juan v. retweeted
If by "people" he means "the entities we have engaged to short oil," then this Tweet is spot on.
juan v. retweeted
Otro pelotazo de los amigos de Trump que apostaron a la bajada del precio del petróleo mientras nos avisaban de la llegada del apocalipsis
juan v. retweeted
Tucker is being fed this idea in order to intimidate Iran. A better way of thinking about this is to consider it yet another instance of the nuclear threats that the US have made this year against Iran to no discernible effect.
juan v. retweeted
Tener o no tener Energía, ese es el reto
Power is Power
The chart below shows electricity prices in Europe just now, priced per MWh. Just horrific and economically ruinous for any modern economy.
The world spends about $4.2 trillion on electricity and this is split between:
• Generation (2/3
• Transmission & Distribution (1/3)
The world spends around $1.5 trillion on capex and $2.7 trillion on opex. The $1.5 trillion capex gets you 1-2% capacity growth each year. So a rough rule of thumb is that every 1% of GDP you spend on power infrastructure gets you 1-2% more electricity.
If you wanted to grow your power supply by eg 8%, you might expect that to cost 6% of GDP. Nobody has the supply chain to do that, if you want to grow this particular supply chain it will cost you more GDP points on second order things.
Now…
Demand for power around the world is booming, because of 3 big technology trends.
1. Air Conditioning (yes still) +20% consumption
2. Electric Vehicles +80% consumption
3. AI Data Centers +XYZ% consumption
Different regions have different progress on these three trends. US has a lot of AC, little EV and a lot of DC, Europe has little AC, lots of EV little DC. China has a lot of AC and EV.
Now generation splits into fixed costs for the generator plant (site and technology specific) and variable costs for fuel.
Dispatchable Power Cost, by Fuel Type
1. $6 / MWh - Uranium
2. $19 / MWh - Nat Gas 🇺🇸
3. $22 / MWh - Coal 🇺🇸
4. $40 / MWh - Coal 🇨🇳
5. $90 / MWh - LNG
6. $130 / MWh - Biomass
7. $160 / MWh - Nat Gas 🇪🇺 🇯🇵
8. $200 / MWh - Oil
Fracking has given the US a structural energy cost advantage. If you talk to people in China about what is the most impressive thing the US has done they say “fracking”. The challenge with US Nat Gas is that it’s now fully developed and expansion is sort of tapped out.
What the 21st Century demands is a lot of power, you either have it or you don’t. When you look at planetary scale energy and compute trends you see myriad gigantic arbitrage opportunities.
Interesting times!
juan v. retweeted
Geçtiğimiz günlerde kaybettiğimiz Marksist iktisatçı Guglielmo Carchedi, Michael Roberts ile bu çalışmasında emperyalizmi, yüksek teknolojiye sahip emperyalist ülkelerin düşük teknolojiye sahip egemen ülkelerden sürekli ve uzun vadeli net artı değer elde etmesi olarak tanımlıyor, buradan hareketle şöyle bir sonuca ulaşıyorlardı (Görsel 1). Artı değerin emperyalist ülkelere aktığı dört kanal tespit ediyorlar: para senyorajı; sermaye yatırımlarından elde edilen gelir akışı; ticaret yoluyla eşitsiz değişim; döviz kurlarındaki değişimler. 1974'ten bu yana emperyalist (G7) bloğun kar oranı %20, egemen bloğun %32 düşmüş.
juan v. retweeted
Grabad esto en vuestra memoria porque todo va muy rápido: ahora que os han hecho absolutamente dependientes de la IA, lo siguiente es cerraros el acceso al hardware definitivamente y por los medios que sean, para que todo tenga que pasar por sus suscripciones y datacenters.
juan v. retweeted
Nuclear is not a joker. There are some things it can do. Others it cannot. This is a very hard problem.
Yield won’t do it. The weapon needs to penetrate the rock first and then detonate. A 300kt (10X Hiroshima) detonated 3m into the rock may or may not generate enough seismic force to destroy the facilities buried more than 100m underneath.
