operators 🪐

on imf projections, peru will have a bigger economy than chile in 2027 for the first time, measured in dollars. by USD 154 million, out of about 413 billion that gap is smaller than the USD 1.2 billion bond YPF issued in september. a currency move of less than 0.1% flips the order the wider gap is in debt. on the same imf series, general government debt in peru is projected at about 29% of GDP in 2027, against 44.5% in chile, where it rises every year from 41.5% in 2025 peru also grows faster on those projections, 3.0% in 2026 against 0.6% for chile chile still has almost twice the nominal GDP per person, about USD 20,400 against 11,800. a larger population does most of the work for peru a company raising money in lima or santiago starts from the risk of the sovereign behind it, then adds its own fiscal room keeps that starting point steadier when a shock arrives. the peruvian finance ministry says it will use that room to protect growth against outside shocks the imf april update will show how much of it was used

argentina shipped almost 2 million tonnes of wheat in september and october, a record for those two months. the region's biggest wheat buyer will produce only 47% of what it needs this season argentina expects a 23.8 million tonne crop and will carry more than 5 million tonnes into the next season, according to the rosario board of trade report of november 6 across the border the crop is forecast at 5.73 million tonnes, down 27%, with imports estimated at 7.5 million tonnes by the USDA and up to 9 million in private estimates demand is there. financing the wait is the harder part the same @BolsaRosario report puts the december corn premium at about USD 7.4 per tonne over immediate delivery, equivalent to roughly 32% annualized not every producer can capture that value a farmer with storage and access to dollar credit can hold the grain and earn the carry. dollar loans to producers ranged from 5% to 13% in a BCR survey published in october without storage or affordable credit, a farmer has to sell at the lower spot price or borrow in pesos. overdraft rates ran mostly between 40% and 55% nominal in the same survey the spread looks attractive. the actual return is a different calculation storage, freight, insurance and financing costs all eat into it. the carry only makes sense if the price difference covers the full cost of holding the grain the volumes make this bigger than one farm about 8.8 million tonnes of corn have been purchased but not yet shipped, while more than 14.4 million remain unsold every tonne sitting in storage needs financing until it reaches the buyer the december contract will test whether the carry is strong enough to keep grain off the spot market as the wheat harvest fills the ports

@Genneia sold USD 70 million of green bonds at 6.25% this week. two days later argentina's risk premium passed 900 points the bonds are 3-year, fixed rate, with principal repaid in one payment at maturity. bids reached USD 82.7 million against an initial target of USD 30 million. the money goes to battery storage projects in the AlmaGBA and AlmaSADI programs the window was wide open in september companies placed USD 2.72 billion in negotiable obligations that month, the second highest since 2015, per @PwC_Argentina. YPF, Tecpetrol and Vista took USD 2.05 billion of it at an average near 7.7% a year a spread above 900 changes who gets in on november 5 the JP Morgan index closed at 925, up 138 points since the start of the month. energy issuers with dollar export revenue tend to price closer to their own risk. a company selling in pesos inside argentina is priced closer to the country's smaller companies have their own route in september 15 SME bonds came out under the CNV guaranteed regime, the most in two years. they paid around 24.3% nominal in pesos, a different currency and a different risk from genneia's dollars the 6.25% is fixed for three years. the refinancing risk remains in 2029 genneia will have to repay the principal or refinance it at whatever spread argentina carries then. a bullet buys cheap money now and concentrates repayment risk on one date the CNV placements of the next two weeks will show whether the window stays open above 900

paraguay put ueno bank into resolution on november 2. a company with its payroll there is covered up to about USD 38,000 the @BCP_PY board decided unanimously after the bank's solvency index fell below half of the required minimum. deposits are guaranteed up to 75 minimum monthly wages, ₲228.3 million, per depositor and per bank. the limit counts the person or the company, not each account the guarantee works the same for a family and for a company the first payment is up to ₲10 million, about USD 1,700, from the deposit guarantee fund. the rest follows a schedule the @BCP_PY sets, and any debt the depositor owes ueno is netted first. by law the guarantee has to be paid within 15 days, extendable by 15 more for a company the limit is reached fast a business that runs payroll and supplier payments from one account can pass ₲228.3 million in a normal week. above that, the money waits for the resolution process the bank that holds a company's cash is a counterparty too treasuries that split operating cash across two or three banks keep one month of payroll from sitting in a single place splitting has a cost. a smaller bank may give a company the credit line a bigger bank refused, and it often expects the balances to stay in exchange payments start in the coming days. how long the balances above the limit stay frozen is what companies in paraguay are watching now

