Niv Goren

theres a way to outsamrt those who outsmart

$RSP / $SPY back to levels where buying breakouts works

1/ I backtested 1,657 breakouts from 2008 to 2026. Only 24% made money. The best 50 made 94% of all the profit. So I went through all 50, one by one 🧵

Many breakouts traders talk about breadth - when the index is up but most stocks aren't breakouts fail. So I backtested it with actual numbers. This is what I found: • RSP/SPY down in 20 days → breakouts lost money • when 80% or more of S&P500 stocks above 50sma -breakouts don't work. • when 80% or more of S&P500 stocks above 50 sma - breakouts don't work. unusualbreakouts.com/learn/f…

Stanley Druckenmiller is famous for saying that earnings move individual stocks, but liquidity moves the market. I listened to many of his public speeches and came out with a macro score that represents his views. His macro score took my b/o strategy backtest from 22% to 33% CAGR. But only on top of individual stock fundementals. What macro parameters have an edge? 1. Financial conditions - 3-month change in the dollar, the 10-year yield, oil, credit spreads (HYG vs IEF) and the S&P. Each one moving the wrong way costs points. 2. Excess liquidity - M2 money supply growth minus industrial production growth. Money growing faster than the economy spills into assets. 3. The Fed - A rate cut in the last 6 months scores 3. A recent hike scores 0. QE adds, QT subtracts. 4. Companies and sector cycle - Fixed at neutral. Reading earnings calls point-in-time wasn't possible, so they never move the score. Full research with backtest results: unusualbreakouts.com/learn/f…

Never short before the teleport candle, only after $BIYA

I scored 1,837 breakouts with Peter Lynch's valuation checks, using only SEC filings that existed before each trade. Max drawdown went from −38% to −19%. Return kept: 20% CAGR vs 23%. The cheapest stocks were the worst breakouts. Here's the full research: unusualbreakouts.com/learn/f…

Jev allowed me to add the significant news that move momentum stocks so you can understand if theres anything behind the move. And at effectively no cost compared to claude api.

With crypto running, added a crypto section to unusualbreakouts.com so you can easily find data backed momentum candidates

I ran a test for the Wheel strategy similar to what ravenloft is doing here: kinfo.com/portfolio/91159/pr… The realized pnl curve looks really good due to all the premium collected (grey curve) but the assigned spot is what's killing the account (green curve). What am I missing?

3rd time in MRNA for the EP continuation after that high tight flag. I am a large caps trader now.

FML

$MRNA second trade on that EP continuation

ok I think I tought claude how to predict dilution $VCIG

$MRNA claude told me this was very good news

The perfect storm $FGI

Algo bought $LASR today as a momentum breakout trade. One of my biggest fomos since Dec 2025 where I had a signal but didnt enter

Anyone from Trillium Trading that follows me here can tell me why you guys did 4.4k requests on my website unusualbreakouts.com for the past 24 hours? Let me know I will give your use access to my API

Algo bought some $SPHR today with appearant relative strength against the market