Lorraine

Q: Is One Nation all-but-running-dead in Victoria, yielding the state to the Liberals? @PollBludger has PHON around 21.9% Setting aside the realistic potential a vote this high could deliver PHON “kingmaker” power - via preferences, control of Victoria’s upper house, and potentially denying a Liberal majority in the Legislative Assembly… let’s focus on funding: A 21.9% primary vote would entitle the party to $9.3 million in per-vote taxpayer funding… …PLUS another $9.3m in advance funding for the 2030 state election… …BUT they need to spend at least $9.3m this year on their campaigns to be entitled to claim $9.3m in public funding. Spend less? Claim less. So far public disclosure portals show just $109,518 raised, plus $87,430.44 in public funding from last election - against $153 spent on Meta ads, and 0 across Google and YouTube. That sees One Nation at less than 5% of Liberal or Labor funds raised, and a fraction of 1% of their digital ad spend - despite a primary vote (and public funding entitlements) in the same ballpark as Labor. So the scale of their 2026 campaign seems to be only slightly larger than their 2022 so far - where their audited spend/payout from the public purse was $87k (against a $89k potential entitlement). To be running a [say] $200k campaign would leave $18.3m in potential public funding unclaimed. That’s $9.2m of new 2026 public campaign funding + another $9.3m of public advance funding (minus amounts already claimed, and the $200k alternative). That’s a crazy amount of money to be leaving on the table. There’s 3 scenarios I see here - and I reckon all 3 might be right: a. One Nation is grossly under-prepared to campaign competitively against the major parties - despite their 21.9% vote share. They lack the people, the war-chests, and the understanding of the Victorian electoral environment. b. The situation exposes how the entire funding model in Victoria locks non-major-party competitors out - meaning NOBODY (not One Nation, not Greens, not VicSoc, not Independents, not even the Nationals if they went out on their own) can compete on a level playing field with Labor and Liberals. c. One Nation is running dead in Victoria - yielding to the “uniparty” of Wilson’s Liberals (…perhaps recognising that the Liberals have already committed to an onshore gas expansion that will revive Rinehart’s stranded Gippsland gas field investments?)