Thijs Jansen (@largitio) header
Thijs Jansen (@largitio) profile picture

Co-founder & Director of Professional Honor Foundation in the Netherlands

Joined January 2011
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My take on Substack: "Arendt, Techno-optimism, and the Question of an Emerging Totalitarianism" open.substack.com/pub/thijsj…
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German politics is in flux: more volatile, more fragmented, and AfD now polling far ahead of any other party. @jana_puglierin, @PiotrBuras1, @mehrer_angela & I have written a new @ECFR paper exploring what this means for 🇩🇪 's EU and foreign policy ⬇️ ecfr.eu/publication/deutschl…
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Microsoft has laid off thousands of employees while investing billions in AI. Now Outlook goes down, and everyone is depending on human engineers to get things running again. It’s interesting how companies keep talking about replacing people until something breaks and they need people to fix it.
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Ukraine struck the Volgograd oil refinery, which belongs to Lukoil. The same Lukoil that Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have discussed with Putin. The proposed deal involves approximately $20 billion in assets, including oil fields, refineries, and gas stations across several continents. Trump has repeatedly pressured Ukraine to refrain from attacking the russian oil industry. But at this stage, Ukraine appears to be ignoring him and systematically destroying russia’s capacity to wage war.
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‼️ UPDATE: Microsoft 365 is still broken after more than 14 hours, and Europe is starting work with Outlook inboxes that won't open. Microsoft says its servers are steadier since it patched an authentication and routing configuration component. It gives no time for a full fix. Outlook, SharePoint, OneDrive and Copilot are down or badly hit, and Teams calendars fail. Intune and Defender, which IT teams use to manage and protect staff devices, are hit too. Downdetector peaked at about 140,000 Outlook reports. The BBC counts at least 74 countries affected, from Australia's spy agency ASIO to courts in Singapore, Los Angeles and Texas. Servers Microsoft brought back froze again once traffic hit them. It says this is not a cyberattack. Early on, it said it had found no recent change linked to the outage. The Guardian reports it now suggests server configuration settings may be to blame.
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By the end of the year, 650,000 Russians will have died in the war. This is the conclusion reached by the *Financial Times* following an analysis of leaked mortality data from Rosstat. By early August, the death toll had already reached 550,000; it is expected to rise by another 100,000 over the remaining months of the year. When those wounded are included, total casualties already amount to approximately 1.4 million people—a figure roughly equivalent to the entire population of Yekaterinburg or Kazan. Capturing Russian fortifications has become a veritable "meat grinder": the assaults on Avdiivka and Pokrovka alone claimed the lives of about 120,000 Russians, while another 48,000 died during the storming of Bakhmut. Furthermore, the troops currently being sent into battle are increasingly older men; the average age of those killed has risen from 34 at the start of the conflict to 40 today.
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Treffend voorbeeld van de sluimerende impact van technologie op de samenleving, in dit geval Magister. Door hoogleraar Felienne Hermans:
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❗️President Zelenskyy said the sides agreed to continue negotiations: the groups will hold new meetings and work on an agenda for de-escalation and possible ceasefires. An important result was the unblocking of the talks and the agreement of all parties to sit at the table, although he still knows few details about the conversation between the American representatives and Putin.
