
Strategic Stock Options Data Trader — @GammaSonar CEO — @SigmaSnapX Club
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Joined December 2022
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Guy has 15k followers, claims he’s a desk guy. Doesn’t know about time and sales.
Careful who you trust people.
I hope @ShaneStoffer sues you.
I don’t know Togi at all, I just hate slander on this app like there’s no repercussions.
xitter.cf/shanestoffer/status/21…
For continuity, we are attaching the screenshot, video and the original post. Hopefully we are not breaking any hearts. That is not the idea here.
🚨 We are not going to come out and say this screenshot is fake. You be the judge.
Our premise: a broker screen is one photograph. Robinhood (as an example) marks all five positions at the same instant, off the same MRNA price. So each mark is an independent witness to one moment. A real screenshot means all five witnesses tell the same story. A fabricated one is usually stitched together from prices taken at different times, from a chain, a chart or a "last" price. That's where it breaks.
1. No overlap. Under our strict settings, no single minute existed where all five marks were valid. These five prices never coexisted, so the screenshot couldn't have shown them together.
If the screenshot is a snapshot taken at one moment, then at that moment each contract was worth its displayed price, at the same time:
10/30 $180P = $5.08
11/6 $195P = $10.70
11/6 $170P = $4.68
12/18 $200P = $17.93
12/18 $180P = $11.05
These prices move together because they all hang off MRNA's stock price. When MRNA drops, all five rise, so a given stock price produces a particular combination of the five. Our minute test checked every minute of the day for whether each contract traded near its screenshot price. Under strict settings, no minute had all five at once. Each price was real at some point, but never all together.
2. The 11/6 $170P is the witness that pins the time. Liquid contracts like the 10/30 $180P (5,669 contracts traded) printed all day across a wide range, so almost any plausible price matches them at some point. The $170P was thin: 62 open interest, 52 minutes with prints. Thin contracts fit only a few moments, so they act like a timestamp. Under strict settings it pointed to 12:44 and nowhere else.
3. Two stock prices in one screenshot. The Dec $200P at $17.93 first fits at 09:35, when MRNA was about $238. The $170P at $4.68 fits at 12:44, when MRNA was around $200 after the crash. A $170 put with MRNA near $200, 15 days out and implied volatility around 140%, should be worth a lot more than $4.68. That would put MRNA at $238 and $200 on the same screen, which is impossible.
The thinnest contract is the timestamp, the timestamp is post-crash, and its price contradicts the stock level the other four imply.
When testing a screenshot, find the least liquid position. It's the hardest price for a faker to get right and the one that pins the time.
$MRNA
$GOOGL implied ranges for the week, when do you feel good about buying the dip?
$SPOT expected weekly implied ranges.
I love an early Monday / Tuesday visit into their expected high range for a short. Would love to see pull back into 565/555 by EOW.
$META's implied move for the week and daily levels on Monday.
$CRWV's implied move levels for next week. I'll be honest with credit spreads like we're seeing on this; I'm shocked they're not pricing in more. Straddle may be the play here!
Yikes. Is that kerosene on credit spreads ?!
Replying to @Yuchenj_UW
I think we’re going to see a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers
$NFLX mean reversion buyers getting crushed next week from Friday's close. Here's a look into Netflix's implied levels for next week!
Wow $COIN has some range this week! Implied levels for Monday and the week.
Can do!
$PLTR Weekly implied moves, what position are you in?
Well @realecenter asked me to do $JNJ -- so here is the weekly implied levels!
Replying to @lanto_trades
Confirms another suspicion from the fintwit space...
anyone that says "fam" should be avoided.
$MU can we talk about how criminally low the IV has been on this stock compared to real vol... Next weeks implied levels!
$NVDA's implied move for next week and Monday. What team you on for next week? 220 or 200?
$TSLA's implied moves for next week and Monday. What's your game plan?






















