François d'Alançon

Trump does appear to be very angry with Zelensky. The situation is strongly reminiscent of the February 2025 confrontation. But his mood can shift rapidly, as Putin also knows, particularly when it reflects immediate political pressures such as the midterm elections. This may look like Putin’s moment of triumph: he has secured an economic deal, albeit a modest one, before a peace settlement, departing from Washington’s previous position. He is also hearing the message he has wanted to hear for years: Zelensky must go. Yet whatever Moscow hopes or believes, Washington cannot simply remove Zelensky. The central uncertainty is how the current confrontation will affect his domestic standing and, in turn, Kyiv’s position on Russia’s demands. Putin may believe that developments are moving in his favour, but he is unlikely to count on Trump to deliver the outcome he wants. Instead, he will see Trump’s current stance as creating more favourable conditions for intensifying military pressure, aimed primarily at triggering an internal political breakdown in Ukraine rather than achieving a battlefield breakthrough. In his view, this pressure must be accompanied by efforts to cultivate Trump and make limited, tactical accommodations that could yield longer-term benefits.