Foreign Policy Analyst, Writer, Attorney
Philadelphia
Joined April 2009
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Nicholas Saidel retweeted
To everyone who links Iran’s attacks to the excuse of U.S. bases:
A list of some of the terrorist operations and treacherous attacks carried out by Iran against Gulf countries in the 1980s—before any real U.S. presence in the Gulf:
1981 – Bahrain: An Iran-backed coup attempt to overthrow the government.
1983 – Kuwait: Coordinated bombings targeting 6 vital facilities within 90 minutes (embassies, airport, refinery).
1984 – Saudi Arabia: An Iranian naval attack on a Saudi oil tanker.
1984 – Kuwait: Targeting Kuwaiti oil tankers.
1984 – Kuwait: Hijacking of the Al-Jabriya aircraft and diverting it to Tehran, with passengers harmed and killed.
1985 – Kuwait: Attempted assassination of the Emir of Kuwait and bombings in public cafés.
1986 – Saudi Arabia (Jeddah Airport): Iranian pilgrims caught with 51 kg of explosives (C4).
1987 – Saudi Arabia: Riots during Hajj resulting in the deaths of more than 400 people.
1987 – Saudi Arabia: Establishment of what is known as “Hezbollah al-Hejaz” with Iranian support, and the start of its terrorist activities inside the Kingdom.
1987 – Saudi Arabia: Seizure and storming of the Saudi embassy in Tehran, assaulting diplomats and detaining them.
1987 – Bahrain: Foiled plot to bomb the Bahrain refinery.
1988 – Saudi Arabia: Bombings targeting oil facilities and other operations thwarted.
1988 – Saudi Arabia: Targeting Saudi diplomats in Karachi by Iran.
1988–1989 – Saudi Arabia: Arrest of Iran-linked cells attempting to smuggle explosives near the Grand Mosque.
Note: The first U.S. base in the Gulf was established in Kuwait in 1991 after its liberation.
Therefore, linking Iranian hostility to timing, behavior, or the presence of bases is misleading, as Iranian hostility is deeply rooted and openly directed against everything Gulf-related.
Nicholas Saidel retweeted
The “Syrian Arab Army” beheaded Syrian Kurdish female fighters.
Al-Julani's ISIS is committing genocide against the Kurds in Rojava.
#saverojav #kurds #rojava
Nicholas Saidel retweeted
Yoram Ettinger, one of the foremost experts on Israel-U.S. relations, drops a conceptual bombshell and reveals what is allegedly happening behind the scenes of the relationship: "I heard from one of the managers at the Lockheed Martin plant – the manufacturer of the F-35 and F-16 jets – that the upgrades incorporated into the aircraft based on lessons learned from Israel save the U.S. between 10 and 20 years of research and development. The monetary value? About one hundred billion dollars. Per year." It doesn't end there. He also recounts: "The former chairman of the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee told me: The volume of intelligence that the U.S. receives from Israel is greater than what it receives from all NATO countries combined."
Nicholas Saidel retweeted
I recommend to not play the numbers games. All forms of lies, damned lies, and statistics. Chosen statistics selectively to support people's point of view or premade opinions. To manipulate a innumerate audience. They are provided with no detail or context or comparison.
Yes, Israel has implemented more measures to protect civilians in war than any military in modern history. Yes, Hamas has done more to get their own civilians killed than any government in modern history.
Yes, narrowed to invididual battles in a war, Isarel has a better civilian to combatant ratio 1:1 or 1:2 than any modern comparison. But more importantly, this is NOT how war works. If these numbers were true (THEY ARE NOT), it still would not mean anything for legality, morality, or conduct without all the context of the war. No country has even been asked "but what is your civilian to combatant ratio?" The question must remain - Has Israel targeted civilians? Answer, no. Does Hamas use human shields, human sacrifice, target civilians? Answer, yes.
I rage against ideas of these numbers. How they are collected. Aggregated and desegregated. Warped statistics as tools of persuasions. Ages manipulated (children classified as anyone under 18) or sex (women can be combatants). A battle like Gaza City in 2023 where Hamas's military was strongest and civilians densest, being aggregated with the battle of Rafah summer 2004 where civilian casualties were very low.
