State and local tax policy and strategy. Advocate for thoughtful tax policy that fosters growth. Girl & dog dad, husband, @OregonState alum.
Portland, Oregon
Joined August 2012
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In our latest article in @TaxNotes, Nikki Dobay and I explore Oregon's supermajority requirement for legislative tax increases. While the courts have whittled away the rule, some in the legislature are seeking ways to eviscerate the voter-approved control. peakpolicy.com/whittling-ore…
Jeff Newgard retweeted
"in key areas, Mr. Trump repeated Mr. Biden’s mistake and misread his mandate" @JohnCornyn
Last night, Republicans lost the U.S. House, the U.S. Senate, and my home state of Texas, a conservative cornerstone for more than three decades, because our party forgot the basic rules of coalition politics:
1. Add, don’t subtract
2. Be likeable
3. Do what you promised
4. Character & integrity still matter
Time to turn the page and rebuild. Read my full thoughts in the @WSJ: wsj.com/opinion/republicans-…
Campaigns that use the initiative process as a bargaining chip generally understand the chip is only valuable if everyone believes the threat is real.
Some thoughts on Oregon's wealth tax ballot initiative filed earlier this month. peakpolicy.com/lousy-leverag…
Just wait until these people find out they pay state and local income taxes on income they earned elsewhere.
“I’m old. I’ve paid my home off,” said Ray Warner, a 72-year-old Akron resident. “Why would I pay property tax?”
Across the country, homeowners are asking the same question and revolting against property taxes at a scale not seen in a half century.
politico.com/news/magazine/2…
Populism makes for powerful campaign messaging, but a tax that fits on a bumper sticker is almost never a tax that works. Portland's "Fair Share Tax" turns an eccentric tax gimmick into a ticking legal time bomb with the city's general fund on the line. peakpolicy.com/when-portland…
Jeff Newgard retweeted
New with @GS_Watson: Bonus depreciation is not a subsidy. Fixing the tax treatment of investment with expensing doesn't mean firms invest in the US because of a tax deduction; it means that the tax code no longer creates a barrier for marginal investment.
Jeff Newgard retweeted
These may be winning campaign bills for Dems in some places but I think the "no tax on" label is misplaced.
Full expensing for machinery/equipment is no less or more "no tax on data centers" than it is "no tax on construction" or "no tax on manufacturing." It's a neutral policy!
No more “no tax on data centers”
politico.com/live-updates/20…
Jeff Newgard retweeted
Next in my series on AI and data center taxes, I untangle tax policies that look like subsidies to some, but aren't, and those that are actual subsidies and should be repealed.
adamnmichel.substack.com/p/n…
Jeff Newgard retweeted
30 years ago, policymakers considered a "bit tax" framed as 1 cent per 100 emails. Against today's internet use, that's an impossible $780,000 per household.
With a bit tax, the internet would have developed quite differently. A lesson for AI taxes.
thesaltroad.net/p/what-if-we…
Jeff Newgard retweeted
China is secretly fueling America's data center rage axios.com/2026/08/28/china-a…
Jeff Newgard retweeted
Call it the backlash to the backlash—Unions and building trades say they will oppose candidates attacking data centers, putting Democrats and other long-term allies in a pickle.
W/ @lindsayaellis:
wsj.com/economy/jobs/blue-co…
At a time when most other states are experiencing real revenue growth, Oregon's growth is only nominally up — a stability manufactured by wage inflation and taxes lawmakers raised during the short session. peakpolicy.com/p/2f38aece-8f…
Jeff Newgard retweeted
On the data center moral panic. thedispatch.com/article/data…
Jeff Newgard retweeted
Please: before jumping on this populist bandwagon, examine the claim carefully.
A sales tax exemption for equipment purchases is not a tax break.
Sales taxes apply to final consumption, not inputs. This exemption puts datacenters on an equal footing with other investments.
Jeff Newgard retweeted
Its a common and effective talking point, but not true. Below is a comparison of the 2000 vs. 2026 federal budget. Tax cuts have totalled 2% of GDP (unrelated economic factors also reduced revenues). But spending has jumped 5.7% of GDP since 2000. Lots of blame to go around.
Jeff Newgard retweeted
Anatomy of a panic:
1) Small group of fact-challenged activists freak out over relatively harmless thing.
2) Everyone else sees them panicking, assumes it must be bad (but not sure why).
3) Politicians baffled by grassroots rebellion, but happy to jump on board in election year.
Jeff Newgard retweeted
Nearly 3 times as many people (44% vs 15%) say they'd support a nuclear power plant being built near where they live than a data center. That is insane.
Jeff Newgard retweeted
Data centers are the cleanest, least invasive large-scale industrial buildout of physical stuff that we've seen, and people still oppose it.
Good thing to remember when people whine about how "we don't build physical stuff in America anymore."
Jeff Newgard retweeted
The anti-data center advocacy is a carbon copy playbook of the anti-fracking advocacy and twice as dumb. Swap out Kelce with Mark Ruffalo here in 2010 and it’s the same schtick all the way from the stupid Mason jar prop to the lies about drinking water and calls for a moratorium.
There was robust opposition to electrification in the early 1900s, with many people afraid and refusing to allow it in their homes. Like then, feelings toward data centers are narrow but not deep — deeply felt but poorly defined — which probably makes them not so salient.
We’ve got exclusive new polling on local data center development at @heatmap_news.
Over the past year, we’ve asked Americans whether they would support or oppose a data center being built near where they live.
We haven’t changed the wording. When we first polled the question a year ago, Americans were split 43-42 on support/oppose.
When we asked again in Feb, a bare majority opposed data centers.
Today, 75% of Americans say they would oppose a data center being built near where they live, and 61% said they would “strongly oppose” such a proposal.
It’s a swift, massive shift in US public opinion on a scale that I wouldn’t have once thought possible. More details, including the party ID & rural/urban breakdown, in my new story: heatmap.news/daily/data-cent…
