
Fmr CEO of political risk consultancy @pozieresconsult now Family Office focused on frontier markets. Stand by none of my market calls but all of my book reco’s
Joined March 2009
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Mathew Casey retweeted
“The people caught in labor’s shrinking share of GDP don’t need a graph on X, they’ve been living the line for years.”
Mathew Casey retweeted
Replying to @TheStalwart @adam_tooze
George Orwell wrote an answer to this in the 1930s. Still cutting and still true.
Mathew Casey retweeted
I *think* I've built a reputation for creating experiences that are genuinely fun, with cool people who are both smart and humble...
I really love connecting awesome people with each other and seeing ideas fly around, common ground discovered, and long-term friendships forge.
I'm always looking for people who enjoy these kinds of experiences so help me spread the word, will ya?
Mathew Casey retweeted
Fascinating tool that lets you re-draw your life at random, becoming a random person in a random country at a random time in human history. It then recounts your story.
A few runs in, my reaction is, f--- this!!! Hoping there's no reincarnation...
anyhumanever.com/
Mathew Casey retweeted
The K-shaped economy in my 2011 paper
"Optimal leverage from non-ergodicity."
It has aged unfortunately well. It cautions against a naive use of orthodox economics, which foregrounds aggregate wealth, like expected value and GDP, and disregards individual citizens' experiences.
Mathew Casey retweeted
The reason is embedded in the analysis above and the conclusions below that.
In this entire transaction, ask yourself... Cui Bono?
smartkarma.com/insights/japa…
Mathew Casey retweeted
Delighted that my pal Craig Coben @thekrazykobra - another senior ECM banker has decided to chip in here via the FT giftarticle.ft.com/giftartic… Craig - I hope you wrote a letter to Nasdaq too?!!!
Thanks @profplum99 for motivating me to take a moment to write in as well. The Nasdaq 100 index committee risks tainting the US capital formation system that is the envy of the world.
Dear Sirs,
I am writing to comment on Proposal 2 (“Fast Entry”) and Proposal 3 (the “5x Free Float Multiplier”) in the February 2026 Nasdaq 100 Consultation.
I have spent over 30 years in capital markets. 25 years of which were in investment banking where I led ECM businesses for Goldman Sachs, Citi and Jefferies in Europe and Asia. In that period, I led or advised on hundreds of IPOs and equity offerings, including numerous SEC registered (foreign issuer) deals on the Nasdaq.
- I can see exactly how rule changes like this will be gamed and abused by issuers and insiders.
- These proposed rule changes do not represent progress - they make a mockery of price discovery and dump concept valuation securities on unsuspecting retail investors.
5x Free Float Multiplier
- Low float IPOs are already creating a negative view of US IPOs. To reward low float deals with robotic flows is absurd
- The 5x uplift for stocks with less than 20% free float tears up one of the traditional and necessary trade-offs that companies made when going public.
- Historically, if you want index inclusion and a lower cost of capital, you need to put real float into real public hands.
- This rule creates the opposite effect. You are effectively telling issuers: keep 80–90% of the stock locked up and we will treat you, for index flows, like a 50% float company. That is a built‑in short squeeze on passive investors.
- Insider shares, options, and RSUs go deep in the money, not because fundamentals improved, but because the rulebook forces passive capital to chase an artificially scarce float.
Fast Entry
- “Fast Entry” collapses seasoning for very large new listings. A mega‑cap IPO that hits the size threshold is pulled into the index after a token trading history.
- Everyone in the market will know roughly when the forced buyer (such as the QQQ ETF) shows up.
- Early listing of listed options on new IPOs can and will exaggerate this effect. I would not rule out insider involvement in that activity.
- That is an invitation to structure deals, allocations, and lock‑ups around predictable index flows
- This is clearly being teed up for the SpaceX and OpenAI / Anthropic IPOs. I predict that retail investors and unwitting passive investors will be harmed.
Why This Matters for a Systemic Benchmark
- The Nasdaq 100 / QQQ sits at the center of global ETF complex, driving trillions of dollars of futures, options, and structured product activity.
- Embedding low‑float amplifiers and rapid inclusion of unseasoned giants increases concentration in names with untested liquidity and makes a mockery of price discovery.
- Disorderly moves around IPOs and rebalance dates.
- The use of passive capital as an insider liquidity tool, not a neutral allocator.
What You Should Do
- Drop the 5x low‑float multiplier. Index weight should follow freely tradable equity, not scarcity.
- Tighten or rethink Fast Entry so that very large new listings prove liquidity and trading history before inclusion.
- Reaffirm that the purpose of the index is investability and credible price discovery—not maximizing monetization for tightly held new issues.
If you proceed with these changes as drafted, the message will be clear: Nasdaq is willing to subordinate price discovery and market integrity to the interests of insiders and deal‑makers. You are now writing that preference directly into the rules.
Yours faithfully,
Rupert Mitchell
Former senior ECM banker, over 25 years advising issuers and investors on IPOs and capital markets offerings as a Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, Citi and Jefferies.
Mathew Casey retweeted
Thanks @profplum99 for motivating me to take a moment to write in as well. The Nasdaq 100 index committee risks tainting the US capital formation system that is the envy of the world.
