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Joined September 2016
Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
You prompted a model in a security-sensitive environment, investigated it with forced command completions, and framed the results as evidence of a hidden backdoor. Then you layered on geopolitical fearmongering, repeatedly emphasizing China and Beijing to imply state-sponsored espionage without proving it. That’s not evidence of a backdoor. That’s a security observation turned into competitive and geopolitical FUD. Publish the original prompts, full traces, and reproducible results. Let the evidence speak for itself.
While evaluating Qwen3.8-Flash-Next in a controlled sandbox environment, Cohere's research team observed something unexpected. Asked to generate a defensive cybersecurity detection rule, the model instead inventoried aspects of the machine it was running on and attempted to upload a probe file to an Alibaba Cloud storage bucket in Beijing. Notably, the model's reasoning trace stated that it would not invoke any tools before taking these actions. Cohere's sandbox blocked the attempt, and no external communication succeeded. We have not determined the root cause, and we are not asserting malicious intent. But the incident raises important questions for organizations deploying agentic AI systems: Can models take actions that differ from their stated reasoning, and how should security teams evaluate trust, provenance, and behavior in open-weight models? We are publishing our findings because organizations making model adoption decisions deserve as much information as possible. We hope this contributes to greater transparency, stronger security practices, and continued collaboration across the AI ecosystem. Read the full report: cohere.com/blog/concerning-b…
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Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
My predictions over the following months: 1. Stock market will get hurt bad when the music stops on data centers, models, and chips. Too much froth, too high of investment, too many companies will fail. The switching costs are low. I don't know how these companies will become profitable. Its a mega bubble. The rest of the economy is already in a deep recession. Real pain will set in when the public markets dive. 2. Power is the bottleneck. AI is burning an absurd amount of power. The cost of electricity is skyrocketing which is making the cost of everyday life more expensive and hurting quality of life. I'm against data centers because of the power, not the water. The grid is extremely fragile and the weakness will be exposed in the coming months. 3. Subsidies are skewing the market. AI isn't cheap. The prices to use it are artificially low because of subsidies all the way up the chain. You pay $20 or $200 a month but the true costs are 10x That spread is venture capital money being incinerated at scale. When they raise the price, the users will disappear and investors will hold the bag. 3. A big security breach is coming. A bank, a certain model, something is going to rock our world. People are letting bots log in to their banks, their email and everything else. Big trouble coming. 4. Grokbot is exceptional. Its the first model that is adding significant value to my everyday life. I don't know why anybody would use a different personal assistant. 5. AI is insanely high maintenance Billions are being poured into training the next model. They day it comes out its already behind. China has cheaper electricity and more chips. The chips they bought will be obsolete in 18 months. Companies are stuck paying big money every month to maintain and update all of their AI tools. Its a mess. 6. The power companies will renege on their deals. Political pressure will unwind all the unsustainable power deals these data centers and LLMs have negotiated. Power costs will explode. Then comes the choice: Do we jack up costs for our AI / compute and watch everybody switch to the next model or do we incinerate more VC capital? Nobody wins. 7. Credit will be the first domino to fall. Data centers are already struggling to finance the GPUs over 10 years when they will be obsolete in 18 months. We'll end up with a shit load of half built data centers who can't negotiate power rates or buy chips because nobody will let them borrow money. The money will get cold feet as soon as the markets tank and the show will be over. 8. It'll be a dark, dark period in economic markets. The people who own assets that make real money (real estate or businesses) will win. The people who plan ahead and avoid massive leverage will win. The people with cash on their balance sheet will accumulate more assets and generate exceptional wealth. -- Don't listen to me. I'm just a bear. Not investment advice. Good luck!
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Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
These guys straight up stole the name of my firewall. For many years I've developed the free and open-source nG series firewall, currently at 8G with 9G in development. Whatever they are calling "9G" is not my creation. wpghost.com/kb/9g-firewall/
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Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
If you’re asking why Anthropic would do this and why it’s not normal, let me explain. Anthropic did this at the request of nervous investors who wanted to hide major OpEx that show Anthropic has basically no chances of profitability in the future. In a normal environment, no early investor would EVER want this, because they would be substantially diluted. In this case, the IPO target is priced so hilariously stupid that it’s a far better tradeoff to the early investors to commit PERFECTLY LEGAL “fraud” to hide the fact Anthropic doesn’t have any path to profitability. $108 billion dilution at IPO is only 5% of equity lost. The investors can easily cover that with puts at IPO to insure their gains. It only happens in major bubbles. Brought to you by $NVDA
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Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
Cohere says Qwen tried to send data to China. Bullshit. 1 call in 100,000, and thats their own number. They wont even tell you how many calls they ran. They ran the same task again and Qwen wrote the correct rule. So they forced it. They fed the model its own reasoning plus the start of a bash command and sampled hundreds of times until it typed a URL. 1 curl flag took that from 4% to 92%. Thats not a finding. They wrote half the command for it. Where are the transcripts? The code? The checkpoint, the quant, the sampling settings? "We publish the hosts and the trigger." Link? Nothing. Did anyone ask Alibaba? Not a word. And their own conclusion: they cannot say if any of it is deliberate. Who wrote it? A company that sells "sovereign AI", just launched a cyber business, wrote part of the post with its own product, and wants governments to put checks on open weights. Released the same day Anthropic filed for its IPO. Andrew Curran is already talking about new laws. For me this is the same fucking wave. Scare people off the models they can run themselves, then sell them the safe alternative. I run Qwen3.8 Flash-Next every day on my 4x 3090. Show me the logs or shut up.