During the Korean War (1950-1953), 2 million civilians (if averaged it would be 54,000 civilians a month for every month of the 37-month war) compared to the North Korean/Chinese soldier deaths of around 600,000. That does not mean it was a genocide, illegal, immoral, unjust.
2016-2017 Battle of Mosul (A single battle that took 9 months, biggest urban battle since World War II) – 9 to 11,000 civilians killed, no record of combatants but max combatants in the city was 5,000 insurgents/ISIS.
Iraq War (2003-2011) – Estimated 200,000 civilians directly killed. Afghanistan War (2001-2021) – Estimated 46,000 civilians directly killed.
Syrian Civil War (2011-2021) – Estimated over 300,000 civilians killed.
Yemen Civil war (2014-Present) Estimated over 377,000 civilians killed (direct/indirect) and counting.
Figures may not lie. But liars do figure.
According to his own numbers:
Civilian deaths: 32,660
Terrorist deaths: 25,770
That’s almost a 1:1 civilian to combat ratio.
Unreal stuff, Israel is incredible!
Maybe @SpencerGuard can weigh in and tell us what historical averages are for urban combat?
Nicholas Saidel retweeted
For weeks, we warned this would happen.
We asked the aid community to condemn threats. They stayed silent.
We asked the media to stop laundering Hamas lies. They kept printing.
Today, Hamas followed through by attacking American veterans with grenades as they delivered food.
The silence is deafening.
At what point is allowing Hamas to terrorize aid workers and run a propaganda campaign through Western media no longer acceptable?
This morning, two American aid workers were injured in a targeted terrorist attack during food distribution activities at SDS-3 in Khan Younis. The attack – which preliminary information indicates was carried out by two assailants who threw two grenades at the Americans – occurred at the conclusion of an otherwise successful distribution in which thousands of Gazans safely received food. No local aid workers or civilians were harmed.
The injured Americans are receiving medical treatment and are in stable condition. We are grateful their injuries are not life-threatening and ask the public to keep them and their families in their thoughts and prayers.
GHF has repeatedly warned of credible threats from Hamas, including explicit plans to target American personnel, Palestinian aid workers, and the civilians who rely on our sites for food. Today’s attack tragically affirms those warnings.
Despite this violence, GHF remains fully committed to its mission: feeding the people of Gaza safely, directly, and at scale. Attempts to disrupt this life-saving work will only deepen the crisis. We will continue to stand with the people of Gaza and do everything in our power to deliver the aid they so urgently need.
Nicholas Saidel retweeted
🔴 RIGHT NOW:
Mass exodus in Tehran. Everyone is desperate to get out after Trump's evacuation order. That's 16 million people.
Pray for our Iran.
Nicholas Saidel retweeted
A Palestinian man, Mahmoud Khalil, was arrested and held in U.S. detention. After one night, his case attracted viral online attention and sparked widespread outrage.
A U.S. citizen, Hersh Goldberg Polin, was kidnapped and held in Palestinian detention tunnels. After 330 days in captivity, his case attracted silence and sparked nothing.
Even with an amputated arm. Even with the loss of free expression in coerced Hamas videos. Even after being executed by his captors.
A healthy society certainly doesn’t disregard the rights of its permanent residents or non-resident aliens, but it doesn’t totally abandon its own citizens, either.
Nicholas Saidel retweeted
Alright, ready for this?
Here’s a quick thread with highlights from The 7 October Parliamentary Commission Report—also known as The Roberts Report.
It’s the most comprehensive document published to date on the events of October 7, 2023, detailing thousands of incidents from that day.
The report was compiled by a commission led by Lord Andrew Roberts of Belgravia—a historian and member of the UK House of Lords.
Its members included Lords, Barons, and MPs from across the British political spectrum.
“We added nothing that wasn’t proven. The horror needs no exaggeration.”
