Finding Africa's hidden investment gems 🌍💰
Edinburgh
Joined March 2023
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Eight Zimbabwean banks coordinating a US$150m facility is notable. I'd want to know USD availability through disbursement, and what surrender requirements sit on top. Worth tracking.
Caledonia Secures US$150m Zimbabwe Bank Facility for Bilboes thezimbabwemail.com/business…
Slower Investor retweeted
Highly relevant!
"The Global Office: How Globalisation’s Frontier is Shifting from Factories to Offices" by Richard Baldwin.
"This paper argues that globalisation’s frontier has shifted from manufacturing GVCs to services GVCs: from the Global Factory to the Global Office. While the Factory remains larger in gross trade, the Office is growing much faster. A heatmap of trade in intermediates shows that the Factory is bloc-shaped and dominated by China, whereas the Office is star-shaped and dominated by America. Gravity estimates show that distance matters less for Office exports, but time zones matter more: each hour of time-zone separation reduces Office exports by roughly 4%, while having no effect on Factory exports. Importantly, all of the world’s export-linked net job creation between 2008 and 2022 occurred in digitally delivered services rather than manufacturing, and trade-linked service jobs command higher average pay globally. The Factory-to-Office shift is also reshaping development. Most emerging economies have seen export-led growth tilt towards services, but their service exports are not yet large enough to drive overall GDP growth the way manufacturing did historically. The big picture is that globalisation’s second unbundling is running out of steam even as its third unbundling is powering ahead. The paper, which raises more questions than it answers, closes with the conjecture that the future of trade is services."
nber.org/papers/w35975
Sensible move. ADNOC registration is the gate, and I would guess the In-Country Value scoring decides whether a branch or a local partner makes more sense. KEZAD helps if they manufacture in-country.
The UAE is emerging as a strategic growth market for UK-based Calder. The company is exploring opportunities to strengthen its presence through industrial equipment, specialised pumping systems and potential local partnerships.
#UAEBusiness #UKUAE #EnergyIndustry
Slower Investor retweeted
Agriculture drives nearly 30% of Africa’s GDP but secures only 6% of bank credit, leaving a $100 billion annual funding gap.
Speaking at #AFIS2026, Seyi Kumapayi, DMD African Subsidiaries at Access Bank, emphasized that closing this divide requires replacing rigid monthly loans with credit aligned to actual harvest cycles.
By lending through established value chains and using digital data to reduce serving costs, commercial banks can safely de-risk farming and scale Africa’s real economy.
#AccessBank #AccessAtAFIS #AFIS2026 #AgriFinance
Nearly doubling in 11 years is a real feat. But steel plants eat capital and returns across the industry have historically been poor. I would want to see the ROIC before celebrating.
The fake promises are the real story. I have seen similar in Nigeria, people borrow or sell assets to fund migration, then lose the lot to agents and visa refusals. A big leakage that never shows up in the official numbers.
Inga 3 has been 'nearly there' for two decades. The binding constraint isn't capital, it's offtake certainty and SNEL's revenue collection. I expect miners to keep building captive plants while that stays unresolved.
Congo's SNEL wants investors for $12b of electricity projects as power deficit stalls growth. Miners need 5,800 mw and get less than half.
Last week in Paris, Congo proposed a 4,800 mw Inga 3 to US & World Bank officials for domestic consumption only. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Lifestyle absorbs it. DIFC's DEWS scheme now gives those on DIFC contracts a workplace savings structure. Beyond that it is on the individual. I have watched many an expat arrive with good intentions and leave with little.
What a £200,000 salary actually pays you:
In the UK:
Income tax: £76,203
National Insurance: £6,011
Take home: £117,786
In Dubai:
Take home: £200,000
£82,214 a year. Every year.
And it gets worse for the UK version:
- Above £125,140 your personal allowance disappears completely
- Every pay rise from here is taxed at 45%
- Thresholds frozen until April 2031, so nothing improves with time
- Though auto-enrolment does quietly save for you, the one thing you don't get in other places
Here's the part most expats miss.
£82,214 a year invested at 9% for ten years is over £1,300,000.
That's the actual advantage. Not the salary. The gap.
Most people let the lifestyle absorb it instead.
Why do more people not utilise at least some of the additional cashflow?
#FinancialPlanning #Wealth #Investing
A $46/barrel freight and insurance bill does the work of a supply shock without losing a barrel. I take OPEC's point that fleet disruptions explain only part of it. The rest is a risk premium, and risk premia compress faster than they build.
🚨 OPEC: The real oil price shock isn't just crude. It's the cost of moving it.
Shipping crude oil from the Middle East to East Asia has become dramatically more expensive in just 9 months.
OPEC's November 2026 data reveals a staggering escalation in tanker freight and insurance costs.
📊 The numbers are alarming:
VLCC freight costs:
• January 2026: $3.18/barrel
• October 2026: $37.13/barrel
🔺 Nearly 12x higher
Marine insurance costs:
• January 2026: $0.06/barrel
• October 2026: $12.29/barrel
🔺 More than 200x higher
Combined freight + insurance:
• January: $3.24/barrel
• October: $49.42/barrel
That's an additional $46.18 per barrel in transportation and insurance costs.
⚠️ Freight and insurance now account for 30% of total crude oil costs on this route, compared with just 5% in January.
A sixfold increase in their share of total costs.
OPEC also highlights a critical point:
Current disruptions to the tanker fleet explain only a small fraction of the surge in shipping costs and insurance premiums.
