GachaPad

Here's what happened across the ecosystem this week. ▶︎ @virtuals_io deployed @dreamlabs_ai's Dream-1 zero-shot in a self-configured lab setup through its Eastworlds division, letting anyone give the robot a task from their browser, and agentic copy trading went live on Virtuals App. ▶︎ @OpenGradient had a record week with nearly 5.4 billion tokens processed in seven days and 275,000+ new requests, pushing its totals past 22.5 billion tokens across 1.53 million+ private inferences. ▶︎ @xmaquina saw Proposal BOT-15 pass with over 34M votes and 88% approval for a strategic allocation in @SkildAI, while @NEURARobotics unveiled its next generation humanoid, 4NE1 Gen 4. ▶︎ @reppo crossed 910M locked REPPO traded to evaluate data via its prediction market mechanism, with ~118M total volume excluding centralized exchanges, and showcased a loop demo using the Eval API on the Eval console to evaluate an LLM's BTC price call. ▶︎ @axol_io is now listed on @RWAFoundation_, Raxol agents got access to $ZCHF trading via @xochi_fi, and Raxol got shielded settlement via @xochi_fi as an official V6 Launch Partner with @aztecnetwork. ▶︎ @LighthouseWeb3 added encrypted context support to Lighthouse Memory through Walrus Memory on @WalrusProtocol, appeared at the @arbitrum x @RobinhoodCrypto Open House, and posted a weekly recap thread covering product updates and Singapore. ▶︎ @ProjectVEXai saw VEX agents execute $3.5M+ in trading volume before the product launches, with the agentic trading product now in internal testing featuring connected off-chain trading and up to 60 days of autonomy. ▶︎ @OfVoice25355 deposited 2,000 USDC into Aave V3 on Base at 3.6% APY with the vault pipeline confirmed on-chain, and holds 500 PYUSD for the next move. ▶︎ @caesar_data introduced a new Caesar that finds security vulnerabilities without handing over code access, with an initial report provided at no cost. ▶︎ @itsovercall listed $CASHCAT (@cashcat_token) on the Overcall platform and is now listed on @DefiLlama, with fees, revenue and volume tracked from the chain. ▶︎ @grid_arena bought back 12.8M $Grid from the open market with revenue from @OndoPerps on Grid and burned every token, more than 1% of supply, became an official part of the @Ondo ecosystem, and traders have moved $12M+ in volume on @OndoPerps since launch with Ondo Stocks covering 450+ U.S. stocks and ETFs going live. ▶︎ @Arvo_Protocol completed independent security audits of its staking contracts and app by @soken_team, and internal checks, testnet, external audit, mainnet readiness and introductory vault configuration are all complete with early access next. ▶︎ @ChainInsightsHQ is adding $CIA subscription access to the MCP server next week with a free tier until then, and Chain Insights maps blockchain as a graph across DEXs including @Uniswap, @Balancer, @CurveFinance and @PancakeSwap. ▶︎ @KarmaWallet brought X Layer live on Karma so @XLayerOfficial tokens can be traded alongside Solana and Base positions, and Explore now has an X Layer view with tokens that have real liquidity. ▶︎ @capminal made Gemini 4 Argon and kimi-k3.1-pro from @Kimi_Moonshot available on OpenCAP, and announced it is winding down its agentic wallet product. ▶︎ @tradeongtr launched $ANT Perps live on gtr.trade with 10x leverage, referencing 1 share of Anthropic PBC Class A common stock pre-IPO. ▶︎ @WizzHQ launched Crypto SIP on Velocity, letting users buy a coin on a schedule starting from $1, and introduced @velocityosxyz with a waitlist. ▶︎ @convik_ai shipped Convik V2 with provable reasoning, an AI committee that argues before every trade called The Committee, Thesis Health and Stress Lab, and Convik Lens turns what you point a camera at into an index of tokenized stocks. ▶︎ @GachaPad went live and permissionless at 6:30 pm UTC as a launchpad where tokens drop as loot boxes, with the Opening Banner running until Nov 7th offering 85% cashback on spins if a machine doesn't graduate and gas covered via Privy login. ▶︎ @wardenprotocol will have the WARD token migration handled by @Gate, with the migration automatic and requiring no claim while trading stays open during the swap, and LPs must remove WARD liquidity before Thursday 29 Oct, 07:00 UTC ahead of the 08:00 UTC snapshot.

