Computational mechanics Ph.D. | deeply invested in Bitcoin | mathematical modeling | analysis | novel insights |
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Joined October 2021
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Bitcoin's LTH supply as a fraction of circulating supply has reached a new ATH of 84.1%! Everyday, Bitcoin is looking more like a deflationary asset than a fixed supply one!
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Truly remarkable achievement! Hats off to you, Anthropic!
Checking that a major mathematical proof is correct can take years. Formalization—converting the mathematical reasoning into a form computer proof assistants like Lean can verify—can help.
Last month, Claude completed the first formalized proof of Fermat’s Last Theorem, one of the most famous theorems of all time. This was a project experts thought would take many years. It is the largest Lean proof ever written.
Fermat’s Last Theorem was first proven in 1995 by Sir Andrew Wiles, more than 350 years after it was conjectured. Our proof, which totals over 13 million lines of code, provides machine verification. More importantly, it proves over 29,000 other theorems that the proof requires, across many areas of math which had never before been formalized.
We see this as a major step in the long process of firming up the core of mathematical knowledge, building on work from three centuries of mathematicians and hundreds of contributors to Lean and Mathlib. We are optimistic that AI-assisted verification of mathematical proofs will help reduce the burden of refereeing mathematics in an era where more proofs are being produced than ever before.
You can read about the process on our Science Blog: anthropic.com/research/forma…
And see the complete proof on GitHub: github.com/anthropics/fermat…
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Definitely a superior move compared to increasing the dividend rate.
We repurchased 288,930 shares of $STRC for $25M at an average price of $86.52 per share. We intend to remain a regular, disciplined buyer of STRC below $100. More at deeper discounts, less as STRC nears $100. Another $975M remains available for our prefs. strategy.com/press/strategy-…
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With Fred, you always have to wonder—does he actually believe in anything he says, or does he just say whatever gets him the most followers?
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You can burn 500 GWh training a frontier AI model only to watch it get distilled and replicated for a fraction of the cost.
Or you can use that energy to mine #Bitcoin, whose production cost is enforced by unbreakable physics and code. No shortcuts. No distillation. Just pure, decentralized scarcity.
Energy + Proof-of-Work = the hardest money ever created.
bitcoin:native
Great article that matches my thoughts exactly on AI.
Intelligence is highly overrated. We live in a world dominated by complexity. New knowledge and insight almost always come from experimentation and contact with reality, not from existing knowledge.
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Strategy should sell IBIT calls to fund part of STRC dividend. This has several benefits:
- reduces requirement on USD reserve size.
- adds some delta hedging to STRC, making it more robust during bear markets.
- if Bitcoin rips then they at least sell at a higher price.
- selling calls can artificially suppress volatility in the short term enabling Strategy to acquire more BTC which in turn sets the stage for a mind melting gamma squeeze.
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It is possible that Strategy ends up systematically selling their Bitcoin below cost price. This is a drawback of using leveraged strategies, which forces you to buy during rallies when mNAV is high and sell during crashes to maintain creditworthiness. This is the well-known "volatility drag" in effect. However, accepting a loss on their Bitcoin trade could still be the winning strategy if it boosts revenue from selling their preferreds.
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Corporate ownership of Bitcoin is the new norm.
Public companies have emerged as the dominant force in Bitcoin accumulation during the 2025–2026 period, signaling a shift toward corporate treasury adoption as a primary driver of long-term BTC demand—outpacing ETF flows even amid a significant price correction.
Thesis Overview
1. Corporate Treasury Strategy Dominates Institutional Demand
Public companies (e.g., MicroStrategy-style Bitcoin treasury adopters) have treated BTC as a core balance-sheet asset. Their accumulation continued robustly throughout the price decline, demonstrating conviction rather than price-chasing behavior. This contrasts with ETFs, which are more sensitive to retail/investor sentiment and short-term flows.
2. Decoupling of Accumulation from Price
The chart shows sustained (and accelerating) corporate buying even as price fell from >$110K to ~$61K. This supports the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" or a strategic reserve asset for corporations—similar to how companies hold gold or other hard assets. It implies companies are focused on long-term scarcity and monetary premium rather than near-term volatility.
3. ETFs Play a Secondary Role
While spot Bitcoin ETFs were a major narrative in 2024–2025, their cumulative impact on net BTC removal from circulation has been dwarfed by corporate treasuries in this window. ETF flows appear more cyclical/reactive, while corporate flows look structural.
4. Broader Market and Macro Signals
- Supply Shock Reinforcement: Removing ~443K BTC net from liquid supply (companies + ETFs) over 12 months is meaningful, especially as Bitcoin’s issuance rate is now very low post-halving cycles. This supports potential upward pressure on price once macro conditions improve.
- Risk Tolerance: Corporations buying aggressively into a bear market phase signals maturing institutional infrastructure (custody, financing, accounting treatment) and growing comfort with BTC volatility.
- Potential Catalysts: If companies continue this pace, it could pressure Bitcoin’s float further. Future catalysts might include more public companies adopting similar policies, nation-state involvement, or improved regulatory clarity.