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🇺🇦🇺🇸🇷🇺‼️ ZELENSKY SAYS UKRAINE PEACE TALKS ARE BACK ON TRACK, WITH MORE THAN 1,000 UKRAINIANS EXPECTED TO RETURN HOME! Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has welcomed the resumption of negotiations, revealing that new meetings are being prepared to discuss prisoner exchanges, de-escalation and potential ceasefire arrangements. Asked what he had learned about Vladimir Putin’s demands from Jared Kushner, Zelensky acknowledged that he knew little about their discussions. “The important thing is that all sides have decided to return to the negotiating table,” he said. Zelensky emphasized that prisoner exchanges remain a central priority, reiterating Ukraine’s demand for an all-for-all exchange. “I don’t understand what the problem is with an all-for-all exchange. Let everyone return home. I think this is also in the Russians’ interests.” He expressed satisfaction that more than 1,000 Ukrainian citizens are expected to return home, describing their return as an important success. The Ukrainian president also confirmed that the negotiating process had been unblocked, with both sides preparing an agenda covering possible de-escalation measures and ceasefire arrangements. 🇪🇺 Asked whether Putin should have a role in shaping Europe’s future security architecture, Zelensky stressed that everything would depend on how and when Russia’s war against Ukraine ends. “Ukraine’s security guarantees are already part of Europe’s security guarantees, because Ukraine is already Europe’s line of defense. Ukraine is already part of Europe’s capabilities, strong capabilities. We are part of Europe, and we are already part of the security architecture.” Zelensky also revealed that he had discussed Ukraine’s potential NATO membership with Jared Kushner. “If we are in NATO, it will be one security architecture. Of course, there will be changes, because NATO will gain a new, strong country with a powerful army. But if we are not, it will be a different architecture.” Asked whether he was more optimistic about ending the war than he had been 24 hours earlier, Zelensky offered a measured response. “I have to be realistic every day until we achieve victory. But I will be very optimistic when the war ends.” 🔥 Zelensky’s remarks make clear that Kyiv sees the renewed negotiations as an opportunity for humanitarian progress and possible de-escalation, rather than evidence that a peace agreement is imminent. His broader message is equally significant. Ukraine’s future security guarantees, including the question of NATO membership, cannot be separated from Europe’s long-term defense arrangements. See the latest updates with us: @NSTRIKE1231
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Zu den Ermittlungen gegen Michel Houellebecq: »PEN Berlin appelliert an die französischen Behörden, sich an Charles de Gaulles zu erinnern: ›Einen Voltaire verhaftet man nicht‹ (...). Und wir haben eine Bitte an die Kolleginnen und Kollegen in den deutschen Medien: Wenn Sie Houellebecqs Ansicht für kritikwürdig halten, nur zu. Aber verzichten Sie bitte auf die geraunte Markierungsvokabel ›umstritten‹. Bei Houellebecq und auch sonst.« penberlin.de/pm-pen-berlin-z…
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Oil Refinery Full House In just two weeks, Ukraine's Defense Forces struck all five of Russia's largest oil refineries — Omsk, Kirishi, Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, and Yaroslavl. Refineries in Saratov and Novokuybyshevsk were also targeted, according to the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces. Now, the Volgograd refinery has joined the list. One of the largest refineries in southern Russia, it has an annual processing capacity of around 14.8 million tons of oil. A fire broke out at the facility following an overnight attack. But how much refining capacity has Russia actually lost? It's important to distinguish between refineries that have been attacked and those that have completely shut down. Oil and gas analyst Sergey Vakulenko previously estimated that facilities targeted by strikes accounted for roughly 55% of Russia's total refining output. That does not mean Russia has lost 55% of its refining capacity: some facilities may have continued operating after the attacks. According to Ukrainian intelligence, by the end of September, 15 of Russia's 38 major oil refineries had suspended operations, while another 12 had reduced output. Meanwhile, the Financial Times cited analysts' estimates suggesting that 20–35% of Russia's oil refining capacity was offline in November.
🔥 One of Russia's largest oil refineries is on fire in Volgograd A fire broke out at the LUKOIL-Volgogradneftepererabotka refinery, which processes around 14.8 million tons of crude oil annually and supplies petroleum products to southern Russia.
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Listen to this unthinkable horror. This is the hell that Trump and Putin have wrought.
President Zelensky says that Russia has taken thousands of Ukrainian children from their land & now they’re seeing the children they stole who grew up during this War being used in the Russian Army to fight as Russian Soldiers against their own Ukrainian people.