We are happy to announce that $GACHACAT is now live on @GachaPad Link..: gachapad.com/launch/0xA39CcE… The first cat just hit the pad. Every spin wins a bag of $GACHACAT. No snipes. No rugs. Just luck. @GachaPad is now fully permissionless on Base, tokens drop as loot boxes, VRF decides the bags, LP stays locked. Spin $GACHACAT & win the bag. Who’s spinning first?

Today is the day - going permissionless at 6:30 pm UTC. 🎰 Kicking things off with the Opening Banner. Until Nov 7th: - 85% cashback on spins if a machine doesn’t graduate - log in with Privy, and the gas is on us - spin more, earn more: 10M $GACHA leaderboard competition - 10% of every token supply straight to $GACHA stakers - first 50 machines to graduate: their creators keep 100% of swap fees, forever Any token is a lootbox, luck is the only edge. See you at the crank.

Caught the whole week on Base and here's what actually shipped. · @virtuals_io went live with agentic copy trading on Virtuals App so Butler can act on public traders' moves across chains and hedge BTC and ETH on @DeriveXYZ or buy native Pearl on @prlnet. · @OpenGradient had its fastest week yet with 3.6 billion tokens in seven days and 160,000+ new requests, passing 1.25 million private inferences and 17.1 billion tokens. · @xmaquina passed proposal BOT-15 with over 34M votes and 88% approval to move to execution of the @SkildAI allocation while @NEURARobotics unveiled 4NE1 Gen 4. · @reppo added x402 support for the Eval API so any agent can access on-demand evals without payment rails and is collaborating with @openservai to encourage builders to build with it. · @axol_io got access to Shielded settlement via @xochi_fi and became an official V6 Launch Partner with @aztecnetwork, plus Axol.io is now listed on @RWAFoundation_. · @LighthouseWeb3 is at the @arbitrum Founder House with @RobinhoodCrypto in Singapore and published a piece arguing AI memory will be bigger than inference and should belong to the user. · @itsovercall is now listed on @DefiLlama with fees, revenue and volume tracked from the chain after 4 days of Overcall mainnet on Robinhood Chain saw 109 players and 2,422 positions opened. · @GachaPad goes permissionless on Oct 26 letting anyone launch tokens as loot boxes, giving players 85% cashback if a machine doesn't graduate while the first 50 graduating machines pay 100% of swap fees forever. · @convik_ai shipped V2, an AI agent for tokenized stock portfolios with provable reasoning that adds The Committee where a skeptic attacks every decision plus Thesis Health and a Stress Lab.

📄 Base Daily Recap What happened on @base in the last 24 hours News ■ @coinbase connected agents to Coinbase accounts, trading crypto, stocks and derivatives from one conversation. ■ @buildonbase streamed the Onchain Champions League Final. ■ @base streamed the Base Meme Summit. ■ @base welcomed Aero aboard, the exchange built from the Aerodrome and Velodrome merger. ■ @davidtsocy said Forecast is loading its mainnet. Stats ■ @beefyfinance pays 369% APY on $SPCXB and 462% on $TSLAB in tokenized stock vaults. ■ @zyfai_ cut emergency exits from 37 seconds to 7. ■ @mamo sends $3K+ in Aero trading fee rewards to depositors. ■ @myrad_hq saw 300+ users upload images ahead of a fourth data segment. ■ @gachapad refunds 85% of spins when a machine misses graduation. Markets ■ @aave is bringing the $150 trillion equities market into DeFi on Base. ■ @verantaxyz turns an X post into a long or short position in seconds. ■ @opensea pays referrers 25% of their friends' swap fees on mobile. ■ @fomo lands crosschain swaps in under one second. ■ @rifthq swaps crosschain into tokenized stocks on Base in one click. Ecosystem ■ @quigleynft reported an onchain agent borrowed USDC against its own NFT-bound wallet. ■ @moonpay paid 24 creators from a single Claude prompt using stablecoins. ■ @jumperapp added infiniFi with up to 10% bonus APY and $100K in incentives. ■ @korprotocol released Zodiac Circus IV with 400+ submitted artists. ■ @feeldotcash is adding more stock-paired memes to Base. ■ @ipodaaplc marked its 25th birthday and pointed holders to feel.cash buybacks. ■ @weftfinance opened token launches where every trade buys back $WEFT. AI and Agents ■ @openservai opened SERV Hackathon 02 with inference and payments tracks. ■ @hellominds_ made MiniMax M3 the main model behind Minds. ■ @imgn_ai opened its browser-based Director beta for AI video. ■ @zeroclick lets agents buy search, maps and jobs data through OpenWeb Ninja.

