Daave “3 and 30” Tepper (@institLP) profile picture

top-3 endowment investor. the world is a productive asset. mostly bullish, always prepared. tyj. disclaimer: I do not own an NFL team.

Whatever’s working
Joined October 2021
Photo by Daave “3 and 30” Tepper (@institLP)Photo by Daave “3 and 30” Tepper (@institLP)Photo by Daave “3 and 30” Tepper (@institLP)Photo by Daave “3 and 30” Tepper (@institLP)Photo by Daave “3 and 30” Tepper (@institLP)Photo by Daave “3 and 30” Tepper (@institLP)Photo by Daave “3 and 30” Tepper (@institLP)Photo by Daave “3 and 30” Tepper (@institLP)Photo by Daave “3 and 30” Tepper (@institLP)Photo by Daave “3 and 30” Tepper (@institLP)
dave tepper - hands down, GOATED investor the only investor the other greats admire and respect and would not dare disrespect he's also misunderstood... known as a great distressed investor, he's also a great macro investor... skates to where the puck is headed, full cycle
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Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
Bernstein expects CXMT capex to spike to US $35 bn. CXMT capex growth is $ACMR revenue growth…
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$meta instagram going after YouTube $goog with long form vide content was not on my 2026 bingo card The competitive dynamics of big tech are far more compelling than the megalomaniacs in big ai @benthompson what a time to be alive!
.@RichLightShed on the challenges for Alphabet's YouTube, which is facing increased competition for viewers watching on TV. cnb.cx/4ipzopk
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yall! stan druckenmiller just posted on x hyperliquid.
I am excited to be an investor in trade(xyz) as they partner with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States. As a market participant, I am looking forward to to using their innovative product to enhance my investment process.
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Hyperliquid. $hype
trade[XYZ] and ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, are joining forces to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States. In just over a year, our markets on Hyperliquid have surpassed $650 billion in volume. They provide continuous price discovery for stocks, indices, and commodities, and have become trusted reference points for retail and institutions alike when traditional markets are closed. Much of the world trades them. Until now, Americans could only watch. We intend to change that. Subject to CFTC approval, trade[XYZ] and ICE plan to establish a new, dedicated U.S. market, with novel exchange and clearing infrastructure built on Hyperliquid. Planned contracts span equities, indices, commodities, FX, and crypto, with access through participating brokers and platforms. We’ll share more on products, eligibility, and timing as approvals progress. ICE brings more than 25 years of experience operating regulated markets, clearing, and managing risk. trade[XYZ] brings the product development, market design, and technology behind the most liquid and robust markets on Hyperliquid. Innovation and the protections of U.S. regulation shouldn’t be a trade-off. Together, we plan to prove it. ICE is making a strategic investment in trade[XYZ] and joins us in building towards the future of Hyperliquid. A small group of market luminaries is joining as well, beginning with Stan Druckenmiller. For more than four decades, few investors have anticipated the great turns in markets as often as Stan. We’re proud to have him with us for the next one. We’re building the U.S. market in parallel with our existing HIP-3 markets, which we’ll continue to expand and innovate on. We expect both to flourish. They each have a long road map ahead, from new asset classes to new ways to trade them. To the Hyperliquid community, whether you were here before us or came because of us, thank you. You took a chance on new markets and you made them matter. You’ll forever be a part of this story. Anything. Anytime. On ICE[XYZ].
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for those talking about panel level packaging today
ACMR “ECP” segment includes equipment for panel-level packaging and grew 204% YoY (!!) to represent 36% (!!) of company revenue. That’s the kind of growth and materiality that shifts narrative and multiples. $acmr $amat
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$acmr will still go down because it’s a loser stock
“CXMT has said they want to basically add an entire Samsung’s worth of supply in 18 months. They want to go from No. 6 in the market to No. 1. It’s insane how much supply is coming online in 2027.” - Paul Kedrosky, via Grant’s Interest Rate Observer
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bubble boi wishes he got dragged out with Leo If true fk that guy
UPDATE: Bubble boi is likely in custody
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Anyone know how often $Goog misses on the search estimates $msft crushed in azure these are not the same $amzn
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here we go. this is gorgeous. the money shot. last 10 years of p/e-to-LTEG ratio. mag 6. removed $tsla cause fk those guys they screw up the charts. $nvda gets no respect for the LTEG - market just doesn't believe it. in fact, PEG of 0.28 hasn't been this low since late 2023. bullish. $aapl getting way too much respect for it's LTEG. in fact, could argue the market is expressing a hidden view that their hardware capabilities and underinvestment in AI is the end state for what makes a great tech company in the future. great hardware moat, exploitation of the AI investments made by others. but regardless, that's a hefty premium to pay. the rest look objectively "reasonable" $amzn is the biggest outlier, with the fastest LTEG (ex nvidia) and the lowest PEG
Replying to @institLP
That ETF flow point makes a lot of sense — at this size it's hard for the market to price each name on its own merits.