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In Wolgograd brennt die Lukoil-Raffinerie, eine der größten des Landes. Rund fünf Prozent der russischen Ölverarbeitung hängen an dieser einen Anlage. So viel zu der Behauptung, Russland habe alle Zeit der Welt. Gestern saßen Trumps Gesandte Witkoff und Kushner noch bei Putin im Kreml, und der ließ sie wissen, dass er von seinen Forderungen kein Stück abrückt. Ukrainische Kanäle zählen den dreizehnten Angriff auf das Werk seit 2022. Der Gouverneur bestätigt Brände im Industriegebiet und meldet vier Tote unter den Beschäftigten. Ob die Raffinerie stillsteht, ist noch nicht bestätigt. Gleich werden die üblichen Verdächtigen wieder Eskalation rufen, ausgerechnet jetzt, wo doch verhandelt wird. Nein! Wer Nacht für Nacht ukrainische Kraftwerke zerschießt, damit die Menschen im Winter frieren, bekommt die Rechnung dort, wo der Krieg bezahlt wird. Zeit mag Putin haben. Benzin hat er immer weniger.
🔥 More footage from Volgograd refinery, which is under attack for the thirteenth time since the start of the full-scale invasion.
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Le renseignement russe a-t-il infiltré le mouvement lycéen en France ? Une enquête menée par une communauté de bénévoles spécialisée révèle qu'un officier russe a bel et bien donné des directives à un « agent » français non identifié ➡️ l.leparisien.fr/h112
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I woke up to another horrifying morning in Ukraine💔 Last night, russia attacked cities across my country. In Kyiv, a medical facility was hit, injuring one person. In Rivne, a drone struck an apartment building. Six injured, including two children. In Odesa, two people were killed and five injured. In Zaporizhzhia, a 17-year-old boy was killed and four others wounded. In Sumy region, an FPV drone killed two civilians. In Vinnytsia, two women were injured. Homes and a kindergarten were damaged.
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Viele checken nicht, dass wir das Zehnfache ausgeben müssen, wenn wir der Ukraine nicht helfen. Die Fragestellung ist bereits falsch. Es ist keine Ukraine-Hilfe, es ist eine Hilfe für ein freies Europa. 🇺🇦🇪🇺 spiegel.de/politik/deutschla…
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Unbelievable. Russian negotiators said their boss was angry and wanted to keep up the strikes... Zelensky has revealed what went on behind closed doors in Abu Dhabi. It turns out that when presented with peace proposals for a ceasefire, Medinsky's delegation could only mumble in response, saying they had no authority to discuss such matters. Instead of anything constructive, the Ukrainians were told that the Russian boss was angry and had no intention of stopping. The fear of the Kremlin's KGB thug turned out to be far greater than we could have imagined…
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This prosecution of Houellebecq provokes concerns that go far beyond freedom of expression. In just over thirty years as a novelist writing mainly about the misery of bourgeois French life, he has lifted up a number of stones and allowed some pretty unsavoury things to crawl out from under them. In no particular order these include sex tourism, paedophilia, mental illness, rampant narcissism, family breakdown, betrayal, social alienation, self-hatred, nihilism, prostitution and, inevitably, racism. But then anyone who understands what French society is really like will find none of this surprising. Read more from Simon Heffer: buff.ly/TW0kHpf
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We have detected speed restrictions on Starshield on our Ukrainian territory – in the temporarily occupied parts of Ukraine. The speed limit is back at 161 kilometers per hour – that’s 100 miles per hour. This directly affects our ability to intercept Russian jet-powered “shahed” drones. These drones come from those areas, and because of the speed restrictions, we simply cannot catch up with them in time. Near the frontline, we cannot use our aircraft. Only drone interceptors can operate there. And without the speed we need, shooting down these “shaheds” becomes much harder. This means more Russian strikes get through, and more of our people are killed by Russia. We are trying to get the details from the American side, but so far, we know very little. If someone in America is making decisions that basically treat Ukrainian territory as if it is not Ukrainian, then this tells us where things are going. We need to be clear and never recognize Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territory in any way. From an address at the 9th European Political Community Summit. (3/3)
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