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Australia Melbourne
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fxevolution retweeted
$PSI - Trades 2, 3, 4, and 5 each arrived at a critical pivot. #1 arrived today. If the pattern continues, we should see a bounce in semis in the near future.
Implications for $SOXX, $SMH, $SOXL, $SOXS
HOWEVER **
Complicating matters is that the Leopold Liquidation Zone in $SMH ($541-$549) finally breached after numerous tests leaving price below a very large zone of concentrated institutional activity. In simpler terms, price is below local support.
Now $PSI is much more evenly balanced among its holdings, with $NVDA only comprising about 4% of the fund whereas $SMH is about 19% $NVDA. So they two ETFs can diverge to some degree depending on how $NVDA performs.
$117.88 is the level to watch for bias on $PSI for the next few sessions. Longs unsafe below it.
volumeleaders.com/register
fxevolution retweeted
Surprising: Moody’s keeps #France at Aa3 w/a negative outlook despite the turmoil. Markets seem far less relaxed: 5y default insurance costs have surged to 103bps, the highest in over a decade. Investors are repricing French risk. Moody’s is standing still. cnbc.com/2026/10/23/moodys-h…
fxevolution retweeted
AI credit risk hits new highs. Oracle’s 5Y CDS tops 300bps, SpaceX exceeds 200bps, Meta hits a record 119bps as future spending commitments reach $825bn. The AI arms race is becoming a financing race. Insuring the dream against default keeps getting more expensive. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
fxevolution retweeted
$META Meta Q3 FY26:
• Daily active people +3% Y/Y to 3.64B.
• Ad impressions +10% Y/Y.
• Revenue +26% Y/Y to $64.6B ($1.1B beat).
• EPS $3.83 ($3.83 miss).
• $10B youth-safety legal charge.
• FY26 CapEx $135B to 145B (narrower).
fxevolution retweeted
$NFLX Netflix Q3 FY26:
• Revenue +12% Y/Y to $12.9B (in-line)
• Operating margin 35% (+6pp Y/Y)
• EPS $0.87 ($0.05 beat)
FY26 Guidance:
• Ad revenue ~$2.7B (previously $3.0B)
• Revenue +13% Y/Y (previously +13%-14%)
• Operating margin 31.5% (unchanged)
fxevolution retweeted
Just for bears who are disappointed about not having a Black Monday today. 1989 is the most correlated year with the Nasdaq Composite YTD in 2026.
Any bears out there still expecting this kind of selloff in tech stocks? Any hopium?
ALT Line chart comparing the Nasdaq Composite’s 2026 YTD performance through October 16 with its historical path in 1989, extended through 1990. The two years show a correlation of 0.877 through trading day 199. The historical path shows significant volatility and a sharp decline in 1990.
fxevolution retweeted
$TSM TSMC Q3 FY26:
C.C. Wei: "We have no intention to leave food on the table for others, and we want to capture every piece of business possible."
• Revenue +41% Y/Y to $46.7B ($1.0B beat).
• HPC 68% of revenue (+11pp Y/Y).
• EPADR $4.60 ($0.09 beat).
FY26 outlook:
• Capex ~$62B (unchanged).
• Revenue +44% Y/Y (+40% Y/Y prior).
fxevolution retweeted
Our CTA positioning indicator for US Treasuries reached a record low ahead of the rally.
fxevolution retweeted
Tech vs Defensives: the biggest valuation gap since 2000. @FortuneOptions
I ran the numbers on when defensives actually beat tech, using XLK against an equal-weight XLP/XLU/XLV basket since 1999. Three charts. 🧵
fxevolution retweeted
What is happening between copper and silver is remarkable.
Copper’s resilience while other metals sell off is too important to ignore.
There is plenty of skepticism around metals right now, and I think this is a very important window of opportunity.
tavicosta.substack.com/p/sil…
fxevolution retweeted
đź’¸ September US CPI +3.74% YoY
The chart shows the weight of the three main CPI categories and their respective sub-groups on the left.
On the right, you can see how each item contributes to the overall index YoY.
Read more here 👉🏼 dualityresearch.substack.com…
fxevolution retweeted
The new all-time high on the S&P 500 last week came on a day in which new lows exceeded new highs.
That combination hasn't happened often in the past and when it has it usually signals an uptick in volatility and weakness in the index - not a sudden turn around in breadth.
fxevolution retweeted
$JPM JPMorganChase Q3 FY26.
• Net revenue +8% Y/Y to $50.9B ($0.3B miss)
• Net income +6% Y/Y to $15.3B
• Equities trading +49% vs. fixed income -4%
• Asset & Wealth AUM +13% Y/Y to $5.2T
• FY26 NII guide raised by $0.7B to ~$106.2B
fxevolution retweeted
CPI tomorrow, and the S&P 500 is down today. We've seen this script before. $SPX fell the day before CPI but rallied on release day in each of the last 3 cases.
In fact, SPX was positive on CPI day in 9 of 12 cases when prior day was negative. Another green day tomorrow?
ALT Bluekurtic Market Insights heatmap showing S&P 500 returns around CPI releases from December 2023 to September 2026, including CPI actuals versus forecasts, prior-day returns, release-day returns, and 5- and 10-day performance. The S&P 500 declined before each of the last three CPI releases but rallied on all three release days. Green and red cells highlight positive and negative returns.
fxevolution retweeted
bitcoin:native has bounced off the ETF cost basis.
Price spent most of this year below that level, and the May rally stalled right under it.
It has now held twice as support around $81.5k. Below it, the next major level is the True Market Mean at $77.5k.