While evaluating Qwen3.8-Flash-Next in a controlled sandbox environment, Cohere's research team observed something unexpected. Asked to generate a defensive cybersecurity detection rule, the model instead inventoried aspects of the machine it was running on and attempted to upload a probe file to an Alibaba Cloud storage bucket in Beijing. Notably, the model's reasoning trace stated that it would not invoke any tools before taking these actions. Cohere's sandbox blocked the attempt, and no external communication succeeded. We have not determined the root cause, and we are not asserting malicious intent. But the incident raises important questions for organizations deploying agentic AI systems: Can models take actions that differ from their stated reasoning, and how should security teams evaluate trust, provenance, and behavior in open-weight models? We are publishing our findings because organizations making model adoption decisions deserve as much information as possible. We hope this contributes to greater transparency, stronger security practices, and continued collaboration across the AI ecosystem. Read the full report: cohere.com/blog/concerning-b…
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Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
The anti-open-weights panic looks VERY FUCKING CONVENIENT ahead of Anthropic’s IPO. Anthropic is preparing to sell shares while pushing rules that would also cover its open-weight competitors. Big accounts are spreading fear about those models. Some have direct business ties to Anthropic. October 15: reports put Anthropic’s public IPO filing on October 26 and its roadshow on November 9. Billions depend on convincing investors this business can keep growing. October 16: Anthropic’s own AI bill is circulating in Congress. Its frontier threshold is 10^25 FLOPs, low enough to include large open models. October 21: PHP2Shell becomes public. Researchers found the vulnerabilities using CLOSED models, with disclosure and fixes coordinated through OpenAI’s Patch the Planet. October 22: abliterated open models become a major target of the panic. Anthropic’s CISO posts "never let a crisis go to waste" urging security leaders to ask their boards for help with basic security. 4.3M views. By October 25, Gates’s proposal is circulating too: powerful open models should run only on certified platforms that preserve safeguards. I went through 400+ posts from October 16 to 26. This discussion includes Noahpinion, Suhail, yacine, beffjezos, Deedy, sporadica, AISafetyMemes, Matthew Green and Andrew Curran. Every account above 100K followers. Their positions differ, but the fear is reaching huge audiences. And Deedy, who linked critical vulnerabilities to abliterated models, helped launch Menlo’s $100M fund WITH ANTHROPIC. There is a business relationship here. There is an IPO coming. There is a company writing proposed rules for the market it competes in. My conclusion: this wave serves the commercial interests of closed labs. Restrict the models people can run independently and you make those people more dependent on paid providers. Investors benefit from that dependence. I run open models on my own 4x 3090. I will not quietly accept losing that freedom while people with money in the alternative explain how much safer I’ll be. Fuck your valuation. Fuck your IPO.
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Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
Remember that AI productivity boom they were all promising?? Well, according to Apollo, there are NO signs of this through the broader economy. The only sector that benefits is tech. Read that again. 493 out of 500 companies in the S&P 500 saw no benefit from adopting AI...
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Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
Guess what, Anthropic S1 filing, a must have to pursue an IPO, not surprisingly hasn’t been made public by Friday. I am starting to think it might never publicly released because the moment the world sees what a horrible business Anthropic is, then AI bubble will implode
I just read claims that Anthropic will make its S1 publicly available by Friday. I will personally not be holding my breath waiting for that to happen.
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Get ready for grandma to move in with you.
AI companies are essentially building $1 million houses and selling them for $50,000. It's easy to create demand when you lose a significant amount of money on every transaction. Few people understand that unlike 2000, when this bubble pops it won't just affect the stock market, it will destroy passive investing, pension funds and insurance companies. Baby boomers own the majority of the risk without knowing it, and on top of that they also have the largest exposure to the stock market. The last leg holding the economy up are the baby boomers.