Dear Sirs,
I am writing to comment on Proposal 2 (“Fast Entry”) and Proposal 3 (the “5x Free Float Multiplier”) in the February 2026 Nasdaq 100 Consultation.
I have spent over 30 years in capital markets. 25 years of which were in investment banking where I led ECM businesses for Goldman Sachs, Citi and Jefferies in Europe and Asia. In that period, I led or advised on hundreds of IPOs and equity offerings, including numerous SEC registered (foreign issuer) deals on the Nasdaq.
- I can see exactly how rule changes like this will be gamed and abused by issuers and insiders.
- These proposed rule changes do not represent progress - they make a mockery of price discovery and dump concept valuation securities on unsuspecting retail investors.
5x Free Float Multiplier
- Low float IPOs are already creating a negative view of US IPOs. To reward low float deals with robotic flows is absurd
- The 5x uplift for stocks with less than 20% free float tears up one of the traditional and necessary trade-offs that companies made when going public.
- Historically, if you want index inclusion and a lower cost of capital, you need to put real float into real public hands.
- This rule creates the opposite effect. You are effectively telling issuers: keep 80–90% of the stock locked up and we will treat you, for index flows, like a 50% float company. That is a built‑in short squeeze on passive investors.
- Insider shares, options, and RSUs go deep in the money, not because fundamentals improved, but because the rulebook forces passive capital to chase an artificially scarce float.
Fast Entry
- “Fast Entry” collapses seasoning for very large new listings. A mega‑cap IPO that hits the size threshold is pulled into the index after a token trading history.
- Everyone in the market will know roughly when the forced buyer (such as the QQQ ETF) shows up.
- Early listing of listed options on new IPOs can and will exaggerate this effect. I would not rule out insider involvement in that activity.
- That is an invitation to structure deals, allocations, and lock‑ups around predictable index flows
- This is clearly being teed up for the SpaceX and OpenAI / Anthropic IPOs. I predict that retail investors and unwitting passive investors will be harmed.
Why This Matters for a Systemic Benchmark
- The Nasdaq 100 / QQQ sits at the center of global ETF complex, driving trillions of dollars of futures, options, and structured product activity.
- Embedding low‑float amplifiers and rapid inclusion of unseasoned giants increases concentration in names with untested liquidity and makes a mockery of price discovery.
- Disorderly moves around IPOs and rebalance dates.
- The use of passive capital as an insider liquidity tool, not a neutral allocator.
What You Should Do
- Drop the 5x low‑float multiplier. Index weight should follow freely tradable equity, not scarcity.
- Tighten or rethink Fast Entry so that very large new listings prove liquidity and trading history before inclusion.
- Reaffirm that the purpose of the index is investability and credible price discovery—not maximizing monetization for tightly held new issues.
If you proceed with these changes as drafted, the message will be clear: Nasdaq is willing to subordinate price discovery and market integrity to the interests of insiders and deal‑makers. You are now writing that preference directly into the rules.
Yours faithfully,
Rupert Mitchell
Former senior ECM banker, over 25 years advising issuers and investors on IPOs and capital markets offerings as a Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, Citi and Jefferies.
Mathew Casey retweeted

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardiFeb 19
🇺🇸
United StatesConnected via United States Android AppAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Mathew Casey retweeted
Life hack: try to understand what people are saying and why they're saying it, especially when it makes no sense to you.
Mathew Casey retweeted
Recorded earlier today (Benny is in Dubai). We discussed the flattener in the US Treasury market and whether or not it will stall the rally we have seen in financials stocks eg KRE); equity positioning at extreme multiples; and finally putting boot into ‘Team SaaS’.
youtu.be/abi2ZBRP1XI?si=yfu2…
Mathew Casey retweeted
“Macro trading is political science with a P&L”
Yes.
Especially now.
Hat tip: the incomparable YH.
Mathew Casey retweeted
Replying to @matcasey
I started making the shift to accepting that DMs were the same as EMs when Sharpe World methodologies got hardcoded with Basel I. Free market function was taken away as ever greater market impact was put in the hands of Rational Accounting Man. convex-strategies.com/2025/0…
Mathew Casey retweeted
p.s. if EU banks derisked in dollars (fearing the loss of the ECB dollar credit which depends on the ECB's ability to swap with the Fed for dollars) they would sell corporate and probably some Agency bonds ... and that would be felt on this side of the Atlantic.
5/5
Mathew Casey retweeted
Thanks for the shout out @tracyalloway !
bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Mathew Casey retweeted
Replying to @LukeGromen @pineconemacro
I don’t think it’s a lack of imagination from global investors, from the outside looking in, the US looks more & more problematic & chaotic, it’s untaxed gains, institutional constraints, investment mandates (that will likely be changed soon) & a large splash of performance chasing/career risk that has kept managers in the game, I think the career risk is shifting now & the first hint of US underperformance or drawdowns will have many foreign allocators running for the door for the first time in many many years.
Mathew Casey retweeted
EU may lend a hand if pushed, EU Parliament Subcommittee on Tax Matters held a hearing on "The role of tax incentives in achieving EU policy goals." Inc. tax incentives & supporting economic objectives - what about a repatriation tax break to liquidate your 15 years of QQQ gains?


















