science, but mainly politics
Joined February 2011
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New piece I wrote on what I think would be a really bankroll-efficient strategy to farm the new volume rebate program on @Kalshi:
medium.com/kalshi/how-to-the…
if your local meteorologist tells you that there's a 40% chance of rain, and then it does rain, do we just throw our hands up and say there's no way to know whether or not the meteorologist's model worked?
On the other hand, was it a 55% chance of a good night? A 45% chance? Even an 80% chance? Impossible to gauge. The model guessed, but we have no way to know if it was right or not.
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who among us didn't have CO-03 as the tipping point district for house control
Democrats have had a generally great last 24 hours of news in unresolved House races, with the exception of Rep. Lauren Boebert's (R) race in #CO03. Not inconceivable she could end up barely putting Rs in the majority.
Underappreciated unlikely winner last night: @PredictIt's servers, which never (fully) crashed. In fact, trading was buttery smooth from like 9:30pm on despite a big flip underway.
Gonna miss the site :(
There were a lot of garbage polls, but the averages did a pretty reasonable job, and as a result the betting markets (which assumed polls were biased to democrats) got effectively pantsed by 538's model. (Unlike in 2018 where things were a draw or 2020 where markets won)
so anywhere between a great night for Democrats and a great night for Republicans cool
Our final Senate overview is out. We are changing our range of most likely outcomes to D+0 to R+3.
Read @JessicaTaylor's analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
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Generally speaking, Polymarket has been more friendly to Dems than PredictIt (see below). An interesting dynamic: one whale owns the majority of the outstanding Dem Senate shares (200k+) and, as he's also the main LP, he can't easily dump them.
polymarketwhales.info/market…
Today we're launching midterms.co, the ultimate hub for Midterms forecasts.
It's powered by *44* prediction markets on @PolymarketHQ that generate accurate odds in real-time.
Here's what the markets are telling us. Spoiler: Dems may be in for a rude awakening 🔴🌊
well the betting markets are currently pretty convinced that the undecided PA electorate isn't going to react well to Fetterman's aphasia. my guess is the polling will bear that out but we'll see.
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For those that played my election prediction contest last cycle, this one is much simpler and potentially much more lucrative. $25k for first place is worth the time to submit an entry here.
Does anyone want to buy Grassley by less than three (or Franken wins)? I think I'm a buyer of Grassley by three or more at even money. DM if interested.
NEW IOWA POLL
Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley: 46%
Democrat Mike Franken: 43%
Someone else: 4%
Not sure: 3%
Margin of error: 3.9%
desmoinesregister.com/story/…
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Would recommend my political betting followers to consider leaving a nice comment for the CFTC here:
comments.cftc.gov/PublicComm…
read about it here:
cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressRele…
if Kalshi gets these, then so will CME and so will Aristotle (PI's successor). if not, overseas only :(
I don't mix it up on the PI boards much anymore, but one can't underestimate how much they drive site engagement. People that love to bet on obscure things also love to argue about them, a lot. Good to see some of the competitors looking into this more:
what is this analogy
can one just summon an iceberg? are they Democratic Ice Lords?
“It looks like Warren, Newsom and some of the others are looking to run down Biden and the party, which is unhelpful. It’s like they’re on the Titanic and they’re sending out for more icebergs."
nbcnews.com/politics/electio…
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Quite probable imo that the evangelical right makes a federal abortion ban a litmus test for POTUS candidates as early as 2024 if trump doesn't run and certainly in other primaries. don't think the federalism crowd will be able to fight it for very long.
I don't see how one can rule out Republicans attempting to ban abortion if they win the Senate with a few seats to spare (not unlikely by 2025). They've been very aggressive about pursuing anti-abortion legislation even in purple states.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
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The first max bet lost on Kalshi perhaps?
.@Kalshi recently launched their equity index markets- be careful out there kiddos!
Lost 25k today betting the Nasdaq wouldn't implode. Just sharing to cheer you all up for the days you lose a bit of money don't feel too bad. Easy come, easy go.
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