It really depends on the specific geology of that particular rock formation. Even with a full geological work up, you still couldn’t be sure of destroying it.
What you could be sure about is that the fallout and radiation would be massive, precisely because the weapon must detonate close to the surface.
In terms of disabling usage of the site, the MOP (GBU-57) may be just as effective, with none of the nuclear and geopolitical fallout; above all, the nuclear destruction that is certain to follow in Ukraine.
There is no case for nuking Pickaxe. This is just a bullshit plant to intimidate the Iranians.
… yeah, pretty much.
Pickaxe is buried under like 100m of granite, and given its sheer size, it’s entirely unclear if GBU-57s would accomplish much of anything.
It’s also not like Fordow with its obvious cooling vents, Pickaxe has maybe one obvious weak-point (3rd image), and that appears to have been plugged with concrete.
This would only be credible if they had completely lost their minds… If the taboo is broken, nukes could very well become a reality in Ukraine—to begin; in the medium term, it would mean the end of any non-proliferation policy: the last one to get their bomb is the fool.
The B61-11 is the only U.S. nuclear bomb built to burrow before it explodes.
Analysts say it fits targets like Pickaxe Mountain, which Tucker Carlson claims Trump may strike.
Using any nuclear weapon would break a taboo held since 1945.
clashreport.com/defense/arti…
juan v. retweeted
BREAKING: Belgium is now affected too by a major IT incident disrupting refrigeration systems across multiple supermarket chains.
More than 40 Delhaize stores, 15 Carrefour locations, and around five Spar outlets are reporting problems.
Refrigerators and freezers are reportedly heating up to 15°C, putting food supplies at risk.
BREAKING: 🇸🇪 Swedish grocery giant ICA, one of Sweden's largest supermarket chains, says several of its stores have been hit by a cyberattack overnight, causing refrigerators and freezers to be remotely set to 50°C.
The incident has likely resulted in large quantities of food spoiling. Multiple stores, including ICA Kvantum in Sjöbo and Tomelilla, have reported being affected.
ICA says stores will remain closed during the morning and are expected to reopen at 9:00 a.m. Swedish time.
The company has apologized to customers and says it is working to restore normal operations.
The incident comes amid a wave of cyberattacks targeting businesses recent weeks, following similar incidents reported in France and the United States.
Iran designates Royal Navy and RAF terrorist organisations, terms MI6 hostile group.
hindustantimes.com/s/deeplin…
juan v. retweeted
Remembering Perry Mehrling | Institute for New Economic Thinking ineteconomics.org/perspectiv… #inet
juan v. retweeted
Future historians should note that this was the symbolic moment when the “rule of law” grifters finally went mask-off and started destroying the rule of law due to their lust for power. 🇵🇱
juan v. retweeted
elsaltodiario.com/francia/em…
Considero que ha llegado el momento de que los gobiernos europeos se pongan amistosamente de acuerdo para iniciar el desmantelamiento de la zona euro.
@el_buho69812
@Jorge_Econopata
@litewhisperer
juan v. retweeted
La décision du conseil d’Etat est gravissime. C’est dans les faits une remise en question de la liberté constitutionnelle du droit de manifester. La mise au ban des manifestations participe à la mise au ban progressive de la démocratie par le pouvoir macroniste. C’est une honte.
juan v. retweeted
You can cancel an election and ban the winner from running (Romania), you can ban your opponents from ever running again (Hungary), you can threaten to ban the main opposition party and subject it to relentless investigations by the secret police (Germany), you can threaten a ban on the leading presidential candidate and make them wear an ankle monitor (France), every member of your circle can be investigated for corruption (Spain), you can try and cancel local elections because you will lose them (Britain), and you can storm the constitutional court with riot police because you want to control it (Poland).
You can just do all these things. The secret is you just have to be on the right side of the European Commission.
juan v. retweeted
The Marxist Writer the British Government Doesn’t Want You to Read.
All Andreas Malm titles are now 40% off via our website, just follow the link below:
Verso Books condemns the Labour government’s decision to ban one of our leading authors, Andreas Malm, from entering the United Kingdom.
versobooks.com/blogs/news/a-…
