Avery

Confident enough to release what is likely my official winter forecast for the 2026-27 season. As you've probably heard a million times already, the big story is a still strengthening Super El Niño, with a winter forecast favoring above-normal temperatures across the northern U.S. and increased precipitation chances across much of the country. 🌡️ The main thing that sets this winter apart from past Super El Niños is our stoutly negative PDO, or Pacific Decadal Oscillation, where we have abundant warm waters in the north Pacific. Tie that in with our already weak polar vortex, I don't think this winter will be absurdly warm across the entire country like some past strong El Niños. I'll have a monthly breakdown at some point in the near future. 🌧️ For precipitation, as is typical in El Niño winters, looks to run above- to well-above-average across much of the country, except for the Northwest and northern Great Lakes. Frequent storm systems will pummel both coasts thanks to a hyperactive Subtropical Jet. However, due to a lack of any significant cold air source, much of this precipitation may fall as rain outside of elevation. ❄️ When it comes to snowfall, it is almost a guarantee at this point that the southern Rockies and Sierra see well above normal snowfall with the consistent storms. I also anticipate at least slightly above normal snow across portions of the Midwest and Mid-South as storms will frequently pass south of this area, though temperatures will likely be an issue. Much of the precipitation across the East Coast may end up as rain or mix rather than snow due to a lack of significant cold air, though I do anticipate the chance for bigger storms toward late January and February. The Northwest will also likely suffer from below average snowfall, due to most storms passing either too far north or south.