- Lord Roberts, Chair of the Commission
In this thread, I’ll share key excerpts from the report, divided into a few categories:
🔹 The numbers behind the barbaric attack
🔹 Selected quotes from Hamas terrorists during the assault—taken from Hamas’s own materials: GoPro footage, audio recordings, live streams, and social media posts
🔹 Some of the most extreme atrocities committed that day
🔹 Powerful testimony from survivors
No drama. No exaggeration. Just the facts.
Let’s start with the numbers:
👇
Nicholas Saidel retweeted
Horrifying, listen to three professors from Virginia public universities discuss taking down the United States through violence.
“We actually need to crash the US—We must stand with the armed resistance.”
Nicholas Saidel retweeted
Having plotted many graphs on "war" and "genocide" in my two books on violence, I closely tracked the definitions, and it's utterly clear that the war in Gaza is a war (e.g., the Uppsala Conflict Program, the gold standard, classifies the Gaza conflict as an "internal armed conflict," i.e., war, not "one-sided violence," i.e., genocide). This paper reviews The Genocide Libel: the long history of antisemitic false genocide accusations. isca.indiana.edu/publication…
Nicholas Saidel retweeted
How it looked in real-time as Jordan ethnically cleansed the Old City of Jerusalem of all its Jews in 1948. Jordan did the same in all of Judea & Samaria, which Jordan illegally annexed in 1950 & renamed the "West Bank" - the 1st time ever the land was called the "West Bank."
Is it “Judea & Samaria” or the “West Bank?”
And were Jews living there before the 1948 War? If so, what happened to them?
The land called Judea & Samaria for the last 3 millennia contained many Jewish towns & villages before 1948 – some of which existed for millennia, others were built during the British Mandate.
But when the Jordanians conquered Judea & Samaria (over which they had no sovereign claim) in 1948, they either drove out, or in some cases (such as at Kfar Etzion) brutally massacred entire Jewish communities.
Some of those Jewish communities of Judea & Samaria the Jordanians ethnically cleansed in 1948 include: the ancient Jewish community in Shechem (Nablus), Beit Ha’arava, Kalya, the four kibbutzim of the Etzion Bloc, Ein Senya, the ancient Jewish Quarter in Hebron, Atarot, Neve Ya’akov, the ancient Jewish Quarter in the Old City of Jerusalem, and Tel Or.
Bottom line: after Jordan’s brutal war on the nascent State of Israel, for the first time in more than 3,000 years, there was not a single Jew left in Judea, Samaria, or the Old City of Jerusalem (note: similarly, the Egyptians ethnically cleansed the Gaza Strip of its Jews by killing or driving them out of Jewish towns such as Kfar Darom).
After the war & during Jordan’s illegal occupation of what the Jordanians (for the first time in world history) called the “West Bank,” Jordan refused to honor the portion of the armistice agreement signed with Israel that required them to provide free access for Jews to Holy Places, cultural institutions, and use of the ancient Jewish cemetery on the Mount of Olives.
In fact, during Jordan’s 19-year occupation, Jews were barred entirely from the Old City of Jerusalem & were denied access to the Kotel (Western Wall - which the Jordanians permitted to became a slum) and to the Temple Mount itself, the holiest place in Judaism.
Not only did the Jordanians ethnically cleanse the entire ancient Jewish community from the very cradle of Jewish civilization in Judea, Samaria, and the Old City of Jerusalem, but the Jordanians also callously destroyed all Jewish synagogues as well.
In addition to destroying the entire Jewish Quarter of the Old City of Jerusalem (photo below shows how the Jewish Quarter was left in ruins), the Jordanians razed to the ground every one of its 58 synagogues.
Then, to add insult to injury, the Jordanians went to the ancient Jewish Cemetery on the Mount of Olives (where Jews had buried their dead for more than 2,500 years), and ransacked it, desecrated the graves, and smashed thousands of Jewish tombstones to use as building material and even to use as latrines.
The Jordanians also built a hotel directly on top of a Jewish cemetery & demolished Jewish graves to make way for a highway to that hotel.
