someone. please. overlay time series of flipr and kalshi's predicted generic ballot with the national average gas price.
Replying to @PoliticalKiwi @NateSilver538
More data. Caveat that Claude can make mistakes in grabbing this data. Looks pretty good for Kalshi, I feel.
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nonsense king 👑 retweeted
Rs spent billions running a national campaign rooted in being transphobic and vile, but esp in TX (they spent spring insinuating Talarico was gay!) only for it to fall so unbelivably flat
Talarico is winning by *12* and he'll be the most-voted Dem candidate in Texas history
nonsense king 👑 retweeted
Replying to @BirdAppKJ
Short the middle
Collateral return (negative risk)
Alpha dissemination (pump and dump)
Martingale
nonsense king 👑 retweeted
The secret the zachhub doesn't want you to know is that this is entirely due to newly registered Rs. In my sample (about half of florida, don't have the complete data). Florida's underlying numbers look worse pretty much entirely because of mail being reported first and (1/2)
nonsense king 👑 retweeted
Replying to @ZacharyDonnini
you’re telling me this for the first time. next you’ll be telling me that IPEV (which started after mail switchers pumped up Rs) will boost dems low prop numbers. okay it won’t reach the virtually uncontested georgia and NC but it’ll be comparable to the rest of the nation
nonsense king 👑 retweeted
Replying to @PoliticalKiwi
For four straight election cycles the polls have overestimated the Democrat party.
this year couldve gone so differently if the united states senate had found the courage
patriots, raise your hands 🙋if you support S. Res. 569 - Expressing support for declaring 2026 the "Year of Math" in the United States.
legiscan.com/US/text/SR569/2…
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there seem to be a lot of delusional people who think the likely outcome of ai being exceptionally good at math is more people learning more math
Once people stop treating math like witchcraft and realize that these gripes are much closer to, say, chess players complaining that computers have gotten too good, and that they have to memorize a bunch of moves and can't play the game spontaneously anymore, we can start to find the mathematicians that are going to use AI to accelerate the field.
No longer will this field be gatekept by doctoral advisors and tenure track. I am exceedingly optimistic that we might actually start to discover math again, rather than wondering what the wizards at the back of the castle are brewing in their closet.
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nonsense king 👑 retweeted
BREAKING: Roger Marshall stiffed a local Kansas business who baked cookies for his campaign, refusing to pay a $678 bill - a bill larger than debts for which Roger Marshall had patients sued, arrested, and jailed, which ran as low as $114.49!
nonsense king 👑 retweeted
👨🍳
New - Senate poll - Kansas
🔵 Hamilton 44%
🔴 Marshall 43%
2024 - Trump +16
Trafalgar #B - LV - 10/1
nonsense king 👑 retweeted
New - Senate poll - Kansas
🔵 Hamilton 44%
🔴 Marshall 43%
2024 - Trump +16
Trafalgar #B - LV - 10/1
patriot
Alaska Democratic Party announces a $200K donation from the campaign Matt Schultz, the Democratic candidate for #AKAL who stepped aside in July to give independent Bill Hill a clearer path
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"South Carolina NEEDS Trey gowdy" - @BirdAppKJ
please like follow and subscribe to @BirdAppKJ for trey gowdy (@TGowdySC) fan memes and artwork
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