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Rather than engaging in more fruitless negotiations, the U.S. should now focus on a land blockade alongside its naval and air blockades.
The goal: seal Iran from the international trade the regime depends on for its survival.
My latest with @FDD @miadmaleki
While nearly everyone else was declaring the Battle of Hormuz lost, we at @FDD were calling this outcome for months.
Never underestimate @CENTCOM, @centcomcdr, or the extraordinary men and women of the U.S. military.
From the @WSJ: “Persian Gulf oil exports have surpassed prewar levels, as an improvised shipping system under U.S. protection is helping tankers move oil through one of Iran’s fiercest waves of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.”
wsj.com/world/middle-east/mo…
Mark Dubowitz retweeted
I am not Jewish. But I am a proud Israeli citizen. I live in Tel Aviv. Despite the world having extremely opinionated views about the country I live in, few people I have come across on X (that don’t live here) know little of substance about Israel apart from their warped sense of history and reality. This is the first post of a series I will write entitled Everything You Think You Know About Israel is (Probably) Wrong. The points are not in any particular order. Spread the word.
Most Israelis (just over 50%) are not white. The devastating impact on European Jews of the Holocaust meant that the newly formed Israel in 1948 was largely populated by Jews fleeing persecution in Muslim-ruled countries predominantly in the Middle East and North Africa. These are known as Mizrahi Jews and when the State of Israel was formed they made up 80% of the Jewish population living here.
Jews have had a continuous presence in the land of Israel since around 1208 BCE, that’s 3,200 years — long before the creation of the state of Israel in 1948. The Muslim faith, in contrast, dates back 1,400 years (610 CE). Yes, when they lost majority rule in the 7th-century Muslim conquest they were not in the majority for centuries, but still lived in their ancestral homeland.
Arab terrorism against Jews existed before 1948. In 1929, for example, 67 Jews were killed in the Hebron massacre, attacked and slaughtered by the Arabs they lived and worked beside. My wife’s great-grandfather Ben-Zion Gershon (who was a local doctor that often treated the Arab community without accepting payment) was tortured, had both his eyes gouged out and was then murdered. This was after his daughter Esther was raped in front of him, and his wife Zahava had both arms chopped off and was left to die. This was just one of many similar massacres inflicted on Jews that day.
I will continue this series over the coming days.
My warning in August about the dangers of a new October surprise. nypost.com/2026/08/20/opinio…
Mark Dubowitz retweeted
🚨🇮🇷 A catastrophic explosion and massive fire just ripped through Production Line 6 at the Iranian Aluminium Company (IRALCO) in Arak - the crown jewel of Iran’s metallurgy sector.
👉Both the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular Iranian Army rely heavily on raw materials from IRALCO to manufacture critical defense components, ranging from advanced ballistic missile casings and drone airframes to conventional military hardware and armored vehicle plating.
Mark Dubowitz retweeted
🚨 OBAMA FUELING DEMOCRATS’ BETRAYAL OF ISRAEL
NY Post columnist Michael Goodwin argues Barack Obama helped normalize anti-Israel hostility within the Democratic Party.
Speaking in Belfast, Obama claimed Jews “took land off people” and accused Israel of surrendering the “moral high ground.”
Netanyahu shot back: “Our land is not stolen land.”
Goodwin also highlights Obama’s ties to NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani and his endorsement of Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who declared Israel is “not actually our friend” and accused its military of “full war crimes, genocide.”
Elisha Wiesel, son of Holocaust survivor Elie Wiesel, challenged Obama’s historical narrative, citing Jewish ties to Hebron, Israel’s acceptance of the 1947 UN partition plan, past peace offers and the 2005 Gaza withdrawal.
Goodwin argues Obama’s influence has helped turn hostility toward Israel into mainstream Democratic politics.
Mark Dubowitz retweeted
The U.S. and Israel are telling the IRGC that they are prepared to immediately respond forcefully to any October surprise. That should not be confused with Trump or Netanyahu wanting escalation before their elections are over. Clearly a faction in Tehran keeps pushing the option.
