VC @Deviationcap, formerly @rtpvc, @OpenView & Head of Research at @MassChallenge. talking startups or complaining about Boston sports

New York, NY
Joined July 2011
Joe Botsch retweeted
It’s a beautiful day to be building America. @BedrockRobotics
Today we’re announcing a $600M Series C, co-led by @CapitalG and @emergencecap, to bring fully autonomous machines to more job sites across the U.S. We want autonomous equipment to become beautifully unremarkable, as ordinary on a job site as GPS or grade control.
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We’re going to see a bunch of neolab to neocloud pivots next year
Heard from a neolab friend: “Even if we fail to train the best model, we locked in GPU capacity early. H100/B200/B300 rental prices have since gone up 2–3x. We can just resell the compute and print money.” OK, so that’s the business model.
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There seems to be widespread understanding that the inference market is huge & growing but more limited understanding of how technically challenging it is to support low-latency, highly reliable inference at scale. Go rebuild k8s in a weekend; hope your coding agent had its coffee.
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Joe Botsch retweeted
This is serious. I just saw with my very own eyes that even non-technical people can exploit CVEs like PHP2Shell using certain AI models and I am actually frightened. Once you figure it out, it is downright trivial to do. The digital infrastructure of the world is at risk.
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Joe Botsch retweeted
One of these does >$600m in EBITDA annually and holds dominant market share The other is a neocloud
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Joe Botsch retweeted
Inception just dropped Mercury 3, a model 4-8x faster than Luna / Haiku for the same price and benchmark performance. In real world use, OpenRouter shows that it’s effectively 2-4x faster and 2-4x cheaper effective price. The time for diffusion language models is finally here!
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Joe Botsch retweeted
Notion AI lead @sarahmsachs argues that a lot of what runs on GPUs today should actually run on CPUs: "We have a strong perspective at Notion that a lot of things should be served on CPU that are served on GPU. There’s a lot of benefit and determinism in executed code." "Agents don’t need LLMs to reinvent that process every time, and that’s super token exhaustive, it’s super slow, and there’s no observability or determinism in it." "Giving the agent a local file system to store local thoughts, to write short Python scripts, that’s really important when there’s so much information. That has been probably one of the most important tools outside of edit and search that our internal agents rely on." @NotionHQ
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Joe Botsch retweeted
Oxide co-founder @bcantrill believes every VC wants to be contrarian, but most get cold feet when an actual contrarian bet is staring them in the face. "Everybody loves contrarian. But no one actually wants a zero."
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Adventure Capital
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Joe Botsch retweeted
I animated the web of AI financing.
Here it is: the latest, expanded AI circular financing chart
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barista: that'll be $6.39 VC: **frowning** that can't be right... barista: **sighs** that'll be $2,332.35 ARR VC: **smiling** yes!
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Joe Botsch retweeted
What if AI models have just reached commodity status? In early 2025, we debated whether labs would become the airlines of the AI industry : high cost, low margin businesses with undifferentiated products. What’s the strategy in this environment?
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Why are memory and chip interconnects getting so much attention in AI hardware? Faster GPUs still matter, but AI performance is increasingly about how much data you can keep close to the compute, and how quickly you can move it there. Text generation is a good example. Take NVIDIA’s H100 SXM. It can theoretically do about 989 trillion operations per second for dense BF16 tensor math. It also has 80 GB of memory with about 3.35 TB/s of memory bandwidth. Now take Llama 3.1 70B. Its roughly 70.6 billion weights occupy about 141 GB in BF16, before accounting for the other memory needed to run the model. So you already need multiple 80 GB H100s just to hold it. When a dense model generates a token, it has to use essentially all those weights. The dominant operations are roughly a multiplication and addition per weight. That creates an interesting problem: enormous amounts of data movement for relatively little computation per byte. Imagine an incredibly fast worker doing calculations from number cards arriving on a conveyor belt. If the worker finishes each calculation before the next numbers arrive, giving them a faster calculator doesn’t accomplish much. The bottleneck is the belt. GPU memory bandwidth can play the role of that belt. In my simplified roofline calculation, generating tokens for one conversation can use only about 0.4% of the H100’s peak BF16 math throughput. Batch 64 conversations together and the theoretical ceiling rises to roughly 11%. Those aren’t benchmark results. They depend on assumptions including BF16, an 8K context and how the model is split across GPUs. But the intuition matters. Batching doesn’t make memory faster. It lets the GPU reuse each weight across many conversations, doing more useful math for every byte moved. And low math utilization doesn’t mean the GPU is idle. The memory system can be extremely busy while the calculating units wait for data. This also explains why reading a prompt and generating an answer behave differently. Prompt processing can work on many tokens together and reuse weights heavily, making it more compute-intensive. Token generation is sequential within each conversation and, especially at smaller batch sizes, is often much more constrained by memory bandwidth. Then add agents. A coding agent might ask a model for a fix, edit files, compile code, run tests, inspect the result and call the model again. The model inference may run on GPUs, while compilation, tests and orchestration run mostly on CPUs. Storage, networks and external services introduce still more bottlenecks. Same “AI,” very different hardware problems. Memory capacity determines how much data fits. Memory bandwidth determines how quickly it moves. Interconnects determine how efficiently work and data move between chips. CPUs handle much of the surrounding general-purpose work. And GPUs and other accelerators provide enormous amounts of specialized computation. This is why peak FLOPS alone tell you surprisingly little about how fast or economical an AI system will be. My bet is that moving, storing, and reusing data will shape the next decade of AI hardware as much as doing more math. If you’re building or buying AI infrastructure, the question is: where would the next dollar spent on hardware actually make the system faster?