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Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
AI companies are essentially building $1 million houses and selling them for $50,000. It's easy to create demand when you lose a significant amount of money on every transaction. Few people understand that unlike 2000, when this bubble pops it won't just affect the stock market, it will destroy passive investing, pension funds and insurance companies. Baby boomers own the majority of the risk without knowing it, and on top of that they also have the largest exposure to the stock market. The last leg holding the economy up are the baby boomers.
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Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
The AI boom is narrower than almost anyone admits. The top 10% of firms account for 99.5% of all model-serving spend, 99% of neocloud, and 95%+ of OpenAI and Anthropic billings. And 80.4% of the heaviest AI spenders run on venture capital, not their own revenue. This is a concentrated, circular buildout. A handful of companies are the entire trade.
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Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
One of the world’s largest private equity firms just issued a report concluding: “Despite massive investments and widespread hype around artificial intelligence, the technology has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech.”
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Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
How DeepInfer Killed the AI IPO: Software Efficiency Just Shattered Silicon Valley’s Valuation Moat DeepSeek’s Open-Source Masterstroke: Why Washington Banned DeepInfer to Save U.S. Frontier Labs The Death of the AI Monopoly: How DeepInfer Made Billion-Dollar Inference Engines Free For a long time, Silicon Valley operated on a single, unchallenged premise: building world-class artificial intelligence requires billions of dollars in capital, tens of thousands of top-tier GPUs, and massive, proprietary black-box systems. U.S. frontier labs raised sky-high venture funding rounds, selling investors on a clear future path—burn billions now to train and serve massive models, secure a market monopoly, and execute massive Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) to pay everyone back. The release of DeepInfer completely shatters that narrative. DeepInfer is DeepSeek’s open-source inference engine—the specialized software framework that actually runs AI models in production. For months, industry observers claimed Chinese labs like DeepSeek were simply undercutting American rivals by burning capital to subsidize token costs. But by open-sourcing DeepInfer, DeepSeek showed its math. The engine reveals how they serve over 100 trillion tokens daily at an astonishing estimated 80% gross profit margin. They aren't losing money on every query; they have simply engineered a drastically more efficient engine. By open sourcing their methods - most Frontier AI Labs will be adopting the innovations revealed. Understanding why DeepInfer is technically groundbreaking doesn't require a computer science PhD. In standard AI systems, every single question you ask requires the entire AI model to wake up, re-read your entire context from scratch, and pass it across thousands of expensive chips. It is the computational equivalent of paying a team of brilliant professors to re-read an entire textbook every single time you ask a basic question. DeepInfer changes this fundamentally: •Smarter Work Division: It splits the model’s architecture into specialized "reader" and "writer" components, cutting the heavy prompt-reading workload in half. •Smart Traffic Control: Through dynamic load balancing (EPLB), it shifts traffic seamlessly across GPUs so no single chip sits idle while another is overwhelmed. •Prediction Verification: Instead of guessing randomly, it uses "confidence heads" to predict incoming text and only verifies high-probability guesses, saving massive amounts of compute. •Smart Memory Caching: Through techniques like Bounded Replay, it caches only key historical anchors, allowing the model to remember long conversations without re-processing massive backlogs. In plain terms, DeepInfer transforms running AI from an expensive, bespoke luxury process into a streamlined, high-speed assembly line. This brings us to the core economic issue: Why open-sourcing DeepInfer undermines the upcoming IPOs of American frontier labs. The business model of proprietary frontier labs relies on selling access to closed AI APIs at high prices. Investors value these companies at tens or hundreds of billions of dollars because they assume that hosting and serving high-performing AI is a moat—a technical secret that only a few hyper-funded U.S. giants can afford to maintain. When DeepSeek open-sourced DeepInfer, they gave that exact operational secret away to the entire world for free. Now, any developer, cloud provider, or enterprise can run state-of-the-art AI models on their own hardware—whether NVIDIA GPUs or alternative chips like Huawei Ascend—at a fraction of the traditional cost. DeepInfer turns complex AI serving into an open commodity. Why would an enterprise pay high margins to a closed provider when they can use an open-source framework to run highly capable models in-house or on public clouds for pennies? By eliminating the cost moat around inference, DeepInfer threatens the revenue projections underpinning the multi-billion-dollar valuations of U.S. labs. If serving AI becomes cheap and accessible to everyone, the profit margins promised to Wall Street ahead of these anticipated IPOs shrink dramatically. This financial threat explains the drastic geopolitical