Mark Dubowitz retweeted
The Bank of Israel forecasts exceptionally strong economic growth of 5.6% this year and 7.5% next year.
According to the bank’s estimates, unemployment will fall to 3%, while inflation will stand at 1.6%.
Mark Dubowitz retweeted
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has embarked on a three-day visit to Turkey seeking closer relations with one of the world’s most repressive, cruel, and abusive regimes, a global leader in torturing prisoners, jailing journalists, and killing Kurds. This is the same Mark Carney who never misses a chance to condemn democratic Israel and threaten us with sanctions. Bon voyage to the hypocrite-in-chief.
Mark Dubowitz retweeted
From the @WSJ: “Persian Gulf oil exports have surpassed prewar levels, as an improvised shipping system under U.S. protection is helping tankers move oil through one of Iran’s fiercest waves of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.”
wsj.com/world/middle-east/mo…
Mark Dubowitz retweeted
Making sanctions "work" better against the Islamic Republic, a 101 by the Max Pressure guru himself, @miadmaleki of @FDD in @WSJopinion.
This approach employs arm-twisting then hand-holding against ship owners and operators to foster compliance and reward behavior change.
My @FDD colleague @miadmaleki in @WSJopinion with another smart and actionable idea: “In eight years at the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, I learned that offering owners an exit can help enforce sanctions. We delisted ships and companies on a case-by-case basis when they changed hands. But we didn’t have a blockade that made the fleet’s Iranian business worthless. That lever exists now.” wsj.com/opinion/a-buyout-for…
Mark Dubowitz retweeted
Regime officials spared in the first war to keep negotiations alive may not survive the next, as the United States and Israel could wipe out entire layers of the Islamic Republic’s leadership.
Hamzeh Safavi, the son of former IRGC commander Yahya Rahim Safavi, warns that the next attack could expand from targeting roughly 40 senior officials to eliminating between 1,000 and 1,500 members of the regime.
He calls it the “lawnmower” strategy.
The objective would no longer be limited to removing the Islamic Republic’s highest commanders. The campaign could move systematically through the regime’s provincial IRGC commanders, intelligence officials, Basij leaders and other functionaries responsible for maintaining control across Iran.
Safavi considers this one of the most serious scenarios for the next phase of the war. Its purpose would be to paralyze the regime’s command structure and force it into absolute surrender.
This is not a confirmed American or Israeli plan. It is a warning from a regime-connected figure that reveals how vulnerable the Islamic Republic now believes its entire governing class has become.
Safavi admits that officials were caught off guard during the previous attacks. They did not believe the United States and Israel would locate and eliminate senior figures so quickly, freely and without hesitation.
The next phase he fears would scale that model dramatically.
Precision strikes could target officials as they move, meet and communicate. Cyber operations could disrupt command networks while simultaneous attacks on missile facilities and underground headquarters prevent surviving leaders from coordinating an effective response.
Safavi also warns that missile cities and command centres buried between 60 and 120 metres underground could be targeted. Such an operation would likely require American bunker-busting weapons, sustained intelligence coverage and continued air superiority over Iran.
The political calculation may also be changing.
Earlier in the conflict, some officials were reportedly spared because the United States needed interlocutors capable of negotiating. Figures such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi retained value as channels through which a ceasefire or settlement could be reached.
The “lawnmower” scenario assumes that restraint has ended.
Instead of preserving negotiators, the next campaign could dismantle the governing layer that allows the Islamic Republic to repress unrest, mobilize loyalists and rebuild military power after every round of strikes.
Eliminating 1,000–1,500 officials would be vastly more difficult than targeting several dozen senior leaders. The regime can disperse personnel, restrict communications, move officials underground and rapidly appoint replacements. Such an operation would also risk civilian casualties, retaliation and institutional fragmentation rather than an orderly surrender.
But Safavi’s warning exposes the deeper crisis.
The Islamic Republic built its deterrence around the assumption that its leaders, underground facilities and security hierarchy were beyond the enemy’s reach. The previous war shattered that assumption.