argentina's agro-export sector brought in USD 2.88 billion in october, its best october in 25 years the CIARA-CEC figure is 10% below september. so far this year the total is USD 25.16 billion, 14% less than in 2025. the jump against october 2025 says little, because a temporary zero export tax in september 2025 pulled sales forward those dollars come in at the end of the cycle a farmer pays for seed, fertilizer and fuel months before the harvest. the Rosario exchange projects 44.2 million hectares for 2026/27 the price of that money depends on who lends it in a BCR survey published in october, dollar credit to producers ran from 5% to 13% a year. peso overdrafts mostly cost 40% to 55%. dollar pagarés guaranteed by an SGR averaged 6.3% to 7.1%, against 7.5% to 9.9% without a guarantee that guarantee cuts the annual rate by roughly 1.2 to 2.8 percentage points input suppliers also lend, mostly in dollars at 6% to 10%, to be paid at harvest. an older BCR estimate for 2016/17 found suppliers and exporters were the largest outside lenders to farmers, ahead of banks so part of the harvest risk sits on the supplier's balance sheet the 2026/27 harvest will show how much of that supplier credit comes back on time @BolsaRosario

argentina approved a copper project with a USD 6.39 billion investment plan. the first estimate was about USD 4 billion Glencore announced RIGI approval for MARA, its Agua Rica project in Catamarca, on october 2. the formal resolution came out on october 27, listing USD 3.31 billion in computable assets alongside USD 6.39 billion in total investment the first figure is the part of the second that counts under the regime the resolution sets construction for november 2027 and first production for october 2031, with a 23 year life the number local companies are looking at is 54% that is the share of spending on supplies and works planned for argentine firms. the regime requires a minimum local supplier commitment of 20% winning a contract is the easy part to picture a copper project can hand a supplier an order larger than its balance sheet. equipment, materials and payroll come first, the first payment comes later suppliers are already looking for ways to reach that size the first RIGI business round in Rosario brought together 1,800 companies last week, with around 2,500 meetings and spaces for financing discussions. Vicuña's country director said five of its last six large tenders were won by temporary consortiums formed through business rounds the timeline cuts the other way construction is a year away, and Glencore's october 2 release did not announce a final investment decision. the nearer work is the Alumbrera restart, with first production in the second half of 2027 so who carries a supplier between the award and the first payment?

foreign direct investment into latin america and the caribbean rose 15% in the first half of 2026, to about USD 108 billion. the value of announced greenfield projects is down 18% so far this year international project finance fell 35%. cross-border M&A is up 230%, from a low base those numbers come from UNCTAD and compare with the 2025 average. together they show money buying what already exists faster than it is building something new the week in Argentina fit that picture Vista reported production up 33% and adjusted EBITDA up 78%. Pampa placed about USD 220 million in notes, after Aeropuertos Argentina issued USD 400 million due 2036 large issuers with a known credit profile are the ones getting through UNCTAD says the ten largest recipients took about 95% of the region's 2025 inflow, and new money is leaning toward data centers, digital infrastructure, renewables and critical minerals for a mid-size company outside those sectors, long-term money is harder to find extraction is the exception worth noting greenfield investment in extractive industries in latin america rose by about USD 12 billion, on a few large projects. a handful of deals can move a regional number the next report will show how much of this capital goes into new productive capacity and how much stays in assets that already exist

latin america has about 20 GW of data centers in the pipeline. almost 1 GW is under construction Industrial Info Resources tracks 540 projects worth about USD 197 billion across the region. installed capacity today is about 2.5 GW São Paulo state has over 500 MW, Querétaro over 300 MW operating and under construction, and Santiago roughly 280 MW operating construction is the fast part a data center takes one to two years to build. substations and transmission lines take four to ten, and generators, chillers and transformers are running up to 18 months late OLACDE projects AI-related electricity consumption in Latin America and the Caribbean to grow from approximately 23 TWh in 2023 to more than 120 TWh by 2035 developers have stopped waiting for the grid many are securing dedicated generation and signing long-term power contracts. in Brazil, Casa dos Ventos and OMNIA signed a 20-year, USD 2 billion agreement for up to 300 MW of renewable power, using a self-production model that gives OMNIA a stake in the generation assets USD 197 billion is a tracker number it counts planned projects, whether or not they have secured financing. only about 5% of the pipeline's potential capacity is under construction, and some of the rest may never get built the megawatts to follow next are the ones with a secured grid connection and a signed power contract