5. Investment Thesis Angle
The chart strengthens the corporate adoption flywheel case for Bitcoin: Companies accumulate → reduces available supply → potential price support/recovery → balance sheet gains → more companies adopt. It suggests Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative asset to a strategic corporate treasury tool, which could lead to more durable demand floors compared to previous cycles driven primarily by retail or leveraged speculation.
#Bitcoin, $BTC
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Everyone is focused on Saylor potentially selling Bitcoin while ETFs have been dumping like there is no tomorrow.
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Get liquidity right and price will follow.
when Saylor first started emphasizing the volume his stock traded at I didn’t understand the significance. naively, I thought price was all that mattered.
but fundamentally, public markets are a tool for companies to raise capital, and trading volume is a money printer.
if a stock trades $3-4 billion / day, as $MSTR does, the company can raise $30-40 million per day at 0.1% of volume, which is very unlikely to affect the price in the short term.
in intense bear and bull markets, volumes increase, and the company can raise more capital each day.
the issue for most companies is that raising capital is the easy part - the hard part is finding something productive to do with that capital.
but if your thesis is that you are stuffing an effectively infinite amount of fiat capital into a finite, adiabatic system (Bitcoin), then raising capital is your only barrier - you already know what you’re going to do with it.
the fundamental disconnect between $mstr bulls and bears is in understanding what happens when an infinite supply of fiat meets a finite supply of bitcoin.
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My thoughts exactly. I felt Strategy could have played it smarter than the plebs and avoided being pure exit liquidity for whales in 2025 (including conspiracy theories of how this was actually planned—pff, give me a break!).
Nonetheless, I appreciate the course-correction steps they are taking. Going forward, I hope they focus more on building actual working products on top of Bitcoin rather than pandering to stupid pleb slogans or making tired AI slop memes.
I think the STRC moves were good today.
The fact that they didn't see this possibility coming and prepare for it from a position of strength gives me pause.
The majority of the responses to my tweets on this boil down to 2 points.
1) They're pushing the boundaries of finance and are going to make mistakes and learn from them along the way.
2) Previously they were accumulating bitcoin at all costs and now they are moving to a new phase where they build institutional confidence.
Point 1 is understandable from a human perspective, but reads as cope from a capital allocator perspective. If I were a serious investor in Strategy, I would lovingly expect more out of them. It's hard, but do better. This comment is the majority of what I see.
On point 2, I don't find myself confident enough to truly understand the game they would be playing in this scenario, BUT it reads a hell of a lot more measured than point 1. Essentially, push the boundaries to acquire assets as far as possible and switch to asset preservation mode when necessary.
Disclaimers:
I'm rooting for strategy and all of you who own it.
I found a lot of the strategy marketing to be hilariously bad and potentially misleading.
I bought 1 share at the pico top and sold it at what could be the pico bottom.
We're gonna win.
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Here are my proposals for improving $STRC:
On the technical end:
- Offer optional depeg insurance to buyers in exchange for a portion of the yield. On the flip side, offer a degen version of STRC with higher depeg sensitivity but much higher yield. Degens can thus provide a portion of the liquidity during sell events.
- To a limited extent, defend the $100 price by deploying balance sheet assets and issuing stock to provide additional liquidity during sell events. Host a dedicated STRC-USD, STRC-BTC and STRC-MSTR trading desk.
- Maintain a high USD reserve at around 20-30% of net BTC held. Rebalance when the BTC price moves up or down. (This ensures you generally buy low and sell high.)
While these measures don’t guarantee that STRC always keeps its peg, they make it a much more robust product.
On the marketing end:
- Pitch STRC as a novel high-yield stablecoin-like product backed by Bitcoin.
- Be transparent about tail risks and provide clear warranty conditions and risk mitigation strategies (i.e., via additional insurance coverage).
- To Bitcoiners and MSTR holders, clarify how the company intends to deploy its balance sheet to defend the $100 peg in the short term while maintaining the long-term vision of accumulating Bitcoin and providing amplified performance to common stockholders.
- Showcase how STRC is battle-tested against various scenarios, including BTC and MSTR price crashes and a massive sell-off in STRC.
Other suggestions:
- Hire the best technical talent from the crypto industry to build next-generation DeFi products on top of STRC. Tokenize STRC and MSTR and list them on decentralized exchanges.
- Internationalize STRC and MSTR.
- Collaborate with Tether to get STRC to back USDT.
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Hot take: STRC depeg is a feature, not a bug.
A temporary depeg is the only way to ensure users don’t abuse the carry trade arbitrage. It acts like a release valve to flush out leveraged positions. Price and volatility will restore over time as new buyers enter to take advantage of the higher effective yield. This ensures the long-term health of the product, as the risk of depeg discourages degen behavior.
Saylor’s biggest misstep was falsely advertising STRC as basically risk-free. But I get that it’s hard to sell a product that works as intended **most** of the time. No car salesman mentions the maintenance cost of the car they’re selling.
Of course, the question arises as to who will buy such a funky product that appeals to neither degens nor institutional investors. This can be partly mitigated by better marketing. Beyond that, secondary insurance markets can be established that protect investors against depeg risk. Part of the high yield offered by STRC can pay for the premium. With this, both institutional investors and degens can independently participate in the product. In fact, degens can secure the leveraged yield they seek by selling depeg insurance to risk-averse investors.
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