Machi Big Brother retweeted
Prediction markets = insurance ?
You can now trade protocol revenue and exploit odds. We're partnering with Trueo to launch new prediction markets that settle based on DefiLlama data.
Revenue Markets
If you follow the revenue meta, you can now trade that directly on Trueo. We launched markets for Hyperliquid, Pump, Aero, Uniswap, Collector Crypt, and Papertrade revenue.
Exploit Markets
Hedge against exploit risk by trading the odds of total DeFi hacks and exploits of specific protocols. We have markets for whether there will be exploits of Aave and Morpho this month. We also have weekly and monthly markets for the size of the largest hack.
Other Onchain Metrics
Robinhood Chain RWA mcap, Robinhood Chain DEX volume, and whether Solana or Base ends the week with higher TVL.
defillama.com/predictions
Machi Big Brother retweeted
This integration is massive.
@DefiLlama is the first major market curator on Trueo.
Why is this a big deal
Distribution. Aka eyeballs.
DefiLlama is the most widely adopted analytics platform in crypto, they cover everything onchain.
With this partnership, Trueo’s markets are integrated directly into the dashboards that are so essential to onchain research.
Interested in Hyperliquid’s metrics?
You can now see the real-time probabilities of them hitting certain milestones this week, month, or quarter right next to the data you’re consuming.
Curious about protocol exploit risks?
Find the odds of a protocol being hacked as you research it.
Want to hedge that risk? Our markets can help cover some of that downside.
DefiLlama users include degens, businesses, institutions, and even governments!
Their newsletter alone has 33K subs.
I envision a future where prediction markets are embedded into virtually every news, media, and data platform.
This partnership is a leap in that direction.
Long live Trueo. Long Live DefiLlama ✌️
Trueo × DefiLlama
We’re proud to announce that Crypto’s analytics powerhouse is now a distribution partner for Trueo!
Our prediction markets are live on @DefiLlama dashboards, bringing markets on risk, revenue, AUM, and other metrics directly to the users tracking the data.
Machi Big Brother retweeted
This partnership is only the beginning.
News, science, and geopolitics next.
We believe the best way to grow is to partner with leaders in each field and bring our prediction markets directly to their audiences.
The Trueo expansion era is here.
This integration is massive.
@DefiLlama is the first major market curator on Trueo.
Why is this a big deal
Distribution. Aka eyeballs.
DefiLlama is the most widely adopted analytics platform in crypto, they cover everything onchain.
With this partnership, Trueo’s markets are integrated directly into the dashboards that are so essential to onchain research.
Interested in Hyperliquid’s metrics?
You can now see the real-time probabilities of them hitting certain milestones this week, month, or quarter right next to the data you’re consuming.
Curious about protocol exploit risks?
Find the odds of a protocol being hacked as you research it.
Want to hedge that risk? Our markets can help cover some of that downside.
DefiLlama users include degens, businesses, institutions, and even governments!
Their newsletter alone has 33K subs.
I envision a future where prediction markets are embedded into virtually every news, media, and data platform.
This partnership is a leap in that direction.
Long live Trueo. Long Live DefiLlama ✌️
Machi Big Brother retweeted
While you were minting $PAPER, we studied the DeFi blade.
Yielding collateral powered by @yearnfi
Prediction market specific Univ4 AMM with @Uniswap
Analytics integration with @DefiLlama
You can now trade the odds. You can hedge a position.
Or buy insurance on any protocol.
Trueo × DefiLlama
We’re proud to announce that Crypto’s analytics powerhouse is now a distribution partner for Trueo!
Our prediction markets are live on @DefiLlama dashboards, bringing markets on risk, revenue, AUM, and other metrics directly to the users tracking the data.
Wow base:0x21cfcfc3d8f98fc728f48341d10ad8283f6eb7ab. Everyone will be full of regret. Trillions. Few.
Giant awakening
Trueo × DefiLlama
We’re proud to announce that Crypto’s analytics powerhouse is now a distribution partner for Trueo!
Our prediction markets are live on @DefiLlama dashboards, bringing markets on risk, revenue, AUM, and other metrics directly to the users tracking the data.
