Paul Wallin

Q3 Market Outlook: Breadth, Energy, and Interest Rates With weakening breadth, a global energy shock, and climbing interest rates, how should investors view this market? In this video, we break down the data and how we are thinking about markets through year-end. Please Like & Share

Feels like a nice washout today

BREAKING: WE ARE NOT IN A RECESSION Nominal GDP grew 5.6% last quarter, on pace for 6.1% in 2026. Real GDP grew 3.4%, up from 2.2% in the second quarter. Final sales to private domestic buyers, adjusted for inflation, rose 4.9%.

From midterms to June, going back to 1940, the market was up 21 of 21 times, with an average return of 16.6%. Going into midterms, only two periods had EPS growth comparable to today: 1994 and 2010. In both those instances, the market was up 15% and 12% from November to June.

You have to avoid these guys. Structurally, through passive flows and a passive, long-term holding-and-investing culture that is borderline religious, the market has a floor, and you should have a glass-half-full perspective 90% of the time if you want to succeed as an investor. AI is driving economic activity and increasing the velocity of money throughout the economy. Debt is one tool, and the fact that it is being used to fund AI doesn't mean AI isn't fueling economic activity. Lastly, if AI and the major asset markets aren't where you should invest, then where should someone park their money @DavidBCollum? In shiny rocks or under their mattress? If the stock market goes away, those won't be worth anything either.

Energy is testing key resistance it must clear to move higher from a technical perspective... As investors, we need it to stay below $150 at a minimum

With 122 companies reporting Q3 earnings so far, the strength continues at a historic print 83% of companies are beating Q3 estimates 29.5% YoY growth 30.5% EPS growth projected for full-year 2026 This is not a bear market or the pretext for a recession.

Are you going to watch The Vow? My wife and I loved The Bachelor as our guilty-pleasure trash TV. It's never been the same since Chris was forced out.

On average, Americans go to bed at 11:37pm according to the Apple Heart & Movement Study conducted by Brigham and Women’s Hospital / American Heart Association. GO TO SLEEP PEOPLE

After bouncing above 20 earlier this month, the VIX is in healthy territory, sitting around 17.5

Netanyahu’s real insurance isn’t winning a majority; it’s controlling the math that forms a government. Israel's proportional system means no single party ever gets there alone, so the prime minister is whoever can stitch together sixty-one seats from a messy pile of factions. Bibi has spent decades building exactly that skill set — personal relationships with party leaders, a proven willingness to hand out ministries and budgets as glue, and a track record of out-negotiating rivals who think they've beaten him. Even in a loss, his Likud bloc usually remains the largest, giving him the first crack at coalition talks, and smaller parties often prefer him over a rival they distrust more. Add in his tight grip on the security establishment and his ability to frame any alternative as chaotic or weak on Iran, and you get a man who can lose the popular verdict and still be the one holding the keys. The one thing that could break it is if enough center-left and Arab parties finally coordinate around a single alternative bloc large enough to sideline him — but that coordination has failed every time so far. If Netanyahu stays in power, then the Iran war will carry on. This isn't a judgment on the war or Israel and their elections, but a matter of fact to consider as investors.

If the Fed pauses, earnings finish strong this week, GDP hits projections, and employee wages don't run notably higher than expected, we could see the catalyst the market has been looking for.

The Fed decides at 1 PM Central today. As of Tuesday, Fed funds futures priced in about a 90% chance of a hold, with the rest on a hike.

Brazil's markets had a historic day on Monday. The dollar jumped 8.4% against the real, its biggest one-day gain since January 1999. The Ibovespa fell 13.9%, its worst day since March 2020, and Brazil's Treasury canceled two bond auctions.

Everyone is waiting on the Fed tomorrow, but bonds have already moved. The 10-year yield closed Friday at 5.00%, down from 5.31% on Oct 5. As of Friday, futures priced in about a 92% chance of a hold and roughly 78% odds of at least one hike by December.

December Brent futures settled at $116.72, the highest since late April. Brent Dec/Jan futures spread is up to $5.02, up from $3.04 on Oct 16. Markets are still projecting energy prices to decline after the year. The curve is widening, signaling more uncertainty. One side of the market will be wrong.

Stocks aren't breaking. They're rotating. Equal-weight S&P up 1.1% last week, up 4.1% in October. Cap-weighted S&P down 0.5%. Semis down 3.2% on the week. Money went to staples, utilities, health care and other parts of the market. Not to the exit. Bears keep missing that part.

Ready for some volatility? Fed decision Wednesday afternoon; megacap tech reports that night and again Thursday night. GDP and PCE Thursday morning. Employment cost index Friday. Midterms Nov 3rd Breadth/growth weakness could see a bottom this week Buckle up lol

Does this look bearish?

To the bond bulls, If rates come down or pause, which goes up more, stocks or Bonds?