Regime insiders are no longer debating whether senior officials can be reached. They are warning that the next campaign could move from leadership decapitation to the systematic destruction of the regime’s entire command structure.
The Islamic Republic spent decades threatening to destroy its enemies. Its own elite is now discussing how much of the regime may survive the next attack.
Turkey’s Justification for Military Presence in Syria Doesn’t Hold Up
New FDD Policy Brief by @AhmadA_Sharawi: bit.ly/4Bp7UZO
My @FDD colleague @miadmaleki in @WSJopinion with another smart and actionable idea: “In eight years at the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, I learned that offering owners an exit can help enforce sanctions. We delisted ships and companies on a case-by-case basis when they changed hands. But we didn’t have a blockade that made the fleet’s Iranian business worthless. That lever exists now.” wsj.com/opinion/a-buyout-for…
Mark Dubowitz retweeted
Persian Gulf oil exports have surpassed prewar levels, as an improvised shipping system under U.S. protection is helping tankers move oil through one of Iran’s fiercest waves of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. on.wsj.com/4dKoAkk
Mark Dubowitz retweeted
The U.S. can break the Iranian regime’s ghost fleet and the black market behind it. Not by lifting sanctions wholesale, but by letting U.S.-aligned companies buy the tankers out of Tehran’s black market, recycle them into legitimate trade and put them to work hauling Gulf oil through Hormuz while the blockade keeps Iran’s own cargo bottled up.
That gives anyone who wants out of Iran’s orbit a door: sell the ship to a legitimate operator and it comes off the list. The owners who stay get nothing.
@USTreasury has already shown it works. On Oct. 8 it delisted two ships sold to U.S.-aligned operators the same day it blacklisted 17 more.
My op-ed in today’s @WSJopinion.
Mark Dubowitz retweeted
Teachers to be banned from wearing Palestine badges as review finds 3 in 5 Jewish pupils have faced antisemitism at school trib.al/00Lztkq
Kemi Badenoch makes me think the UK can be saved if British voters are smart enough to elect her. She’s a remarkable talent with the moral clarity, integrity and courage so lacking in the political class of the West.
"Winning an election is just the beginning, how you govern is what really matters."
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch answers Sky's @serenabarksing's question on the party's 'toxic' brand.
trib.al/T6w1Jpe
.@elonmusk on Israel's right to defend itself:
"The neighboring countries, many times in Israel, have tried to annihilate Israel. Not once—multiple times."
"In Israel, they realize if you let in the people that want to kill Israelis, they will do so."
"They are quite pragmatic about this."
Via @WalterIsaacson
Palantir CEO Alex Karp on Israel and the October 7th attacks:
“The only two CEOs that went to Israel, who run publicly-traded companies, are @elonmusk and I.”
“Whatever you think of Elon, calling him a Nazi… is completely absurd and a complete re-write of history.
“I was one of the very few people. There were others—Rowan, @BillAckman, Elon, I, @AlbertBourla, there was a very small group of people.”
“It’s now more popular to have been pro-Israel now because Israel won.”
February 1st, 2025
The riots in France are not random.
FDD Senior Envoy for Europe @srodan tells @JSchanzer that far-left groups, Muslim Brotherhood-linked organizations, and organized agitators are behind coordinated attacks on French institutions. She calls it an insurrectionist effort to bring the republic down.
🎧 Learn more on the latest episode of the FDD Morning Brief: bit.ly/4yvZH38
The Chinese Communist Party poses America’s defining strategic challenge for decades to come. Yet both parties increasingly act as though we can punish our allies without weakening the alliances we need to confront Beijing. Republicans do it with Ukraine. Democrats do it with Israel.
Which ally is next?
What message are we sending to friends and foes alike when we impose greater pressure on our allies than costs on our adversaries?
The Marines have a saying: “No better friend, no worse enemy.” Are we in danger of reversing that principle—and playing straight into Xi Jinping’s hands?























