"
NEW, from The Downballot --> the-downballot.com/p/special…
David Beard retweeted
Ooohhhhh my god did you get background quotes from jittery Democratic strategists close to the campaign's thinking? Should we tell everyone? Should we throw a party? Should we invite David Axelrod?
David Beard retweeted
Great episode of the Downballot from a couple weeks ago where they interviewed Shekar Narasimhan, founder of the AAPI Victory Fund, about AAPI voters, issues, candidates, geography, etc.
Really fascinating conversation (starts 23:00)
@DavidNir @dwbeard
open.spotify.com/episode/4sN…
David Beard retweeted
We are *very* close to reaching our next big goal of 1,500 paid subscribers! This morning, we were 22 away. Now we need just 11 more. Click here to support The Downballot at just $60 a year. That comes out to just 25 cents *per newsletter*! the-downballot.com/subscribe