fletchbog retweeted
Worth remembering re the BoE move, that it's mostly about oil/energy costs, and the last two days have seen those change rapidly. Note too though that it highlights UK's ridiculous energy fragility - your mortgage is rising because our MPs refuse to prioritise energy security.
fletchbog retweeted
Labour have pushed small business owners past breaking point.
Countless livelihoods destroyed by tax raids.
And then they tell us we "aren't working people."
The Fabians in government are about to find out that you reap what you sow.
fletchbog retweeted
The Bank of England has raised interest rates to 4%, supposedly to tackle inflation.
There is just one problem with this decision. The Bank knows that much of the inflation we are suffering is being driven by rising oil and energy prices, largely resulting from conflict in the Middle East.
It also knows that raising interest rates cannot reduce those prices.
So why is it doing this?
The answer is that the Bank believes it must suppress demand elsewhere in the economy to compensate for rising energy costs.
In other words, it is deliberately making mortgages more expensive, increasing business borrowing costs, discouraging investment and reducing household spending power.
And all this when people are already struggling with higher energy bills. That is problem number one.
There is, however, another problem. Higher interest rates increase costs for businesses, which can then feed through into higher prices. They can, in that case, add to inflation rather than reduce it.
The Bank is imposing economic pain to address a problem its chosen policy cannot directly solve.
That is not sound economic management. It is the consequence of an economic dogma that refuses to recognise the difference between inflation caused by excessive demand and inflation caused by supply shocks.
When will we learn?
fletchbog retweeted
Norwegian oil and gas is carbon neutral and jasmine scented.
UK government to outlaw new North Sea drilling bbc.in/4iyVSUO
fletchbog retweeted
I find articles like this hilarious. They're written as though there's this thing happening that we can't explain.
Look at the data... quiet quitting is particularly pronounced among Gen Z and younger millennials.
Then look at the backdrop to their careers. These people have watched their futures being spent on bailouts, lockdowns and furlough.
Even if you work extremely hard and earn promotions (which is far from guaranteed), wages in the UK are so crap, and the cost of living so high, that the rewards often amount to very little.
The extra pay can be negligible. The extra effort and responsibility are not.
And if you've worked hard, trained and made your way up the greasy corporate pole, there's a good chance you've watched entry-level wages creep ever closer to yours. You might reasonably be asking yourself why you bothered in the first place.
Since the pandemic began, the National Living Wage has increased by nearly 55%. If you're someone with years of experience, training, progression and hard work under your belt, and your wages haven't kept pace, why wouldn't you question the value of all that effort?
The incentive has been inverted.
This is wage compression, and we're now witnessing the second- and third-order effects governments seem so oblivious to. When the financial reward for taking on more responsibility diminishes, so does the incentive to do it.
And this is what's happening. People are moving the dial they actually have control over… how much they give a shit about their job. And I don't blame them.
I think people are also starting to realise that much of the reward for their hard work is swallowed up by the ever-growing, increasingly wasteful blob that is the British state.
It's like having someone sitting on your shoulders, stealing half your food, getting heavier by the day, and repeatedly slapping you around the face as you try to go about your life.
'Quiet quitting' could be hitting the economy - here's why bbc.in/4ijTORZ
fletchbog retweeted
📣“When even someone as relatively sensible as Reynolds believes that employers are a class that don’t work for a living but somehow live off the backs of ‘working people’ then it shows the scale of Labour’s inability to grasp even the basics of wealth creation and growth – and thus the scale of the problem for our economy.”
@EmmaforWycombe
capx.co/labours-mangled-sixt…
fletchbog retweeted
So the Labour government now intend to punish the self employed to take their tax in advance every month. Yet another hammer blow against the engine room of the economy - the self employed.
Many self employed workers receive delayed payments from clients and customers. This new monthly tax grab will destroy so many businesses.
fletchbog retweeted
JUST IN: 🇵🇱 Statement by the President of the Republic of Poland, Karol Nawrocki following last night's coup attempt by liberal Prime Minister Donald Tusk:
“Last night, the constitutional order of the Republic of Poland was violated and a constitutional state body was taken over by force. I have held consultations with the First President of the Supreme Court, Zbigniew Kapiński, who likewise does not recognise as legal the actions taken by persons usurping power in the Constitutional Tribunal.
I call for the restoration of the legal order and for the coercive forces sent there by the government to leave the Tribunal’s premises.
I have facilitated access to the Constitutional Tribunal for its lawfully serving Vice-President, Judge Bartłomiej Sochański.
In view of the threat to the internal security of the Republic of Poland, I am convening urgent consultations today with representatives of the parliamentary groupings, aimed at stabilising the political situation and restoring the constitutional order.
I thank everyone who is at the Constitutional Tribunal, standing in defence of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland.”
All newspapers are the owners preferences and propaganda and always will be
Another reason that I will be cancelling my Telegraph subscription on Monday.
