CIO at FortyTwo Capital | Marathon Runner | Cyclist
Utrecht
Joined July 2009
- Tweets3.5K
- Following133
- Followers826
- Likes2.2K
Kan het pensioenfonds PFZW (Pensioenfonds Zorg en Welzijn) 60% van de kosten besparen is de vraag? Ik ben er samen met Fable 5.2 mee aan de slag gegaan.
Het pensioenbeheer maakt slechts 12% uit van de totale kosten. Dus wat mij betreft komt '88%' van de totale €1,3 miljard in aanmerking voor een schoonmaakbeurt. Let's dive in!
Wat blijkt, liefst 43% van de kosten komt voor rekening van private equity met een jaarlijks netto rendement van 3% tussen 2022-2025 versus 9,1% netto rendement voor aandelen. Ook over een langere periode doen aandelen het minstens 250 bps beter. Dit geld gaat grotendeels naar externe managers.
Kan dit pensioenfonds 60% besparen op de kosten? Die conclusie mag een ieder voor zichzelf trekken. Ik durf de conclusie wel te trekken dat deelnemers van dit soort pensioenfondsen nul profijt hebben van deze dure instellingen en dat de 'diversificatie' naar PE-fondsen een dure hobby van het management is.
Minstens 60%? Graag onderbouwing. Inclusief meenemen van taken als o.a. pensioenrechten administreren, premies verwerken, uitkeringen doen, deelnemers informeren, renterisico beheren, verschillende leeftijdscohorten bedienen en pensioenrisico's delen. En het risicoprofiel.
2
5
420
@beursanalist. Wellicht een leuke aangezien je laatste berichten ook over dit soort pensioenfondsen gingen.
141
Last week I said I'd take a proper look at $BRK.B before making up my mind. The work is done, and I'd genuinely like your pushback.
My sum-of-the-parts valuation (balance sheet 30 Sep 2026) comes to $445 per B share. At $571 the stock trades about 28% above that. Put differently: the market pays ~23x normalised earnings for the operating businesses, where I use ~15x on average.
The part I find most interesting is the bridge to Chris Bloomstran's valuation ($570 at year-end 2025). We largely agree on earnings power. The gap is mainly in two choices:
1. Float. I deduct the $178.5 bn in full; he treats it as equity. Together with deferred tax that is ~$106 per share.
2. Multiples. He pays ~19.8x for BNSF, BHE and MSR, I pay 15.6x. That's another ~$43.
With his treatment of float and tax but my multiples, I get ~$551. So whether Berkshire looks expensive depends more on how you view float than on the operating businesses.
What matters more in the end is how fast intrinsic value grows. The operating businesses grow slowly, so a lot rests on putting ~$357bn of cash to work at better returns. I realistically expect 8–9% a year from here. Fine, but a bit below what I'm looking for, so I'm considering trimming Berkshire with 20-40%.
In the coming week, I will devote quite some time to make up my mind about $BRK.B. It’s hard for me to criticise the company, as doing so feels like implicitly letting my role model Buffett down. But my gut feeling is giving me signals that Berkshire at $570 is quite richly valued. Especially since their more recent capital allocation decision (Oxychem, Pilot, Bending Spoons) are hard for me to get really excited about (in fact: perhaps the opposite is true). As always happy to hear pushback and/or input before doing the work. Will share the outcome when done of course.
Interesting take from @oost_marcel and exactly the reason why I’m long $ADYEN. Being a shareholder is no walk in the park as both communication and capital allocation can significantly improved. But I feel that the current valuation provides enough margin to absorb that impact.
@stripe 's last tender valued it at about 5.5x @Adyen 's market value, on only about 1.2x the payment volume 🤯
That valuation gap is hard to ignore. 159B vs. 29B.
Here are the numbers:
→ Stripe's private valuation rose ~74% in the year to February
→ Adyen trades at ~21x last year's EBITDA
→ Adyen's payment volume grew 30% in Q3
→ Stripe's Revenue suite is heading for a $1B annual run rate
And the comparison just got more interesting.
Adyen lowered its 2026 margin outlook as it keeps investing following the acquisitions of Talon One and Orb.
Its shares dropped ~13% on the day: bit.ly/4BA7KyG
But Adyen's payment volume growth has accelerated sharply:
From just 8% for full-year 2025 (dragged down by one large customer) to 30% in Q3.
Stripe, meanwhile, says it remains "robustly profitable" but doesn't disclose the number.
And that's an important difference.
Adyen gets judged by the public markets every quarter.
Stripe gets repriced through private tenders.
Both are investing heavily.
Both are growing.
But one is currently valued at roughly 5.5x the other.
Is that gap justified?
Want a closer look at how Stripe and Adyen really compare? 👉 Read my full deep dive into their latest financial results, growth, profitability, and valuations here: lnkd.in/dhjntqXp
1
3
1,403
In the coming week, I will devote quite some time to make up my mind about $BRK.B. It’s hard for me to criticise the company, as doing so feels like implicitly letting my role model Buffett down. But my gut feeling is giving me signals that Berkshire at $570 is quite richly valued. Especially since their more recent capital allocation decision (Oxychem, Pilot, Bending Spoons) are hard for me to get really excited about (in fact: perhaps the opposite is true). As always happy to hear pushback and/or input before doing the work. Will share the outcome when done of course.
