Catherine

🚨Info about what’s happening in France: This is now serious nationwide public disorder, but France is not close to losing control of the country as a whole. This started as a student based protest with modest demands concerning schooling and school conditions. Those protests created an opportunity for various groups to mobilise, groups set in confrontation and violence. Amongst those groups are significant groups of immigrants and Muslims. The protests today appear to be coordinated nationwide. Intelligence reports significant social media boosts, bots and viral posts suspected by VIGINUM (State agency tasked with detecting foreign influence operations) to originate from abroad, and has identified recent targeting by the “Russian Matryoshka” group. The Interior Ministry now puts participation in protests at around 550,000 nationwide and 110,000 in Paris. Local tactical control was lost at points in the day in Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Bordeaux, Lille, Angers, Rennes, Nantes. 937 police and gendarmes have been injured (as at 7pm). In summary, these aren’t simple protests anymore. They started with education related protests but these created opportunity for others, including migrant and Muslim groups and, possibly, foreign actors, to create real instability. France is now, as a result, moving into a significant public-order crisis. But the situation has not crossed into being a national breakdown of public order. The next 24-48 hours will be crucial. If the protesters are unable to maintain momentum and the situation calms down, then stability and the rule of law will pretty much return, leaving serious social scars and security concerns. If the situation has not calmed, France may be required to deploy the military, as police and gendarmerie force deployments will require relief. Finally, it’s important to note that unrest has spread, to a lesser extent at the moment to Belgium and Italy. Some people here aren’t going to be having a quiet night.