Not just the departure of Allison Pearson, Liam Halligan, Sherelle Jacobs and other fine journalists but because of this:
The new owners (Springer) require ALL employees to SUPPORT A UNITED EUROPE OR THEY SHOULD LEAVE.
If they think for a moment that I am paying money for THAT, they are very much mistaken.
I think their cancellation phone lines ☎️ are going to be VERY BUSY on Monday.
fletchbog retweeted
as someone who works in the software industry in britain, i can't believe there are contracts and estimates like this.
it seems getting these government contracts is incredibly lucrative in the uk, because the amounts are absolutely insane. £1.7bn to £4.4bn for hmrc's customer system? pre ai that's a crazy number. post ai it's still crazy.
for a fraction of the cost you could hire britain's top 50 engineers and pay them £300k a year. over 15 years that's £225m. it would cost less and be way better than what will come out of this.
put the rest into an ai lab and you'd have one of the best funded in europe. but no, it's an hmrc crm system lol.
fletchbog retweeted
Local piemaker explains how Burnham's first Budget will make things much worse:
"I don’t qualify for the business rates relief because I’m multi-site… I’ve got two shops, so I don’t qualify. The minimum wage has increased. I’m not saying we shouldn’t pay staff. I’m saying we can’t afford to pay them…
All my staff have been with us for years. So I’m going to have approximately a £700 a week increase. My suppliers are having an increase too. My supply bills are around £20,000 to £30,000 a week. That’ll go up 10%, so £2,000 to £3,000 a week. So that’s £4,000 a week I’ve got to find…
That’s about 20,000 to 30,000 pies a week. So my costs have gone up. I’ve got no business rates relief. The National Insurance is crippling me. The energy crisis is crippling me. I’m going to have to put my prices up,
Customers are going to get mad. I’m going to get less profit. As a family, as a director, I’ve got to take a 2% cut. So my family, my one-year-old girl. I’m taking a pay cut. The business is taking a pay cut.
How is that breathing room for me? Where’s my breathing space? John Healey, if you’re listening, where’s my breathing space? You promised me. You promised the UK breathing space. Where is it?"
fletchbog retweeted
It astounds me how little some people understand inflation and what causes it.
Take my last point about the minimum wage. Why not £100 an hour? Why not £1,000? We'd all be rich then, wouldn't we? Marvellous.
Except, of course, we wouldn't. Raising wages by law doesn't magically conjure wealth out of thin air. When wages rise faster than productivity, the money must be found somewhere. Businesses can swallow the cost, raise prices, cut jobs or simply close their doors. And when those price rises spread throughout the economy, inflation eats away at the purchasing power of the very wages that have increased.
It's a closed loop. Businesses must earn the money to pay their workers, and that money ultimately comes from customers. You cannot simply legislate prosperity into existence.
And let me tell you an uncomfortable truth: the real minimum wage is zero.
fletchbog retweeted
In 1999 you had to earn over 4x the minimum wage to be considered a higher earner on the 40% rate.
Today just 1.8x the minimum wage considered high earner!
If the same minimum-wage-to-high-earner ratio was applied from 1999 you’d have to earn over £115k before hitting the 40% income tax rate.
We’re seeing a level of wage compression that would make a Soviet era socialist blush.
I bet he did!
🚨 NEW: John Healey has announced Ukraine will receive £10bn in additional economic and military support
"We called him this morning... he told us we made his day"
#Budget
fletchbog retweeted
This is crazy. If you have been on the mimimum wage since April 2020 you've had a 50% payrise in just 6 years. Meanwhile a skilled worker would be no where near these levels of pay increases.
There is no point in showing any ambition, get training, studying , promotions.
fletchbog retweeted
Back in 2010, the minimum wage was £12,064 and the 'higher earner' band started at £43,875.
You only paid 40% tax once you were earning 3.6x the minimum wage.
There was clear incentive to progress, learn and aspire for more.
As things stand, you now start paying 40% tax once you earn £50,270 which is just 1.83x the minimum wage.
If it was the same multiple as 2010, the 'higher earning' band would be £98,841 and everyone below this amount would be paying 20%.
Someone on £98,841 is effectively losing out on £9714.20 net per year if the bandings had simply moved in line with previous multiples relative to minimum wage.
This is one of the reasons why the middle class is being eroded and why there's a cost of living crisis in the UK.
An increase to £13.20p/h equates to a minimum wage of £27,456, based on a 40 hour week.
Once you factor in employers NI and basic pension contributions, the MINIMUM cost to hire a 21 year old for a company would be £31,461.
This is before you factor in any overarching business costs like office space, laptops, phone, software, training, support staff, vehicles etc.
This is going to be devastating to SME's who cant put together a simple 12 month budget without the goalposts being moved & their margins squeezed.
It'll also be catastrophic to youngsters opportunities because businesses will simply not be able to afford to hire them.
What's also incredible is that anything above £50,270 is seen as 'high earnings' in the UK and is taxed at 40%!
We are governed by financially and economically illiterate morons.
This will not end well.