Mark Singleton

My take on the options for the JHB & Tshwane.👇🏼 Bring receipts to challenge my findings. Herman Mashaba’s playbook is consistent: cut deals with the EFF and the Gauteng ANC faction around Panyaza Lesufi (the networks critics call the Alex gang) in exchange for positions and the appearance of power. Yes, that's why Herman's mayor position ended. Hence he still attacks Helen like a Ben10 child of many faces. In Joburg he needed their votes and made the concessions. In Tshwane he helped remove Brink so Nasiphi Moya could become mayor in an ANC-EFF-ActionSA arrangement. Lesufi later claimed Tshwane was under ANC influence. The same pattern is now set for both metros. The Alex-linked crew will love it, they keep the influence while Mashaba and ActionSA supply the cover. Citizens will only fully see the abused tenders and failed service delivery in the next administration. Herman was the deliberate enabler so he could sit in the chair (or think he was sitting in it). Not every ANC member belongs to those circles. The national ANC is less enthusiastic: they have watched ActionSA take wards and support in places where the ANC put in real effort (including around Tembisa) and still get punished while ASA takes the credit. Fikile Mbalula has already seen the pattern. Expect Lesufi to try holding national at ransom again if his faction does not get its preferred arrangements. Johannesburg needs national level coordination and support to get out of the hole it is in. Zille has been clear that fixing it requires engaging National Treasury and structures like Operation Vulindlela. That is where the existing (if messy) GNU relationship can actually help. A DA–ANC deal is possible, but it would require the national ANC to restrain Lesufi’s interference. ActionSA plus the Lesufi circle will not resolve Johannesburg or Tshwane. However Herman and Lesufi would both love this easy path. Herman enables the corrupt provincial networks so he can have the title, then convinces himself he is in control. Weak leaders do this, they get drunk on the appearance of power and mistake being used for being in charge. Puppet mayors get drunk on the title while remaining blind to the destructive actions unfolding under their watch. That is why he is acting as if ActionSA just became one of the biggest forces in the country. Attacking candidates the voters actually chose, while putting his position above the city’s interests, is the behaviour of an insecure politician who has never really learned how power works. Narcissists do not grow. They stay stuck in the mentality of a child who thinks he is always right. Moya and the rest of his members go under the bus first. The city pays the price. He keeps the title.

In 2006 when I led the DA in local govt elections, ANC under Thabo Mbeki won 64% and we got 16%. This week 20 years later ANC won 31% and DA 24% -back then gap was 48 points and now it has narrowed to just 6 or 7. The famous ‘ long haul’ just got a lot shorter