Moz (@onslowshipping) header
Moz (@onslowshipping) profile picture

occasional events, mining, energy, shipping. Other ideas sometimes. allergic to grifters and unethical fintwit. once a lawyer 🇦🇺

Joined May 2025
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trump managed to pull off regime change in Texas before he did in Iran
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Can someone let Greg Jericho, “chief economist of the Australia institute”, know that the RBA targets underlying/trimmed CPI, not headline CPI? Somehow this point seems to be repeatedly lost in his pearl clutching about rate rises not affecting oil prices theguardian.com/business/gro…
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If true, Hynix, a US$700bn company (based on the korean listing), will have returned almost US$80bn to shareholders in less than six months. No doubt the January authorisation will be even bigger. Mind boggling levels of capital returns, particularly for an Asian company
According to Korean media reports, SK hynix plans to announce a KRW 60 trillion (US$46.2 billion) shareholder return package at its third-quarter earnings announcement on October 28. The package would include KRW 30 trillion in share buybacks and KRW 30 trillion in dividends. Samsung is reportedly also pursuing a shareholder return plan totaling KRW 110 trillion (US$82.9 billion). hankyung.com/article/2026102…
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Listened to the #29M call.. thought it was pretty risky to show the quarter (always a heavy cash burn) without the funding... but C'est la vie. Mgmt told the analyst who said why dont you go slow and not stream to go fk himself.. so I think either a stream happens here (next 2wks) or they are in a predicament. All the math is below.. and don't worry.. im used to folks shitting on my ideas. HODL.
Has the @moneyofminepod team ever been wrong on one of these?? 🧐👀🍿 #29M
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This is taking far longer than it should #29M
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Today was one of those days where you find out that despite seemingly not being exposed to the AI trade, you are, in fact, very exposed to the AI trade
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Disgustingly strong quarter from Perth’s favourite CEO at $XRF.AX There are three certainties in life - death, taxes, and regret from not buying more XRF
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I can’t be the only one watching $pls.ax and $min.ax like a hawk… crazy how compressed the cycles for mining cyclicals have become over last 5-10 years but both of these are approaching interesting levels
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Got out of this at 13.3 today. The more I looked at it the more it became too hard
I’ve bought some $KLAR, with a fairly tight stop. This is basically just a mean reversion trade as I can’t make any sense of why the valuation gap between this and Affirm $AFRM is as obscene as it is. Klarna has lots of fud, few recent management missteps, very messy accounting and pretty awful net margins, so a lot seems to rest on next set of results, but if they can show the start of some decent operating leverage I think the stock will pop hard
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Another decent catch for Blue Ant Media $bami.to. This will add maybe a mill to the bottom line of what is an already very cheap enterprise. Continue to view blue ant as best idea of mine in a while. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I own a meaningful chunk of the co
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Utterly embarrassing commentary today from the architect of the RBA’s 2023/2024 policy failure and a guy who seriously thinks he is in the running to be the next governor. Still trying to give himself a way out without raising rates at a time when their own chronically inaccurate forecasts think we won’t return to the inflation target for at least 18 months. “The question now is have we done enough or is more needed?”. Gee I dunno Andy, you tell me. Apparently we are “not at the point yet” where the RBA needs to get inflation under control abc.net.au/news/2026-09-08/r…
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In today’s AFR: we should be aiming for negative NOM
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I’ve bought some $KLAR, with a fairly tight stop. This is basically just a mean reversion trade as I can’t make any sense of why the valuation gap between this and Affirm $AFRM is as obscene as it is. Klarna has lots of fud, few recent management missteps, very messy accounting and pretty awful net margins, so a lot seems to rest on next set of results, but if they can show the start of some decent operating leverage I think the stock will pop hard
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Replying to @onslowshipping
Hi
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In other words, CE is still very cash poor (uh I mean the family office needs more investment capital)
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Economy being set on fire by Chalmers and the one person who can actually do something about it (Bullock) is sitting on her hands. Genuinely shameful state of affairs
Annual trimmed mean inflation remains way too high at 3.6%yoy. And while there may be seasonal adjustment issues with the mthly chge of 0.5%mom, the trend is going the wrong way, ie up! (Unfortunately) our view remains the RBA will have to hike again, prob in Nov but poss in Sep