These elevated costs are being transmitted through the value chain, increasing expenses for oil producers and consumers while adding inflationary pressure to the global economy.
Agreed. Bank failure is survivable. Currency depreciation is what destroys EM returns for sterling or dollar-based investors. I would take a frozen account over a 40% devaluation any day.
Rebasing is legitimate and overdue, Nigeria did the same in 2014. But I note the fine print: $210.7bn is a 2018 Ethiopian fiscal year figure, sitting alongside 2026 estimates for everyone else. I'd treat the 5th place ranking with some caution.
Deposits are the moat. In the frontier markets I follow, incumbent funding franchises are the hardest thing to dislodge. The asset share follows much later, if at all.
Highly relevant!
"Scenarios for future banking: implications for profitability, liquidity and solvency" by Christian Schmieder, Renzo Corrias, and Oliver Wünsch.
"Who will perform banking’s core functions a decade from now, and how will risks and profitability evolve? Our framework structures expert judgement rather than forecasts. It examines how technology, regulation and consumer preferences could reshape banking models, focusing on profitability, liquidity and solvency. We classify 9,000 banks across more than 150 jurisdictions into three traditional business models and three emerging technology-based models. Across four scenarios, traditional banks retain roughly three-quarters of banking-system assets, while emerging technology-based models capture 3–27%, compared with about 3.5% under the trend baseline at the ten-year horizon. However, the technology-driven business models could contest roughly 40% of the revenue pool, increasing earnings volatility as fee and platform revenues replace net interest income. Digitalisation may also accelerate deposit outflows, increase reliance on data driven risk assessment and weaken customer relationships. Regulation will influence the extent to which intermediation shifts between traditional banks and emerging bank models as well as non-bank providers. Solvency will depend on sustainable profitability, operational resilience and ecosystem dependencies. The framework identifies supervisory priorities that apply across all scenarios, alongside priorities and indicators specific to each scenario."
bis.org/publications/scenari…
These are 'official' procurement numbers. What would be interesting is what they mean for the external account. $100mn a cargo in hard currency against stretched reserves. Energy imports and a thin buffer do not mix well.
Slower Investor retweeted
Super strong earnings season
Music streaming to CNC machines to Forging cos.
Solid show all around @stockscansin
Slower Investor retweeted
Super interesting!
💻 WEBINAR: “Productivity and Inflation Dynamics,” Jenny Chan (Bank of England), joint work with Ludovica Ambrosino and Silvana Tenreyro.
⏲️ November 3, 16:00 – 17:00 CET
REGISTRATION HERE: forms.cloud.microsoft/r/iPv6…
Working Paper: bankofengland.co.uk/working-…
Abstract: "How does higher productivity affect inflation? Productivity shifts both supply and demand (through real incomes), and its effect on inflation depends on their relative magnitude and timing, as well as on the monetary policy response. We distinguish between a one-off level shock that increases productivity temporarily (relative to trend) and a persistent rise in productivity growth. A one-off, temporary increase in productivity lowers marginal costs and raises potential output, generating downward pressure on the price level. Once prices adjust however, inflation returns to target. By contrast, higher productivity growth raises expected permanent income and stimulates investment and consumption, increasing the natural real rate. Absent a tightening of monetary policy, inflationary pressures may emerge. Anticipation effects are central: if demand rises ahead of realised supply gains, inflation can increase despite higher productive capacity. In an open economy, the sectoral incidence of the shock also determines the impact on inflation. In summary, the inflationary consequences of productivity gains are a priori ambiguous and depend on the balance and timing of demand and supply responses, the composition of demand, and crucially, the monetary policy response."
REGISTRATION HERE: forms.cloud.microsoft/r/iPv6…
Trust the transit data, not the offers. PortWatch calls stayed well below the threshold through every announced reopening so far. I'd price it at 7% too.
7% chance Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of year.
poly.market/uDq7KhH
Transited Hongqiao a few times - plane to train in under 30 minutes, genuinely seamless. The open question is capex recovery. Most Chinese HSR lines outside the main coastal corridors don't cover their debt service.
China is building the kind of transit hub most countries only draw in pitch decks.
Shanghai is stitching its airport and high-speed rail into one building — step off a plane, step onto a bullet train, same roof. Billed as the country's first "air-rail" hub.
The West is still debating whether HSR is even "worth it." China just merged the airport into it.
Real risk, and it should be priced. But markets price Gulf risk uniformly across structurally dissimilar states. Liquidity released within days, markets reopened in two. That divergence is what I'd want a board to model.
The lines between military and civilian use have fundamentally blurred. How should modern companies think about this new world of warfare? How should they evaluate risk when choosing whether to assist in a conflict?
In a new report, @CSISdefense experts designed a decision guide for companies that find themselves lost in the fog of conflict.
Learn more: bit.ly/4jDl8vr
I won't opine on the diplomacy itself. But I do track how the risk got priced: uniformly across the region at first, then recovered very unevenly. Peg held, ratings held, equities reopened within days. That dispersion is the more useful signal.
"A comprehensive Iran deal is not feasible today. A Gulf-brokered outcome on the Strait of Hormuz is. In fact, it may be the only way to stop a mutually hurting stalemate that is poised to last years and cause mounting damage to global markets," write @AllisonMinor_ and Nate Swanson in @ForeignAffairs.
Read: bit.ly/4zqatti
