principally permacultural
bay area/new orleans
Joined March 2015
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thizzical ✌︎ therapist retweeted
I've crunched the latest Nov numbers, and nothing has changed regarding the anticipated effects of this year's extreme El Niño event in California. There remains very strong evidence that the odds are heavily tilted toward an unusually wet, or perhaps even extremely wet, winter.
ALT Three maps show ECMWF’s January–March 2027 precipitation forecast across the northeastern Pacific and western North America: the ensemble’s 20th percentile, mean, and 80th percentile. Blue indicates above-average precipitation, brown below average, and white near average, relative to the model’s 1993–2016 baseline. Much of California remains wetter than average even at the 20th percentile. The mean shows a pronounced wet signal across California and the Southwest; the 80th percentile reaches or exceeds 250% of average in parts of this region. Forecast initialized November 1, 2026.
thizzical ✌︎ therapist retweeted
Due to the significant nature of the upcoming storm in NorCal and Central California. I've issued my first storm product of the season, and it is now fully operational.
A storm warning is now going to take effect beginning 12Z Friday for the northwest California coast due to heavy rainfall, strong winds, and very large breaking waves. On the other hand, a Level 1 storm risk is being highlighted for the SF metro area and Sacramento Valley. A Level 2 storm risk is for extreme northern California, the Sierra Mountains, and the Big Sur coast.
NOTE:
This is not an "OFFICIAL" NWS product; please seek official information. This product is handcrafted and developed by me and highlights a reasonable severity level of Pacific storms specifically for California. But please note that NOT all criteria are needed; for example, SFO is in a storm advisory because rain amounts will be under 1.25 in and wind gusts under 45 mph, but no flooding from heavy rain is expected at this time so this is wind & heavy rain driven risk.
In Fort Bragg, CA, there's a high risk, meaning rain amounts are forecasted to reach 1.75 in or greater, with wind gusts greater than 45 but not exceeding 60 mph and flooding likely.
thizzical ✌︎ therapist retweeted
Confidence continues to grow surrounding a wet, and possibly very wet, period developing in CA (especially NorCal) by Friday. While a wide range of outcomes is possible, more than a few ensemble members are depicting quite impressive rainfall for Nov.
So...things are ramping up!
ALT Meteogram depicting predicted precipitation at a point near San Francisco, CA over the next 14 days from each member of the ECMWF ensemble. The average 14-day precipitation is around 4.6 inches (which is a lot for 2 weeks in November!), and the range is from 2.7 to 9.6 inches across the model members.
thizzical ✌︎ therapist retweeted
imagine a universe where portugal got to california before spain and we had lã do rei instead of lana del rey
thizzical ✌︎ therapist retweeted
Shawty like "absinthe is a liquer made of wormwood and anise" and I'm tryna liq-huer and put my worm wood in her anise
thizzical ✌︎ therapist retweeted
Ocean waters off San Diego County are nearly as warm as those off Cape Canaveral, Florida, at 75°F (24°C).
That's nearly 11°F (6°C) above normal, instead of the rapid cooling November usually brings.
El Niño is the main culprit.
thizzical ✌︎ therapist retweeted
"Are Cajuns Southerners?" - the greatest thread in the history of forums, locked by a moderator after 12,239 pages of heated debate,
thizzical ✌︎ therapist retweeted
The biggest ideological divide is not between women and men, or between those who went to college and those who didn't.
It's between renters and owners.
thizzical ✌︎ therapist retweeted
California is experiencing one of the most extraordinary marine heatwaves in it's history. Water temperatures off Santa Barbara reached nearly 75°F today, 12°F above normal. Off San Diego County, temperatures reached above 77°F in the past week.
From the Bay Area to San Diego, coastal waters are running 6–12°F above normal. Category 5, or “beyond extreme,” marine heatwave conditions are occurring along virtually the entire Southern California coast.
Farther north, temperatures off Monterey have reached 68°F and 67°F off Half Moon Bay.
This exceptional warmth could have major consequences for marine life and could help enhance storms this winter.
thizzical ✌︎ therapist retweeted
Today's US extreme temperatures in the lower 48 US States are both found in California
93F El Monte
12F Mammoth Lakes
There is a total lack of extreme cold in the Northern States, so high elevations of Sierra Nevada are favoured,since the stable atmospheric conditions and the strong differences of temperatures in altitudes and between day and night.
We don't expect changes for few more days:
Very warm week in The SW deserts. (low/mid 90s)
thizzical ✌︎ therapist retweeted
Передача знамени парижских коммунаров московским рабочим на Ходынке в Москве, 1924
thizzical ✌︎ therapist retweeted
We got a really fantastic new paper from Gino Caspari and team confirming that the ancient Scythians were using cannabis for its psychoactive properties. Herodotus implied it and archaeologists have found seeds, but not hard physical evidence. They even found human hair with THC!
thizzical ✌︎ therapist retweeted
For a century before steam, ships went where the wind let them. This video uses the CLIWOC database: more than 250,000 noon positions copied from Dutch, British, Spanish and French ships' logbooks between 1750 and 1855. First every voyage is folded into a single year, so the fleets move with the seasons. Then the tracks build up into the full century.
The routes are wind routes. Ships bound for the Cape swung far west towards Brazil to get round the calms and the southeast trade winds, then ran east before the westerlies. Dutch ships for Batavia followed the Brouwer route through the Roaring Forties before turning north to Java. British ships fill the Indian Ocean on their way to India and China, and Spanish ships head for the Río de la Plata and the Caribbean.
