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Gary B retweeted
No 10 tries to set the record straight.
They *won't* guarantee benefit spending will fall before the next election, and add it wouldn't be right to set an "arbitrary target or timeline on that”.
The PM’s spokesman says the welfare bill “needs to come down” but refuses to be drawn on how much by or based on what measure. Only that there won’t be “crude cuts”.
Uh oh… after John Healey clearly promised on @BBCr4today that the benefits bill will be cut before the next election, @ChrisMasonBBC tells listeners the Treasury have since been on the phone disputing he said this and that he wasn’t putting a timeline on welfare reductions.
Gary B retweeted
Good to see the PM "recognising journalism not as a nice-to-have, but as part of the national infrastructure of a healthy country and democracy".
Just a shame it comes on the eve of him jetting off to a major summit and, for the first time, refusing to take a press pack...
Gary B retweeted
This utterly bleak line from the Resolution Foundation on living standards in their overnight Budget analysis.
"Between now (2026-27) and the end of the Parliament (2028-29), typical incomes are forecast to fall in total by £1,050 (3 per cent)."
In other words: On average we'll be getting poorer in the run-up to the next election.
Gary B retweeted
King Charles is scheduled to return from his autumn Caribbean tour on Wednesday, November 4, this will be a perfect time for Burnham to go and see him and call an election!!
Gary B retweeted
Being self-employed, this and Making Tax Digital make me want to emigrate. Ever more bureaucratic inconvenience for such a paltry, negligible gain to the public purse!
The hidden tax measure in the Budget is huge for people paying tax under self-assessment - sole traders, partners, landlords, retired investors.
For 6th April 2028-29, you currently pay 50% of your income tax late in the tax year in question (in January 2029), 50% just after the year end (in July 2029) with any make-up payment in January 2030.
Under the new proposals you will pay your tax perhaps monthly or quarterly (TBC) from April 2029 onwards. A rough analysis suggests the impact is to draw about 50% of your tax bill forward, a huge cashflow boost to HMRC and a significant funding issue for the self-employed.
The Treasury recognises this, and expects to raise £1.3bn of additional tax in 29/30 as a result of this change.
The cashflow impact of the accelerated charge will send some businesses to the wall.
Gary B retweeted
Back with @MrMBrown and @marcusashworth tomorrow to record our post-Budget podcast. Guaranteed to be a laugh. Plenty to say about that dreadful Budget!
And the nameless red dragon is making his first appearance. Come on, surely someone can think of a name for the poor bugger?
Absolutely love doing the GBTT weekly macro roundup with these two rogues.
We have such a laugh, and you never know what's going to come up.
@mrmbrown @marcusashworth
Gary B retweeted
Mindblowing chart from OBR. In 2029 real household disposable income per person expected to be just 1% higher than in 2019. What an unbelievably awful decade. It used to grow by 2%+ every year, not 1% in 10 years.
Gary B retweeted
This is fucking mental
The hidden tax measure in the Budget is huge for people paying tax under self-assessment - sole traders, partners, landlords, retired investors.
For 6th April 2028-29, you currently pay 50% of your income tax late in the tax year in question (in January 2029), 50% just after the year end (in July 2029) with any make-up payment in January 2030.
Under the new proposals you will pay your tax perhaps monthly or quarterly (TBC) from April 2029 onwards. A rough analysis suggests the impact is to draw about 50% of your tax bill forward, a huge cashflow boost to HMRC and a significant funding issue for the self-employed.
The Treasury recognises this, and expects to raise £1.3bn of additional tax in 29/30 as a result of this change.
The cashflow impact of the accelerated charge will send some businesses to the wall.
Gary B retweeted
John Healey got his can and gave it an almighty kick down the road
thetimes.com/article/27e6b41…
Gary B retweeted
Someone earning £150,000 pays over 7x the income tax as someone on £50,000. Compared to someone on £30,000, it is 15x.
We have essentially created a system reliant on a very small number of individuals being bled white and keeping a far smaller proportion of what they earn.