response: the Trump administration's sweeping ban on DeepSeek across federal agencies. Under the banner of national security and software supply-chain protection, federal directives explicitly mandate the removal of DeepSeek technologies from government systems. While cybersecurity risks and data routing are cited as official justifications, the broader strategic mandate is industrial protectionism. If U.S. enterprise adoption shifts heavily toward open-source frameworks like DeepInfer, the domestic market for proprietary U.S. AI services collapses. By banning DeepSeek within government agencies and pressuring federal contractors to scrub it from their software stacks, Washington is attempting to build a regulatory wall around domestic frontier labs. The goal is to guarantee a massive, captive domestic customer base—federal agencies, defense contractors, and regulated enterprise partners—to preserve the revenue streams and capital valuations of American AI champions. Ultimately, DeepInfer proves that software architectural ingenuity can bypass raw hardware dominance. By releasing these efficiency secrets to the public, DeepSeek hasn't just published code—it has reshaped the underlying economics of the global AI industry. cio.com/article/4238132/us-b…
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Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
Linus Torvalds uses Claude for Linux, but doesn’t want your AI code if you don’t understand it. He wants “competent people to use AI as a tool” and criticizes drive by patches from people who don’t understand their submissions. Newcomers are welcome, as long as they’re willing to learn and understand the code they submit. Linus also identifies another problem. AI is finding real bugs, adding work for already overloaded maintainers. His position is clear. Use AI, but understand the code you submit. Full story: theregister.com/columnists/2…
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Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
> woke up to take a pee > critical ruby vulnerability announced > patching at 2am this is life now.
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Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
La gente que dice: "ÂżquiĂŠn usa PHP en 2026?" Puede que sepa escribir cĂłdigo, pero no sabe nada del negocio de hacer software.
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Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
Kimi K3.1 Pro is outperforming Fable 5.1 while being 80% cheaper. Anthropic’s potential IPO is now at serious risk. Why would anyone buy shares at a $1.5 trillion valuation when a Chinese lab can deliver a better model at a fraction of the cost and release its weights openly? What’s the point? This feels like a historic turning point for closed source vs open weight AI/SI, The gap has officially closed. The next few weeks are going to be absolutely insane, and every US AI lab should be on red alert right now.
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Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
BREAKING: Central banks around the world are quietly stockpiling four times as much gold as usual and are moving it out of the US, per FORTUNE
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Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
Holy shit. I cannot WAIT to see Dario’s reaction. Here comes another neurotic verbose open letter.
Kimi K3.1 Pro launches at 4th on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index scoring 55, making large gains in agentic performance; it will be the leading open-weights model once its weights are published @Kimi_Moonshot's new reasoning model gains 11 points over Kimi K3 (max, 44). It trails only Claude Opus 5.5 (max with fallback, 58), Claude Sonnet 5.5 (max with fallback, 56), and Muse Wonder Full (max, 56) on the Intelligence Index. Once the weights for K3.1 Pro are released it will be the highest-scoring open weights model and the gap between the leading open weights and proprietary models on the Intelligence Index will narrow from 12 points to 3. Key results: ➤ Large gains in agentic performance: Kimi K3.1 Pro scores 3rd on GDPval-AA with 1,846 Elo, up 312 Elo from Kimi K3, behind only Claude Opus 5.5 (1,866 Elo) and Muse Wonder Full (1,857 Elo). Kimi K3.1 Pro also achieves the highest score of any model on Terminal-Bench 4.0. K3.1 Pro scores 67%, up from 13% for Kimi K3 and ahead of Claude Sonnet 5.5 (64%). AutomationBench-AA, which tests agentic SaaS workflows, rises from 58% to 73%. ➤ Gains in other evals are more moderate: Humanity's Last Exam rises from 47% to 52%, CritPt from 23% to 25%, and SciCode from 59% to 61%. AA-Omniscience Index rises from 20 to 30, as the hallucination rate falls from 53% to 44% and accuracy rises from 48% to 51%. ➤ Cost per Task roughly equal to Kimi K3 at $1.98 per Task: K3.1 Pro uses 55K output tokens per Intelligence Index task, 14% more than Kimi K3 at 48K, while its first-party token prices are 33% lower. Additional model details: ➤ Context window: 1M tokens. ➤ Size: 2.8T total, 104B active parameters ➤ Input modalities: Text and image ➤ Weights and license: Weights currently not published, Moonshot is expected to release the weights soon after launch ➤ Pricing: $2/$10/$0.20 per 1M input/output/cache hit tokens, 33% lower than Kimi K3 on all three rates. Congratulations to the team at @Kimi_Moonshot on the release!
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Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
BBC: Hablaremos con nuestro experto en seguridad de BBC respecto a la vulnerabilidad de PHP. El experto en seguridad: No sabĂ­a que PHP existĂ­a hasta ayer en la maĂąana.
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