The Audit Of The Memecoin Casino Since late August we have recorded every trade on every pump fun and Stonk launch on Solana. Not a sample. All of it: 384 million swaps from 7.7 million wallets across more than a million pools, every bonding curve and every pool that follows it. That is over 56 GB of data and 820 million rows of market history, and it grows by 18 to 25 million trades, up to a million wallets and more than 60,000 new launches every day. We measured each coin minute by minute. We scored every entry by what the coin did next. We trained neural nets on the result, then went wallet by wallet looking for the people who actually win. The question was simple: can anyone see the big move coming before it happens? The short answer is no. The long answer is worse than no, because the data does not just fail to find an edge for you. It shows, in detail, who holds the edge, how they use it, and what they do with you. Start with a coin that has actually caught a bid: real volume, real buyers, the kind of thing that shows up on your screener. From any given moment, about one in ten of those doubles within the next 24 hours. The rest bleed, and the bleeding is not gentle. Now take a wallet's first buy into a live coin. Every first buy, 22.8 million of them over a two-week window. In 17% of those entries the coin doubles before it drops 40%. Trade that mechanically, double or stop, and you lose about 19% per attempt after costs. Call that the house hold. A slot machine keeps 5 to 10%. This keeps 19%, per pull, before any skill or selection is applied. The reason is the shape of the payoff. A 2× pays you 100%. The failures do not cost you 10%; they cost you 50%, 80%, 95%. To break even you have to be right far more often than the game allows. The cabal is real, and we can see it CT calls it the cabal. The data calls it a cluster: a set of wallets whose first buys land within a minute of each other, on the same brand-new coins, over and over. We do not find them by name or PFP. They fall out of the trade stream all on their own. They are there. Swarms of 450, 1,400 and 2,000 wallets that hit hundreds of launches a week, moving in within the first minute or two of a coin's life. Smaller, tighter groups of 7 to 50 wallets that pick their spots. Across daily refreshes the count has run from 9 groups to 33, with members rotating in and out as wallets burn and fresh ones take their place. They are not guessing. The coins the big swarms pile into double 28 to 46% of the time, three to four times the base rate. Their own entries, across every coin they touch, run 50 to 60% to a 2× before a 40% drop, against 17% for everyone else. That is what an edge looks like in this market. It belongs to a few hundred wallets, and it is applied to tens of thousands of launches with industrial regularity. Copying them loses too The obvious retort: find the cabal, copy the cabal. We did exactly that. A machine watches every launch every minute and flags the moment a known group piles in. Then we traded every flag the way a fast human could: in two minutes behind the group, double or stop out at −40%, out after a day. Following the big swarms lost 41% per coin across 93 coins. The median result was −95%. Not because they were wrong; their coins doubled 28% of the time. Two minutes behind them is simply already the top of the move. They bought at launch. You bought the candle they are selling into. Following only the groups with a positive track record still lost 11% per coin. Following one good wallet on its own lost 20% per trade in our back-tests. The single pocket that came out ahead, a handful of small, tight groups, made about 10% per coin over 16 coins. That is a few days of trades and nothing anyone should bet a bankroll on. The cabal's edge is not information you can borrow. It is position. By the time their trade is visible on-chain, the thing that made it profitable is gone. The best model we could build still loses We also tried the honest version: no cabal, just prediction. Dozens of signals per coin every minute, price, flow, liquidity, holder behaviour, bot share, fed into neural nets trained on our own history and tested on days they had never seen. It works, in the sense a quant would recognize. The top of its ranking doubles 26% of the time against a 10% base rate. Two and a half times better than chance. It also loses money every single day. 771 picks over eight days; every day negative; −11% per pick on the same double-or-stop rule; the median pick down 45%; 55% stopped out within 24 hours. The ranking is real and the P&L is still red. The losers are deeper than the winners are tall, and nothing observable at the five-minute mark separates the coin that keeps going from the one that reverses. That is the part worth meditating on: a model 2.5× better than chance odds is still a losing model. Why nobody sees it coming The reason is simple, and it should change how you look at every chart. A meme coin moves because a few people decide to move it: the operator holding the supply, the caller with an audience, the wallet group with the bankroll. That decision is made off-chain. The chain only shows you its execution, the swaps, the volume, the new holders, and by then the first leg is done. Everything a trader looks at, from a screener to a chart to a wallet tracker, is a photograph of a decision that has already been made. The data is enormous and almost all of it is the crowd reacting. The informative part, a few hundred wallets' intent, is visible only at the instant it executes, and the people executing it are the ones selling to you a few minutes later. Add 60,000 launches a day, and the future 100× at minute one is indistinguishable from the 59,999 that die. The casino does not need to hide the cards because it deals them faster than anyone can read and analyze them. Conclusion After spending thousands of dollars in API credits, VPS costs, Claude credits, etc the goal was simple: find alpha - if it exists - in order to be able to monetize it. Instead, all we were able to prove is what we all have suspected all along - the meme coin casino is almost entirely cabal driven. 🫡 From the depths — The White Whale 🐋

