@finphysnerd

Physics grad, value investing zoomer, reality tv star, pole dancer, 'best hair on fintwit'. 🏳️‍🌈🇦🇺.

 Sydney, New South Wales
valuezoomer.substack.com/
Joined December 2015
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  • Following392
  • Followers7.1K
662Media
New writeup on the other site (link in bio) Focusing on Focus Point $FOCUSP: Malaysia's largest optical retail chain. 20% market share as the lowest cost franchise option amongst a fragmented industry. Consistent low double digits grower at a 9x earnings multiple.
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Question, why does something like this exist?
Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭
@ThierryBorgeatOct 25
This is what he means. We are entering the best 6- to 9-month period of the entire 48-month presidential cycle. Buckle up. Prepare accordingly. See our Technical Weekly at @arvyMacroCycles
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Haven't looked at the stock, but have been using Grab constantly while in Malaysia the last two weeks so need to give it a proper look.
NS Investments@NStepmumOct 23
$Grab Q2 annualized ev ebitda ex financial services is 10.4 (threw it out here cause unprofitable but it is inflecting with loan book growing 100% organically w npl stable. BE of segment expected in H2) CEO bought $30M of stock at current level in september
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A lot of my behaviour is guided by my biases. I'm naturally bearish so I look for reasons to be bullish. I like cheap stocks so I look for reasons to dislike a stock if it's cheap. I want to add when things are going well and cut when things are going badly, which often is the
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Opposite of what I should be doing at those times.
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First pacific $142 being hit by the double whammy of being a mainly Indonesian company listed in Hong Kong. I think I'm ready to go bottom fishing at less than 4x earnings and a 6% dividend yield. Debt is not as bad as it looks as much of it is subsidiary level and on stable
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Businesses like telcos, noodles and roll roads. Still a huge mi goreng water personally.
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Have been thinking and reading over the weekend. I think I'm going to add a fair amount of exposure on Monday to longs and to shorts.
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Remember not to mistake a leverage event for a change of fundamentals. The biggest onslaught I can remember among Macro HFs through my career. This shall (too) pass
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I have a lot of negative beta to SOXX which has worked well the last few weeks. I think I'm going to short some $SOXS to hedge a bit of that out.
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Going long a bit of SoftBank here and shorting more staples and defensives like $BRKB, $WMT, $MO, $CBRL
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JEFFERIES DESK: “.. in the last 10 days, we’ve been net for sale in Tech to the tune of > $1B on 7 of those days. .. And for reference, here’s our net trading flows over a 20D period, one of the more dramatic net selling periods we’ve seen in Tech in recent years.”
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$MRNA down 17% it's a beautiful day🥳
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I've had a large (5% either side) long Prosus short $ECNS position on for a while. I've reduced 1/3rd of the $ECNS hedge here as I start to move a bit long china as a trade.
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Biggest two week net selling ever According to @Goldmansachs PB, global technology stocks saw the largest two-week net selling on record (10+ years) between October 5 and 16, a staggering 3.3 standard deviations below normal. Selling was driven by both long liquidations and fresh shorting.
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It's fascinating to me that the best capital allocators in the world ( $AMZN, $GOOGL, $TCEHY, $MSFT) with clear views of returns and use cases across many industries are saying that AI Capex is their best use of capital, yet everyone is still skeptical.
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I really wanna buy some china😬 Currently I have no direct china exposure in the portfolio.
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This is crazy. Short sales have outpaced long buying by a staggering 5:1 month-to-date, pushing short leverage close to five-year highs. We have 44% of all earnings next week including loads of tech companies. If the Nasdaq can hold the range into earnings and we see some surprises, that's a monster amount of fuel for a squeeze.
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Shorting staples here pretty aggressively, which have gone on a big run. $XLP broadly but $KO and $WMT particularly.
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$NCK.ax missing guidance badly down 15%. The others following it. Potentially going to close out my shorts other than $TPW here.
Myles@finphysnerdAug 19
$TPW.ax down 17%. $HVN.ax and $NCK.ax rolling over. $CBA.ax down 10% in two weeks. I was a bit early but I've been adding aggressively in the last few weeks. The market is finally starting to price in an actual housing slowdown.
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Nasty update from Nick Scali. RBA getting its slowdown in domestic demand. You can thank Albo and Chalmers for that. Consensus was at around $39m for the first half. Guiding down to around $30m. NCK was trading on 16x fwd earnings. Going to be ugly tomorrow.
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