why did i become a prediction markets maxi ? (opinionated take) ai will endanger capitalism, as the output of elite education with raw intellect will become globally available and cheap ai will endanger manual labor, as the human capital required for construction, mechanics, or even home chores will be priced at $1.50/hour with robots like tesla’s optimus my take? ai perfectly masters and replaces performance-oriented tasks (consulting, coding, manufacturing, trading, healthcare…), with entertainment and attention being the black sheep, or rather golden eggs here: “ai as the engine, and humans as the steering wheel” (@VitalikButerin ) a few years ago, prediction markets were sanctioned by the cftc, actioned through the fbi. today, every month polymarket and kalshi have billions worth of volume. tomorrow they will be bigger wrappers than the nasdaq and the collective “proof-of-stake” tool against a dangerously growing misinformation flywheel without a shred of doubt, those companies that master attention, put humans in the steering wheel and go with the users already are, will undoubtedly win the game DM if you are interested to be part of that new world

prediction markets roundup: - the nba signed partnerships with kalshi and polymarket to make them preferred prediction market exchanges while establishing direct integrity frameworks - kalshi and s&p dow jones indices entered a strategic partnership to develop index-based event contracts - bernstein said prediction markets, derivatives and tokenization are overtaking crypto trading in its outlook for coinbase, robinhood, and circle, projecting prediction markets could generate about $1.7 billion for robinhood by 2028 - kalshi ceo tarek mansour argued prediction markets can police insider trading themselves and pressed for one federal rulebook across all 50 states - kalshi and polymarket hit a record ~$2.7 billion in weekly crypto-contract volume which update stands out most?

Market details here. app.kash.bot/markets/9a41a6b…

yeah there’s this bot called kash. you see people arguing in your feed and instead of just watching you turn the argument into a real money market that lasts 24 hours. how? you just reply to the post, tag the bot, and say which side and how much. where does the money actually sit? excellent question. it never leaves your own wallet. everything settles on solana with your usdc and an ai builds the market in like ten seconds. anyways what are you predicting tonight?

apollo chief economist clearly hasn’t been using kash’s permissionless prediction market launcher

fundraising in 2026 be like

prediction markets roundup - phantom’s crypto wallet began offering us users access to kalshi prediction-market trading directly in-app, expanding retail reach despite the platform’s ongoing lawsuits - robinhood reported surging activity in its bitcoin and gold prediction markets, with some crypto contracts now settling in as little as 15 minutes - draftkings ceo jason robins said the company already operates the no. 3 prediction-market exchange, signaling the sportsbook’s fast rise in event contracts - cftc chairman michael selig announced the agency is monitoring prediction markets for manipulation ahead of the upcoming u.s. midterm elections which update stands out most?

prediction markets may be asking the wrong growth question. “how do we get more people to trade?” assumes everyone wants to become a trader. most people do not. but they already predict constantly: who wins, what launches next, which player gets transferred. those predictions already live in replies and communities because taking a side is fun. the opportunity is not to turn everyone into a trader. it is to make those conversations playable. the world is heavy enough. predicting it should still be fun.

Market details here. app.kash.bot/markets/1cef69b…

prediction markets roundup - dillon brooks trolled lebron james in a new kalshi ad, escalating the celebrity-endorsement rivalry after james signed with polymarket last month - kalshi posted a record-breaking $21.5 billion weekly trading volume as weekly trades crossed 100 million for the first time - a new study found prediction-market traders beat pollsters on 2026 races, with kalshi and polymarket handling over $1.22 billion in single-market election trades this year and kalshi projecting up to $10 billion by 2028 - reuters reported kalshi, polymarket, and their founders have given at least $5 million combined to political groups this cycle which update stands out most?

a market can be perfectly resolvable and still not deserve to exist. polymarket removed a contract concerning potential felony charges in a sexual-assault case after it had already generated more than $450,000 in volume. the outcome may have been objectively verifiable. that does not automatically make it responsible to trade. resolution clarity solves one problem. it does not solve privacy, personal harm, manipulation or the incentives created by financialising an event. this becomes more important as market creation is open to users. permissionless creation should expand the range of knowledge that markets can capture. it should not mean that every tradeable question belongs on a public market. scalable creation therefore needs scalable judgment: systems that can assess not only whether an outcome can be resolved, but whether creating the market introduces unacceptable harm. the difficult question is no longer simply “can we create this market?” it is “what responsibility comes with making anything a market?” all that was baked into kash's llm council, for market creation and resolution.

prediction markets are usually described as the wisdom of crowds. new data suggests the truth may be closer to the wisdom of a very small minority, amplified by the market. researchers analyzed more than 1 billion trades and identified 0.15% of takers who forecast significantly better than the markets they traded against. after one of these traders entered, prices moved an average of 1.7 cents toward their position by the next order and 3.3 cents by market close. the surprising part: forecasting skill was largely separate from profitability. the trader who makes the most money is not necessarily the trader who contributes the best information. profit can come from execution, timing or market structure. calibration measures whether your predictions are consistently right. this changes how we should think about reputation in prediction markets. followers show distribution. p&l shows financial performance. neither necessarily shows who improves the forecast. kash is built for people who are early and right. the bonding curve rewards conviction: identify the correct outcome early and you enter at a better price. the social layer then turns that forecasting record into visible reputation others can discover and follow. the best forecasters should not remain an invisible 0.15