a financing window can look wide open in september and feel very different just a few weeks later argentine companies and provinces issued around USD 3.3 billion in september. in the first half of october, that figure fell to roughly USD 100 million, according to 1816 then activity picked up again: - Loma Negra placed USD 150 million for 3 years at 6.25% - Aeropuertos Argentina issued USD 400 million due 2036 at 8% - Pampa Energía placed another USD 220 million in late october the market is moving. but access is still selective and thats where mid-size companies face a different problem a company can have 10 years of operating history, real revenue, solid cash flows and hard assets, yet still be outside the group of names investors know and readily finance the question for a company that may need capital in the next 12 months isnt whether the market is open today its whether the company would be ready to approach it tomorrow that preparation starts well before the raise: - financial statements a lender can understand and rely on - contracts and collateral properly documented - a clear picture of existing debt and upcoming maturities - more than one financing route: banks, ONs or private credit the right structure depends on the size of the company, its cash flows, assets and the purpose of the financing not every company needs a bond issue. not every company should borrow from a bank but every company considering external financing should understand its options before it needs the money the big question now isnt whether argentina can attract capital its how far down the market that capital is willing to go

an operator in vaca muerta can post record numbers. a supplier in the same chain can still be waiting to get paid Vista reported its Q3 results yesterday: - production up 33%, to about 169,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day - adjusted EBITDA of USD 841.5 million, up 78% the production numbers tell one story. payment terms tell another service companies in the basin have long described payment cycles of 60, 90 and even 120 days. last week, according to CEIPA, YPF committed to pay suppliers in 30 days, and Santander signed a financing agreement with Fecene for Vaca Muerta suppliers that says the gap is real, and its starting to get attention this isnt a criticism of the operators. long payment terms are normal in the industry but a mid-size supplier still has to finance the work before collecting for it: people, equipment, fuel, sometimes for a quarter or more and as activity grows, so does the amount of working capital tied up in that cycle a record quarter at the top can mean more financing pressure further down the supply chain the right structure needs to account for three things: - signed contracts and certified invoices - financing terms that match the actual payment cycle - receivables a lender can verify and rely on vaca muerta is growing. the next question is how its supply chain finances that growth

argentina has record USD deposits. a mid-size company can still struggle to finance a 5-year investment at the end of september, private USD deposits stood at USD 41.9 billion, a record high according to the BCRA. in october they moved above USD 42 billion USD loans to the private sector at the same date: USD 26.2 billion. roughly 75% were documentos a sola firma, instruments used mainly for trade financing the dollars are there. but are they available for the term a business actually needs? banks manage deposits, liquidity, credit risk and regulatory constraints. having more dollars on deposit doesnt automatically mean being able to lend them for 3 to 5 years and even with the expanded BCRA framework for USD lending since august, eligibility and lending limits still matter thats the gap: a company can be profitable, have a decade of operating history and own hard assets, yet struggle to find financing that matches its investment horizon the options usually look like this: - ONs, for companies ready to access the capital market - private credit, structured around cash flows, collateral and contracts - a combination, with bank debt for working capital and longer-term capital for investment which one fits depends on the size of the company, its repayment capacity, collateral and needs record deposits are a good signal. how much of it reaches long-term investment is what im watching next

winning a contract with YPF can be a growth opportunity. it can also expose a financing problem the company already had look at Vaca Muerta YPF, Vista Energy, Pan American Energy and other major operators drive demand across a vast network of local suppliers and oilfield service companies but the money doesnt move as fast as the work in an interview with Más Energía, Edgardo Phielipp of Fecene, Neuquén's federation of energy-sector chambers, described payment terms of 60, 90 and even 120 days for local SMEs read that again 𝗮 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗿 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗴𝗴𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵 𝗼𝗳 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 equipment, fuel, payroll and subcontractors need to be paid while invoices are waiting to clear and when certification delays postpone invoicing itself, the gap gets even longer 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗶𝘀𝗻𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁. 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗿𝘂𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘁 the answer is to structure the financing before the pressure hits that means mapping the full cash conversion cycle, forecasting the cost of delivery, assessing receivables and collateral, and arranging working capital that matches the contract's actual payment schedule a signed contract is part of the credit story. its not the whole story 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆. 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝗲𝘅𝗲𝗰𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲