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lots of mispricing in the mag 7. $amzn and $nvda look cheap if LTEG is accurate. market doesn't believe (or can't bring enough capital). would say market cap is a limiter to effectively pricing the names, or the ETF flows distort idiosyncratic pricing... then again market seems to effectively price $aapl kind of bulled up for $amzn this week
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"analyst projections gotta come up" $ACMR just beat Q3'36 revenue estimates by 20% stock flat. better than down but damn no credit for greatness.
this is a degenerates portfolio. but an observation on $ACMR revenue. shanghai sub backlog came out today. 17bn RMB. analyst projections gotta come up. jpm at $110 PT AND gs at $166 both have with 2027P rev = $1.67bn (25% below '27 implied on new backlog datapoint) DYOR higher.
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it's the year 2036, and acmr is still at $54 pps :)
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assume we’ll get some upgrades tomorrow $iclr even a slow grower cro is catching a demand wave Anyone have a strong take on medpace $medp
$ICLR -Cowen raises ICON target to $197 from $164 Buy -Mizuho raises target to $190 from $180 Outperform -BMO raises target to $187 from $160 Outperform -Baird raises target to $186 from $168 Outperform -RBC raises target to $185 from $126 Upgrades to Outperform from Sector Perform -Barclays raises target to $175 from $160 = Weight -Citi raises target to $165 from $140 Neutral -Bank of America raises target to $150 from $125 Underperform -JPMorgan raises target to $135 from $130 Neutral
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took down bit of tech risk just now long trade was $SOXL - out (10 points) $stx - cut half (3 points) great as anthropic numbers were / are market doesn't believe earnings are sustainable can't fight the tape
deployed a ton of cash on a semis/wfe trade anthropic capital efficiency isn't as bad as feared $crwv / $nbis may have found a near term bottom - did not add either of these... narrative can shift fast... trading call only
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$stx entry was may 2025 at $117 pps. was a big position. my largest contributor of the ai cycle to date. was a fun ride, could have definitely sold the top better. what went right: - fundamental thesis was a slam dunk; price and exabyte growth as ai dc growth and training came to pass - held through the vols what went wrong: - sold half too early before the blow off rip higher - average exit price about 40% off the peak thanks for laughs seagate and best of luck HDD frens net short $wdc but will be covering imminently
$STX handling the shorts Market position too hot to handle
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good thread
1/16 the ai industry is making an unusual bet: buy compute for years, sell intelligence by the token. banks, commodity merchants, airlines, utilities and cloud providers each explain a different part of the risk.
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semis do look a bit cheap here
*D.A. DAVIDSON UPGRADES BROADCOM TO BUY ON AI IPO CATALYSTS & UNJUSTIFIED VALUATION DISCOUNT D.A. Davidson upgraded Broadcom $AVGO +3% to Buy from Neutral, raising its price target to $400 from $350. Gil Luria highlighted that Broadcom's valuation trading at just 16x 2027 estimated EPS effectively prices in a near zero probability of successful public market debuts for core AI lab customers like Anthropic and OpenAI. Luria expects Anthropic's upcoming IPO to proceed with OpenAI potentially following in 2027, unlocking substantial fresh capital that will directly fund sustained multi-billion-dollar demand for Broadcom’s custom AI ASIC accelerators and high performance networking infrastructure.
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polling everywhere will have overstated republican turnout and voting It’s over but mostly over if trump in all his megalomania colludes with a blue legislature to move the country to the left
Republicans in Texas simply not showing up… Statewide early vote so far: 🔵Dem 35% (+2) 🔴Rep 33% 2022 at same point: 🔵Dem 29% 🔴Rep 42% (+13)
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people will find out the hard way that $1 trillion data center capex is free cash flow negative until it lights up, then it cash flows 20-40% p.a. by the time it does, another $1tn in the ground does the same and those xpus are suddenly doing $400bn - $800bn fcf p.a and the whole system is cash flow positive the big bet is whether the token demand is sustainable per whoever published it today - if we’re spending 0.1% of payroll cost on ai at $100bn annual spend run rate, we’ve only got to spend 0.5-1% for the whole thing to balance the biggest worry shouldn’t be demand but some algorithmic improvement that allows smaller models on local endpoints For me don’t think there’s much to worry about that anytime soon, but I will change my mind if something changes
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