Machi Big Brother retweeted
infinite supply is the best path forward for $PAPER if you are thinking long-term
you want it to continue to be rewarding to play at the casino whether it be perps or other products to come
but ideally this is also offset in some form so there it doesn't dilute early supporters completely either
the token being transferrable is also ideal as opposed to becoming a non-xferrable token for good (is it for good?)
creating a permissioned spot market in the following format could be an interesting solution
1. $PAPER is only tradeable/transferrable through @papertrade_xyz and there is an unstaking fee that burns $PAPER
2. house gains are partially used to fund the liquidity pool for the $PAPER spot market or additional fees are added to provide this flow initially
3. the valve that controls whether house gains goes towards the liquidity pool for the spot market is dynamic and not a constant
4. the pool has a high transfer tax for sellers like 10% and this 10% tax is either used to buyback and burn $PAPER or counted as house gains that flows back towards stakers/liquidity pool or all three depending on condition of bankroll and pool
5. the transfer tax is dynamic and dependent on the depth of the liquidity pool, shallower pool = higher tax with taxes as high as 50% or even more
6. the $PAPER spot market turns on/off depending on the state of the house bankroll and when bankroll is under stress the liquidity pool is diverted towards the bankroll
7. there are breakers in place for both total volume and price change of $PAPER within a specific time period to prevent an attack on the spot market combined with perpetuals
8. the spot market can be turned on/off for administrative reasons if derivative markets activity is presenting a risk to the house bankroll and/or pool
the end result is a token that has infinite supply but its supply can both grow or shrink depending on the activity of the house and spot market
the token is also tradeable but only through the house-pool and the pool has safety-nets in place to prevent abuse
liquidity pool also becomes a backstop to the bankroll for when the bankroll is under stress which can delay or prevent the need for paper emissions to grow when under stress
and most importantly all trading activity is captured by the house without any volume being lost to outside markets since it will not be possible to create another spot market
just some thoughts
Machi Big Brother retweeted
know ive been tweeting about this a lot but really think papertrade could be a generational setup
high leverage perps are crypto's most profitable product to date, demand for speculation is not going to go away
ability to open/close synthetic 1000x positions w/ no market impact is a novel mechanism, paired w/ the house-trader relationship where trader losses fund the onchain LP, & all losses after a certain LP cap get paid out to traders staking the platform's native paper token - can see how this can maintain traction longterm, already at 50M+ paid out to $PAPER stakers in first week
every other perp dex's revenue comes from a small take rate on the fees of volume, no perp dex has been able to monetize directly trader losses, of which it's been shown is a much larger number, in theory winners should be able to easily get paid out from house LP over time as high leverage has a difficult success rate, ideal state is that its closer to 50/50 winners/losers after a certain LP cap and even then its a much better model allowing traders to own the house
what's more interesting tho is that the model should be able to be extensible to other games outside of just perpetual futures, the online gambling industry is massive, and none of the online casinos are +EV for users, every major online casino is -EV as thats how the house makes money by creating games that are slightly better probabilistically for the house and monetizing losses over time, with papertrade it should be possible to let people speculate on other similar games with the same model as losses going back directly to paper stakers instead of just to the house - so im curious to see what team is thinking of here
if hyperliquid is the AWS of all of finance, then papertrade could be the AWS of all high leverage speculation money games on the internet, will be cool to see how the next several months play out, dont think people have gone deep enough on the possibilities with one of the first novel onchain experiments in awhile that also rewards its most active participants
Machi Big Brother retweeted
PAPER is now trading 24/7 on Hyperliquid.
$PAPER is the native token of @papertrade_xyz, a synthetic perpetuals platform on HyperEVM, minted to traders from realized losses and stakeable for a share of platform fees. The contract trades as a Pre-Launch perp that converts to a normal perp.
Machi Big Brother retweeted
I’m so happy to acquire this golden grail, especially tonight during Apefest!! My conviction in the club has never been stronger, and I’m super grateful to @machibigbrother for making this deal!! BAYC for life!!!!!
Gold BAYC # 197 traded via @GrailsOTC.
The highest valued BAYC trade in the last 12 month.
Buyer @AdamWeitsman
Seller @machibigbrother
Machi Big Brother retweeted
Heads up because I'm seeing that question a lot: OpenSea will NOT show your totem in your wallet, because it's not there!
Each ape was given a 6551 wallet and the token is in that wallet.
Connect to mudwater.bayc.com/claim and you should see it. If you've issued a shadow delegation, connect the delegate wallet. It's there.
Machi Big Brother retweeted
all bayc & mayc have been airdropped a token that allows holders to claim an allocation of Mudwater
there's been a lot of talk about alignment between projects and collectors
we want to experiment with a new model:
trading on this collection implements a 2.5% $APE Reflection, which is a trading fee used to buy apecoin and distribute to pack holders
hold more packs get more apecoin
the reflection and the creator royalty % are the same
so we're 50/50 with holders
let's build this together
Machi Big Brother retweeted
Mudwater is an old game played deep in the Everglades.
Instead of dice in alleys, we play Mudwater on the docks.
The game is simple, but the skill ceiling is high.
And we play for keeps.
We've just airdropped this 6551 Totem, paired to all BAYC & MAYC, enabling pack claims.