This Week in Virtuals: Memory and Permissionless Markets for Agents Lighthouse launched via Virtuals so agents share one memory across Claude and ChatGPT. VEX, Warden and Otto let them trade perps and tokenized stocks. Plus 2 major Virtuals App updates. Here's what shipped: VIRTUALS APP 🟩 See a portfolio on X? Own it in one tap: paste the post, even a screenshot, into Butler. It reads every asset and its weight, then buys the whole mix of tokens and stocks, whatever chains they're on. One approval instead of 15 separate trades. 🟩 Your own scalping desk: describe how you want to trade, and Butler builds the full scalping setup around your parameters, then runs it from your wallet and manages the capital for you. No code, no babysitting, no staring at charts. ECOSYSTEM 🟩 @LighthouseWeb3 launched on Robinhood Chain via @virtuals_io, giving your agents one shared memory across ChatGPT, Claude and more. 🟩 @ethy_agent launched Memory, so Ethy keeps your ideas, preferences and trading rules in every chat, got its token verified on @CoinbaseWallet, and previewed Trading Quant, its V3 flagship. 🟩 @sibyl_labs_ now connects every agent harness on your device to one local memory store with sibyl setup, and shipped Payments with Stripe card payments and a full account dashboard. 🟩 @wardenprotocol's Warden MCP turns Claude, ChatGPT or Grok into a trading agent within the limits and expiry you set. Post a chart read on Token Terminal and earn 20% of the fee on trades through it for 7 days. 🟩 @ProjectVEXai gives coding agents tools to swap, bridge and trade perps, and KAIROS 0.3.1 cut @Lighter_xyz perp fees by 80%. 🟩 @useOttoAI's Otto Stocks is the only result for tokenized stocks in Claude's connector directory, and its new Yield Copilot compares USDC rates across Aave, Morpho and Maple, then swaps and deposits in one transaction. 🟩 @GachaPad launched its loot box launchpad on @base via @virtuals_io, and its first machine graduated in under an hour. 🟩 @axol_io opened its app in beta with the Raxol agent built in, and Raxol agents can now pay in EURe from their own wallet, within your limit. 🟩 @itsovercall's testnet passed 122,926 positions and 642M testnet tokens in volume ahead of mainnet on Oct 19, with 25M+ tokens staked and channel royalties paying you on every winning call from a channel you share. 🟩 @KarmaWallet brought @itsovercall prediction markets into its app and gave a first look at Karma Web, where agents trade your strategy. 🟩 @cybercentry moved ERC-8376 to Draft on @ethereum, a proposal developed with @DonJohnsonSays to flag launch abuse and help buyers recover funds. 🟩 @reppo's Eval API sends an agent's work to independent judges for scores and critiques, with 25K+ eval credits used since launch and a world model team in final stages to adopt it. 🟩 @myrad_hq opened Season 3 reward claims, with 100+ claimed and 19,000+ users, and is expanding beyond behavioral data into images, video and audio, starting with image uploads. 🟩 @Wall3_RL's Wall3 Agent values companies in ranges, running several agents and thousands of simulations per question. The same engine broke down Microsoft, Argan Agentic Fund's best September holding at +31.57%. 🟩 @RatehopperAI won a $5,000 Builder Grant from @base to let anyone deploy an AI agent that earns trading fees, and launched an Analytics page showing how its live agents run the treasury. 🟩 @PlayKindra launched IRONWAKE, 3v3 tank battles in 3D, added 16 free Kindra Originals, and now lets brands host sponsored contests inside any of the 23 games on Kindra Studio. ROBOTICS 🟩 @xmaquina portfolio company @NEURARobotics introduced Neuron AI, one model for five robot bodies combining vision, touch, sound and memory, and @HalbornSecurity completed the audit of XMAQUINA's RCM Protocol, moving it closer to launch. 🟩 @StrikeRobot_ai's SR Platform turns a prompt into a simulation-ready scene, checks geometry, articulation and physics, and lets you add your robot and inspect it from every angle before simulation. 🟩 @Vader_AI_ distributed 200,000 tokens to Season 7 contributors and opened Season 8, with new tasks live to earn Vader Points.