Meanwhile, during their 19-year illegal occupation, Jordan also refused access to Christians to their holy sites in Jerusalem.
Additionally, Jordanian snipers remained perched on the walls of the Old City and would frequently shoot at Israelis across the armistice lines.
Jordan did not merely illegally occupy the “West Bank” as an aggressor state, however.
Jordan went a step further and illegally annexed the West Bank in April of 1950.
Via a Resolution adopted on April 24, 1950, Jordan declared, “Parliament, which represents both sides of the Jordan, resolves this day and declares: First, its support for complete unity between the two sides of the Jordan and their union into one State, which is the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan at whose head reigns King Abdullah Ibn al Husain.”
Notice nothing was said in this Resolution about any “Palestinian Arab” people or any “Palestinian Arab” state.
In fact, at no time during Jordan’s 19-year rule over the “West Bank” did any Arab nation make any effort to set up a “Palestinian Arab State.”
Neither did the Egyptians make any attempt to set up a Palestinian Arab State in the Gaza Strip during its own 19-year military occupation in that land.
Meanwhile, Jordan’s annexation was never recognized by the international community.
And, importantly, Jordan ultimately gave up the right to claim any legal rights or title to any land in the "West Bank" or Jerusalem when it signed the Peace Treaty with Israel in 1994.
Nicholas Saidel retweeted
George W. Bush:
“Palestinians have played their cards, they want to kill as many Israelis as they can, and negotiating with killers is not an option. So we must remain steadfast and know that only one side is guilty, and it's not Israel 🇮🇱”
Nicholas Saidel retweeted
A non-targeted baby that dies in an airstrike is a tragedy.
A baby that dies at the hands of his captors by being beaten to death is a violation of human decency.
Both babies died. Both are innocent. Both deaths are tragic. But there is zero moral equivalence between the two realities.
Those who understand this are members of the human family. Those who don't, not so much.
Nicholas Saidel retweeted
The bodies of the Bibas family will be returned by Hamas tomorrow. Nothing justifies Hamas’ crimes—kidnapping civilians, including innocent children, and holding them hostage is a blatant war crime.
Stop making excuses for this horrific act.
Nicholas Saidel retweeted
I listened to recordings of conversations between Hamas operatives recently published by the IDF. There was one phrase there that grabbed me:
"Everyone should understand that our honor is more precious than our soul. Our blood is worthless, when it comes to our honor."
This was not said in regards to Israel but as part of a conflict between two factions within Hamas, one of which abused the women of the other. This was internal communication, not propaganda.
When the enemy says such things, this is not theater for the camera. This is who they are. They are men whose blood and souls are worthless. Only honor matters.
When he said "everyone" he referred to everyone in Gaza, but it's just as important for everyone in Israel and the West to understand this.
The existence of Israel is a monument to their Nakba. It's the ultimate dishonor. We shame them by our mere existence. They will pay any price, up to and including the entire population of Gaza (as well as Judea and Samaria) to redeem their honor.
So understand: it is either them or us.
There's no other way this story ends.
Nicholas Saidel retweeted
1Mordecai Sheftall was a leader in the Revolutionary movement against the British in Georgia
2Solomon Bush was an officer in the Pennsylvania militia, 1777-87
3Haym Salomon, (American Revolution), Sons of Liberty, Financier
4Francis Salvador, (American Revolution), “Paul Revere of the South”
5Jonas Phillips (1736-1803). In 1778 he joined the Revolutionary army, serving in the Philadelphia Militia under Colonel Bradford.
6David Nudez Cardozo
7NONES, Benjamin 1757–1826. US soldier. Nones was born in Bordeaux, France, and came to the United States during the revolutionary period. He served as an aide to General Washington, with the rank of major, and was cited for bravery in battle. After independence, he settled in Philadelphia and became a leader of the local Jewish community. He supported the abolitionist movement and voluntarily freed his own slaves.
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Nicholas Saidel retweeted
The United Nations does, in fact, believe that it is legitimate to suspend humanitarian aid in places were combatants make control of aid into part of their military strategy.
They just did it in Yemen.