I earn £100 grand a year.
I have a detached house. 2 cars and my wife is a full time home maker.
I can just about afford this. I probably couldn’t afford the house I own if I was buying for the first time today.
My salary puts me in the top 5% of earners in the UK.
Top 5% to have a similar standard of living to Homer Simpson.
That is a disgrace.
We have a flatter salary distribution than Soviet Russia and the highest taxes and borrowing costs we’ve seen in generations.
Success is almost impossible because our tax system means hard work makes you a stressed out tax cow, not wealthy and certainly not free.
We need something radical.
Less state.
More family.
Less handouts.
More reward for risk.
Instead. Tomorrow, Labour will offer another batch of policies which will send one message to aspirational Brits: why bother.
Gary B retweeted
🚨 BREAKING: EU countries have dropped the idea of offering Canada "associate member" status in the 27-member bloc, opting instead for softer language promising "ever closer association," according to a draft statement, seen by POLITICO.
Full story: vist.ly/5qd4s
Gary B retweeted
An enterprising opposition would UQ this astonishing breach of convention. Lewis says he's a journalist, but no journalist would blab about a pre-briefing hours before the budget is delivered. This man is regarded as some sort of saint, but he seems utterly unaccountable to anyone. Parliament should step in
CONFIRMED. Gas Standing Charges to be scrapped. I've just come out of a meeting with the Chancellor. The gas standing charge will be scrapped in 2027 (my guess, either for 1 Oct price cap or the 1 Jan 28 price cap). Having campaigned against the moral hazard of standing charges for years, I'm pleased.
It's currently £108 a year. That cost will be shifted onto unit rates. We don't know how much yet, but I suspect just under 1p per kwH.
The Chancellor also said he will be talking to Ofgem about how they get rid of the charge on electricity as well, but that is 'trickier' apparently and will take longer.
This is primarily about the price cap standing charges. There will still be an open market, so other firms can offer other forms of prices with or without the standing charge. My suspicion is that once it goes on the price cap, it will tend to be reduced on other tariffs as well.
As for those on fixes: if you get a fix now, the rate of your fix is fixed, so this should not affect it. You will pay what you pay and if it has standing charges they will continue (some asking if they should delay fixing because of this, no if a fix is right for you and will save you money, don't let this change that - this is about the structure of bills, as opposed to the actual costs on bills).
About 60% of people will pay less due to this, 40% more. My guesstimate is the dividing line will be somewhere around 12,500 kilowatt hours of gas (can't know until there is actual pricing). According to a study by Nesta, this switch would leave the majority of people in all income groups under £100,000 better off.
Of course, when this does come in, if we're still in the nightmare that we are right now, there will need to be support put in for vulnerable higher users, who will have to pay more. Though hopefully by then the mid-east will have calmed and energy prices lower.
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That's all long term. The biggest issue in energy right now is that we're expecting a 27% rise in the price cap in January. I asked the Chancellor whether he will be intervening on that. He told me I'd have to wait for the budget, but reading between the lines, yes, there will be an announcement today.
Whether it's an increase in the Warm Home Discount, or whether it's council tax banned, or whether it's done via a payout for people in say council tax bands A-D as a proxy for household income as Rishi Sunak did who knows.
Gary B retweeted
£10m of gains at 10% CGT.
Healey's new Founders' Relief sounds like a gift to start-ups.
Read the conditions and it's a prize for the few who've already won.
Gary B retweeted
Putting an end to this would be the easiest win in politics. No more tax rises. Deficit down. GDP up. Popular with the public.
But they can’t do it because of their lunatic, benefits-obsessed backbenchers.
Gary B retweeted
"More timely payment for self-assessment – The government will require Income Tax Self-Assessment taxpayers who make payments on account to make more regular in-year payments towards their final tax bill from April 2029."
How regular are these payments? The Budget doesn't make it clear. How many more times are self-employed people going to be forced through the torture of logging into gov.uk?