a business can be profitable, own valuable assets and still be difficult to finance because lenders dont just underwrite what a company says it earns. they underwrite what they can verify three developments this month show why that distinction matters 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝘁. Moody's found that about 65% of corporate defaults in 2025 were distressed exchanges, not conventional payment defaults. how you define a default changes the picture of credit risk 𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆. on october 22, the European Parliament voted to delay certain methane requirements for importers by three years. the proposal still needs to be negotiated with EU governments. the deadline may move, but the underlying verification challenge remains 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗰. Musixmatch acquired Music Reports, owner of the Songdex copyright registry, with financing from Tikehau Capital. meanwhile, Amazon Music brought in MusicInfra to manage rights for its music video offering. MusicInfra's CEO says a process that used to take a month to a quarter now takes about 28 minutes on average different markets. the same shift capital providers need more than reported numbers. they need reliable evidence behind them in lending, that means traceable cash flow, collateral that can be valued, and contracts that support repayment in energy, it means verifiable compliance in music, it means matching usage, ownership and royalties the technology and rules differ. the underlying question doesnt 𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗯𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗲𝗱? for a business seeking debt, that question can matter as much as the revenue itself before asking how much capital your business can raise, ask what a lender can actually underwrite thats where financing starts

europe just gave the gas industry three more years that sounds like relief. it could also be a very expensive way to lose time today, the european parliament voted 341 to 225 to push back key methane obligations for fossil fuel importers. but this is parliament's position, not final law. the details still have to be negotiated with member states and heres what i think people are missing a delayed deadline doesnt mean a delayed market under parliament's proposal, importers would have until may 2031 to demonstrate equivalent methane monitoring, reporting and verification for supplies covered by contracts signed or renewed since august 2024 lng contracts can run for 10, 15, even 20 years. if argentina wants to build a serious export business this decade, methane verification belongs in that conversation now, not in 2030 because the infrastructure is already taking shape: - MiQ certifies gas production, including shell's gulf of mexico portfolio - Project Canary and Equitable Origin verify upstream operations - Kayrros and GHGSat measure emissions from space - Xpansiv provides the marketplace infrastructure for environmental commodities these arent hypothetical future solutions. the pieces already exist and neuquén has another piece in motion: vaca muerta operators must report methane emissions under OGMP 2.0, the framework referenced by europe. the first reports, covering 2025, are due before year-end but theres a gap i keep coming back to where is the vaca muerta producer already connected to a recognized gas certification system? reporting emissions is one step. independently verifying them, turning that verification into a recognized certificate, and making it commercially useful to a buyer is another that bridge is where the opportunity sits three extra years may ease the pressure on producers today. but they also give competitors more time to build the systems, relationships and market access that buyers will eventually expect argentina doesnt need to panic about the deadline it needs to decide what it wants to be ready for when the deadline arrives

private credit's default rate is 4%. or 5.8%. depends on what youre willing to call a default moodys looked at 607 middle-market borrowers last week. 4% defaulted the way we usually count it: a missed payment, a bankruptcy then they counted two other things as what they are: - loans where interest is now paid in more debt instead of cash - maturities pushed out for borrowers who couldnt pay the number went to 5.8% 106 of those 607 companies pay at least part of their interest in kind. thats one in six. and the weaker names hold more than half of what comes due in 2027 and 2028 none of this is hidden. its disclosed. it just doesnt make the headline, because the headline counts events, not cash i spend my days getting companies to the point where a lender says yes. and the first question ive learned to ask isnt "will they default". its "when the coupon comes, what pays it" cash pays it: thats a loan more loan pays it: thats a bet that the next lender shows up an extension pays it: thats time, and time is only worth what you do with it none of these is automatically wrong. pik can bridge a real business through a real gap. an extension can be the smart call. but theyre three different risks wearing the same label the default rate measures who stopped. it doesnt measure who's still standing because someone kept moving the line