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I moved on from this ($smr.ax) today at $2.70. Thesis played out as expected, but I stuck around longer hoping to squeeze a bit more juice. +35%. As to why getting out now, no special insight or views on met coal but chart doesn’t look happy, no big inorganic growth catalysts left in Aussie met coal to trade around (?), freeing up cash for other alternatives 👍🏾
Replying to @SiddC17 @EBIT_duhhh
Certainly some uncertainty around, but options are: 1) SMR loses auction. Good for SP 2) SMR wins auction at much less than $5b AUD price tag. Good for SP 3) SMR wins auction, avoids big raise with debt + sell down / involvement of Latimore. Good for SP
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Michael seemingly increasingly interested in buybacks given where this is trading. Continue to think the r/r is massively to the upside here $bami.to
It is very hard to see how $BAMI.TO is not going up from here. I can’t be bothered explaining the company in detail, but any one of the CEOs recent investor calls will give you the picture. In addition to what others have said about it (eg teapaw.org/thenarrenschiff/status…), it looks like it has one of my favourite re-rate catalysts, which is when top line earnings figures conceal interesting underlying growth/changes. Basically, to understand the underlying story you need to understand that the business has three segments (1) a legacy Canadian cable business (about 10-15% of revenue), (2) an international tv production and distribution business (about 50% of revenue), and (3) a global tv channel and streaming business comprising pay-TV and free ad-supported channels/streaming (about 30-35% of revenue). In their last quarterly they reported 27% YoY growth in the global channels/streaming segment. This is mainly organic growth, unlike the growth in the international tv production and distribution segment which is partly inflated by m&a including the 2025 $TBRD acquisition. But contained within that headline 27% figure is a decrease in revenue from the free, ad supported channels/streaming (FAST) part of that segment. This came up on the latest earnings call (see attached image) and suggests that the rest of that part of the business segment probably grew at maybe 35%. Yet the FAST / other ad-supported streaming side of the business is by far the best part of the business. The issue now is that although “viewership of FAST, AVOD and subscription streaming with ads is way up … CPMs are soft … we think that trend …. will catch up and right itself” (see attached). So basically, the segment is probably growing at a normalised rate of well over 30% even assuming no growth in the FAST/AVOD business (which seems to me like the part of the business most likely to grow at a double digit rate from here). It’s a recipe for a surprise to the upside over next 12-18 months. As to the downside, EV/EBITDA is around 2.5 against sector average of maybe 5-8. Lots of safety. There are some flow dynamics from recent acquisitions that have contributed to volatility as lock-ups on shares paid in acquisitions have expired. Some of that is still to come but on my maths maybe 40% of those who were likely to sell have already sold. Company reports next week I own many shares
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$2.5b to prop up an Aluminium smelter that can’t run profitably with electricity prices where they are $40b into snowy hydro (a battery) $8b into home battery subsidies $2b into roof top solar subsidies Plus they underwrite the losses (if any) of the Eraring coal fired power plant (up to $225m pa) That’s a hell of a lot of money to add zero meaningful electricity GENERATION. They’ve botched the system for $60b + .. how many new baseload nuclear or coal plants could that have built?
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Fujii Sangyo $9906.t reported (fujii.co.jp/irinfo/settlemen…) a strong Q1 today with sales up 8% and operating profit up 7%. There was both top line growth and some margin expansion in their core businesses. As I alluded to in the quoted post, the big driver of performance was their infrastructure segment which they imply is capturing lots of data center work. Despite leaving guidance unchanged, this result all but confirms that their guidance for this year is extremely conservative. Co still trades at 0.8 book, somewhere between 6 and 8 forward PE, and a truly ludicrous forward EV/EBIT of about 2ish I expect it should trade decently well from here
I’ve been buying this lately (Fujii Sangyo / $9906.t). It’s got all the high quality Japanese net-net markers (forward PE of 5 or 6, 70% market cap in cash, decent ROE even despite the pile of cash), but it’s also got a couple of specific catalysts/moving parts that make me particularly interested. First is that it has significant exposure to the AI / data center capex boom as the company does a lot of the building and electrical work for data center construction Second, and more importantly, the company is finally executing on a long term corporate restructure to separate out their main businesses as subsidiaries, each with their own CEO, budget, etc. the company has explicitly said that this is to improve profitability, capital allocation, efficiency etc (“sustainable improvement of corporate value”) going forward (see attached image)
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