Jan Klein Poelhuis retweeted
Video for today
🤖 Made with AI
$FFH.TO delivered another strong quarter. Despire the softening market, the insurance business is doing well. And with the deals announced during Q3, Fairfax is laying the ground work to continue its stellar compounding trajectory going forward. Well done Prem and team!
Painful. Would be great to see Mr. Knot as president of the ECB. I think he would do a terrific job as calm, patient, rational and above all decent man.
3
471
Quite a decent quarter for $MKL in which both the insurance and non-insurance segments performed well. In addition, Markel significantly reduced the tail risk from the reinsurance segment (albeit against a cost). All in all, I'm optimistic that Markel is doing the right things!
Jan Klein Poelhuis retweeted
Aercap $AER 3Q'26
Sustained outperformance
Very strong profitability, gain on sales and stock buybacks
$125 adj. BVPS, $123 unadjusted.
22% adj. ROE, 20% as reported.
1.2x price / book, 9.5x "core" EPS
Confirming >$20 EPS in 2026 Adj.
Leverage only 2.0x
Tons of capacity for order deliveries, m&a or plane purchases
Keep up the great work Gus and team!
Aercap $AER 2Q'26
Continued profitability, stock buybacks and new orders.
$119 adj. BVPS, $117 unadjusted.
18% adj. ROE, 16% as reported.
Likely going to earn >$20 EPS in '26
Adj. Leverage only 2.05x...? Lots of room for m&a or purchases.
Keep up the great work Gus and team!
I think @AlbertJellema makes a couple of very fair points. Trust is severely impacted by the way the company communicates with its shareholders. Also, the leadership changes do raise some eyebrows to say the least. Difficult one $ADYEN
Same mistake as 2023. $ADYEN raises costs, drops its 2028 margin target and tells shareholders to wait until February for answers. You don’t ask for a blank cheque and give nothing back. Trust: zero. Sold half my position today at €850 (purchased at €909). My full take 👇youtu.be/Lh5p001MU8A?si=7mWv…
1
22
2,936
Jan Klein Poelhuis retweeted
Am I understanding this correctly?
1/ Anthropic $ANT raises substantial amounts of cash by selling preferred shares to investors such as Amazon $AMZN and Google $GOOGL (those two bought 27% of the preferred shares issued since the start of the year).
2/ These same investors have agreed to provide a significant portion of the equipment in exchange for convertible notes with payment-in-kind interest (Broadcom’s $AVGO notes account for more than 20% of Anthropic’s total commitments).
3/ Anthropic uses the proceeds from preferred share issuance and the notes to pay vendors that hold its convertible preferred shares and notes.
4/ The vendors convert their preferred shares and notes into common stock and sell it on the market for cash.
5/ Ultimately, cloud providers and chip suppliers finance the infrastructure and assume the risk of its future returns. At the IPO, that risk will transfer to public shareholders.
Or am I missing something?
I like the way @andrewcoye went about it and would almost say: 'nothing to add'. It's been over 2 years since I added to my $BRK.B position and sold some in March 2025. The laws of gravity are getting to Berkshire. That said, never bet against Berkshire in tough times!
Interested in Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B $BRK.A as it reaches all time highs? I've recently updated IVPS to provide a comprehensive overview of America's most valuable conglomerate:
intrinsicvaluepershare.com
Appreciate any feedback and interest!
1
6
990
Jan Klein Poelhuis retweeted
$SPCX just ended the quarter with $14.6B in revenue or $58B annualized - meaning - to meet the low range of Elon’s prediction, ARR would have 10X in the next year, and nearly 20X at the high end.
Elon is misleading investors with something that has zero possibility is happening. This is illegal.
Issuing guidance that management knows is impossible to hit is illegal under federal securities laws, specifically Section 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and SEC Rule 10b-5.
Elon Musk says he sees $SPCX annual recurring revenue to land between $500 billion and $1 trillion by the end of 2027.
Jan Klein Poelhuis retweeted
I now have absolutely no doubt that Donald Trump has major mental decline.
Just think for one minute if Joe Biden had waved into the abyss like Trump just did here. Imagine what Fox News would be saying.
There is absolutely no rational explanation for this that I can see. How about you?
Congrats on this master piece! For those we don’t know (yet): @VikingVan100 is the 🐐of Fairfax knowledge. Moreover, he is a very generous human being that shares all his knowledge for free! Thank you!
Five months’ work. A new book on Fairfax. How did a lost decade give way to a compounding machine—and why might the market be missing the opportunity? The business, the decisions and the lessons for investors. Click the link for a free PDF. $FFH.TO $FRFHF
thecobf.com/forum/topic/2193…
17
1,370
Jan Klein Poelhuis retweeted
Henk scheldt wat te veel, maar hij heeft wel gelijk ⬇️