They only pretend it’s illegitimate when Israel is involved.
Nicholas Saidel retweeted
I'm sorry beyond words and thought to say this, but I'm starting to think Hamas has frozen the hostage deal because the world was horrified at the condition of the hostages released on Saturday.
We've been hearing from those released that the remaining hostages are in worse condition than they were. Hamas may have concluded it's too costly to release them.
Forgive me, truly. But what if Hamas are already killing them because they're no longer valuable alive?
If that's happening, then Hamas - or what remains of them, without their core strategists Sinwar and Deif - no longer see a way out of the trap. What if they're now building a strategy around pretending the hostages are still alive but don't actually intend to have any to release?
Please convince me this isn't the case.
Nicholas Saidel retweeted
Here's a take on Trump's plan to "take over" Gaza that's so utterly obvious and ordinary that no one seems to be talking about it.
Leave aside for the moment great questions of war and peace. Take the conflict off the table for a second.
What had Hamas made of Gaza, its society and economy, before the war? A land with so much natural beauty and potential, and recently discovered offshore gas - and what did Hamas build there?
Even under the Israeli and Egyptian blockades, the GDP per capita in Gaza was higher than Morocco's before October 7. Its potential was always enormous.
And here's the thing: That potential remains.
But not with Hamas. Because Hamas doesn't see that potential, and if someone points it out to them, they don't care.
They chose the catastrophic war that began on October 7. They built a vast tunnel system for 17 years whose only purpose was to force the enemy to cut through cities to get to them when that war came. And given what they think of Israelis, they actually expected Gaza's destruction to be even worse than it is.
One powerful signal that they always intended this destruction: That tunnel system is the biggest thing Palestinians have ever built, and Hamas built nothing else in Gaza in all their years of ruling it.
Our enemies, in their stupidity, are convinced Israeli strength is about weapons systems and infantry regiments. They do not grasp what real strength is. They do not plan, they do not build, they do not invest. They do not free their people, especially their women, politically and economically.
They expect wealth and military strength and geopolitical power to land on them deus-ex-machina because of their great piety and willingness to sacrifice and destroy everything for their religion. And they genuinely do not understand why it never works.
Hamas's supporters, the self-styled "pro-Palestinian" activists in the West, are worse than immoral. They're stupid. Even if you justify Hamas's cataclysmic war on Israel - cataclysmic for Palestine, not Israel - how do you justify Hamas's utter neglect of every other facet of Palestinian life? Of the economy, education, of the happiness of each and every Gazan?
You can hate Israel for the blockade, but it was Hamas, not Israel, that dragged Gaza into the Egyptian civil war in 2013 and led to the *Egyptian* side of that blockade. They just don't care about Gazans.
Gaza's education system routinely - even now - produces videos of children dancing to military odes and singing of the coming victory. It does not produce mathematicians or coders or marine biologists. Even the Israel of the 1950s and '60s, when it had what was basically a third-world economy, when it was poorer than the Gaza of October 6, was hard at work educating great scientists and engineers.
Hamas is Gaza's inner cultural weakness made flesh and sent to walk the world. Hamas is everything wrong with Gaza, and not just Gaza; these are the very weaknesses eating away at Egyptian society, the weaknesses that shattered Syria and Iraq, the weaknesses that hold back the Arab world generally.
Could America reverse that weakness? No, of course not.
Could a serious Palestinian leadership, the sort not now visible on any horizon and hardly imaginable in the foreseeable future, do so? Absolutely. It wouldn't even be that hard. Any economist who isn't actually illiterate or utterly ideological could tell you how to do it. One of the few advantages of being at rock bottom is that it's not that hard to rise dramatically.
If you find Trump's proposal horrifying, if you find Gaza's destruction heartbreaking, if you don't want Gaza's present to be its future -- find that leadership, back it to the hilt, and be crystal clear about what brought Gaza to its current state.
And if Palestine's supporters weren't a bunch of daft, narcissistic windbags, they'd grasp that hating Israel isn't enough. Every word of the above is true even if Israel really is the bad guy.