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Joe Botsch retweeted
the modern physical AI & robotics data stack in 2026: from the sensor bus to the agent loop: bus & transport layer: - CAN bus, EtherCAT, and raw serial (microsecond deadlines, no room for dropped frames) - ROS 2 and Zenoh for inter-process comms (DDS discovery headaches included) - vendor SDKs and proprietary camera drivers (mostly custom C++ wrappers) edge storage & buffering: - MCAP logging direct to NVMe (lossless high-frequency topic capture) - circular ring buffers in RAM for fault-triggered dumps (black-box incident recording) - local DuckDB or SQLite for state indexing and metadata tracking edge-to-cloud sync: - spotty cellular and Starlink backhaul (depot offload when you're lucky) - adaptive packet prioritization and telemetry streaming (Alloy, custom backhaul) - delta uploads and cellular bandwidth throttling query & observability layer: - temporal alignment across async sensors (lidar, IMU, camera timestamps that never match) - 3D visual playback and spatial inspection (Alloy, RViz, Foxglove, Rerun) - mission indexing and multimodal telemetry search across ROS 2 / CAN (Alloy) replay & closed-loop eval: - headless Isaac Sim and MuJoCo clusters running in CI - resim workflows replaying exact production bags against new policies - automated regression suites catching regressions before flashing hardware fleet memory & agent triage: - cross-fleet anomaly clustering across production runs - automated root-cause analysis and incident triage (Alloy) - shared fault signatures and fleet-wide failure libraries most teams spend most of their engineering headcount reinventing this data pipeline instead of shipping autonomy. the winners in physical AI won't just have better models. they will have the infrastructure to actually feed them.
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🗣️ HIGHLIGHT: Efton Chism Game Winning Touchdown in Buffalo. Bob Socci and Scott Zolak with the call on the Patriots Radio Network 🏈 📸 : Imagn Images #patriots #bills #nfl #football
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Joe Botsch retweeted
it's illegal for you to ask me that
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ASIC Shipments to Surpass GPUs in 2027 DIGITIMES expects ASIC shipments to surpass GPUs in 2027, driven by $GOOG, $AMZN, and Huawei, while Nvidia and Google emerge as the two dominant forces in high-end AI accelerators As $TSM, $ASX, and Amkor expand advanced packaging capacity, the main supply constraints are shifting toward ABF substrates, T-glass, high-layer-count PCBs, and HBM ABF substrates and T-glass are expected to remain in shortage through 2027–2028, prompting major capacity expansions from Ibiden, Unimicron, Kinsus, SEMCO, Shinko, Nittobo, and others PCB requirements are also becoming far more demanding, with AI server boards moving from 12–20 layers toward 40–50 layers, while new capacity can take 2–3 years to build and qualify The result is a supply-chain race in which AI accelerator companies increasingly need to secure capacity early, qualify new suppliers, or directly invest in their supply chains
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I used AI to explain the AI Doomer drama, with Lord of the Rings and kittens.
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How do you know a new robot policy is ready for production? At Walden, we evaluate task success alongside autonomy, interventions, speed and transfer. On Thursday, Adrien Gaidon joins @theCUBE live from @CoreWeave’s Fully Connected. Tune in for a discussion of the training and evaluation loop behind our general-purpose robots, and what we’re learning in manufacturing. Tune in Oct 1 at 2pm PT / 5pm ET for Adrien’s technical session, then 4pm PT / 7pm ET for his live interview on theCUBE: thecube.net/events/coreweave…
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