Arin

Fable 5.2 is reaching levels of slop we didn't know were possible

Wow. $SOXL has fully diverged from compute pricing. Used to move together somewhat but there's been some serious FUD in the past month.

Ok, $CRWV is now trading under $45. Reminder that they signed a $1 BILLION equity agreement with Jane Street at $109.00 per share earlier this year. They also have large compute contracts with Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc. Who's going down if they keep sliding? Go check it out: compute.arinjaff.com

$CRWV and $NBIS both report earnings next week. They've both been cut roughly in HALF in the past month, but they’re fundamentally different businesses financially: • ~98% of CoreWeave’s revenue is take-or-pay on ~5-year contracts. Only about half of Nebius’s is long-term; the rest reprices within 1–3 years, plus their spot market. • On ~70% of Nebius’s Q2 deals, customers prepaid 50–60% of capex. CoreWeave’s prepayments run 15–25% of contract value. • On five-year GPU loans, CoreWeave’s latest priced at SOFR+5.50%. Nebius’s: SOFR+2.50%. CoreWeave carries more financing risk, but has over a GIGAWATT more running than Nebius (1.5 GW vs. ~0.25 GW). Nebius is behind on power, but its balance sheet is more...balanced. Take your pick. Battle of the neoclouds is happening next week!