Senior PCB Industry analyst in Taiwan. Our team offers unmatched expertise in executing deep-dive, fundamental analysis of the global PCB supply chain.
Taiwan
Joined October 2024
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那些自研晶片要放量...就被搶不到載板和上游料所卡住...一些新進的設計商和新一代晶片也不一定能拿到足夠板子和材料...
只能繼續看下去..
上次ABF载板交期已经是48-56W了，现在三大巨头又开始锁产能了！
供应关系说明一下：NVDA和AMD预订ABF载板最终是要送到台积电或封测厂完成封装，ABF载板通常可由封装供应商统筹采购，但芯片厂会对先进封装测试的主要供应商参与评估认证及测试等；当供应竞争时，芯片公司会更积极地直接签约、预付款，提前锁定上游产能。
据《经济日报》10月24日报道，Intel、AMD、NVIDIA 对载板产业的投入合计约50亿美元：
• Intel：约30亿美元
• AMD：约10亿美元
• NVIDIA：对台湾载板相关投入约10亿美元
三巨头高端载板供应商：
Intel：揖斐电（4062.T）、新光电气、欣兴（3037.TW）、AT&S（ATS.VI）。
AMD此次公告点名：欣兴（3037.TW）、景硕（3189.TW）、南电（8046.TW）。
NVIDIA此次扩产协议点名：揖斐电（4062.T）、三星电机（009150.KS）、欣兴（3037.TW）。
从供应链角度看，提前出钱、签长期协议锁产能，说明供应关系已经极度紧张，而且NVIDIA此次合作中，部分新增载板产能要到2027—2028年逐步交付。
Field intelligence post-TPCA Show 2026 indicates that the traditional 'Taiwan Big 3' analytical framework fails to capture structural shifts across the high-speed CCL ecosystem:
EMC: Dominance in tier-1 AI compute trays and hyperscaler custom ASICs remains unchallenged. Strategic positioning in orbital compute (reinforced by recent SemiAnalysis findings) establishes a durable geopolitical barrier against Chinese competitors, while extended 2–4 month lead times reflect structural tightness.
Shengyi Technology: Underrepresented in Taiwanese equity research, yet mainland PCB tier-1 fabricators confirm constructive progress on PTFE processing. Shengyi remains the sole competitor operating at equivalent scale to EMC, positioned to capture dominant market share allocation for the flagship US GPU program.
Nan Ya Plastics : Demonstrates the widest divergence between sell-side sentiment and commercial traction. Ascending qualification marks from key hyperscalers and PCB fabricators, coupled with aggressive high-speed development (M10.5–M11) and captive upstream raw material integration (high-end foil, E/LK/T glass fabrics, and strategic Nittobo collaboration), establish Nan Ya as the clear volume leader in M6–M7 applications entering 2027.
Doosan: Maintains primary designated supplier status for optical transceiver modules, with supply anticipated to remain on strict quota allocation through 2027. While introducing M10-grade laminates following developmental resistance at M9, downstream qualification trajectory requires monitoring.
ITEQ : Executes a disciplined tier-2 containment strategy. While trailing Nan Ya in captive material security, overarching market deficits ensure robust spillover allocation for high-speed materials alongside design-ins across LEO satellite networks and steady M6–M7 exposure.
TUC : Promotional focus pivoted prominently toward LEO satellite sectors. Cross-verifications across upstream weavers and downstream PCB fabricators highlight ongoing scrutiny regarding material consistency and customer qualification for M9+ architectures, leaving commercial adoption of showcased M10–M11 laminates dependent on tangible customer commitment.
Technical capability displays at trade exhibitions do not correlate directly with addressable volume orders. Sustainable commercial execution requires fabricator process compatibility and end-customer trust; deficits in either metric inevitably derail market consensus expectations."
#PCB #CCL #EMC #Shengyi #NanYa #ITEQ #TPCA #TUC #Semiconductor #Hardware #SupplyChain
On-the-ground takeaways from TPCA Show:Chats with upstream glass fabric weavers confirm that E-glass 10-series (ultra-thin grades like 1078/1080/106) will remain structurally tight through late 2027.Key supply chain mapping:
• CCL Tier: Corresponds directly to M6 to M7 grades
• End Demand: Heavily driven by mainstream CPU server platformsWhile the market fixates entirely on AI GPU/accelerator materials, baseline general-purpose compute is quietly soaking up ultra-thin glass capacity for the next 2+ years. 🧵📊
#PCB #CCL #TPCA #GlassFabric #SupplyChain #Hardware #Semiconductor
其實代表著那些晶片的預期都會高估....
隱含未來的下修風險
日東紡のガラスクロスの副本部長のインタビュー
超重要ですよ
sangyo-times.jp/article.aspx…
Beyond M8, M6–M7 grade CCL is quietly entering its own "memory moment." Squeezed by worsening E-glass shortages and tier-1 capacity crowding out, supply is tightening fast.
With the rise of AI Agents, the bottleneck isn't just CPUs—CPU server PCB laminates are facing a severe stress test. Agentic workflows require massive general-purpose compute and I/O orchestration, triggering an unexpected demand spike for PCIe 5.0/6.0 platforms.
The market is obsessed with M8/PTFE, but by 2027, the structural importance and pricing elasticity of M6–M7 laminates could far outpace M8+. Don't sleep on the volume workhorses of the AI stack.
#Semiconductors #PCB #CCL #AI #AIAgents #HardwareSupplyChain
Some quick thoughts on the AI supply chain:
In the AI era, being a market leader in upstream CCL doesn't guarantee orders. Claiming superior tech doesn't either.
The real winning formula = Tech + Lead times + Sales execution + Solid PCB maker feedback + Customer satisfaction. That’s how you actually win allocations.
Right now, the vendor ticking all these boxes is Shengyi Technology .
Expect their order share within the $NVDA ecosystem to become increasingly critical moving forward.
What about the Taiwanese CCL players?
Purely on tech specs, the gap among the top four isn't that wide. The real differentiator boils down to sales agility, delivery speed, PCB fab relationships, and responsive customer service.
When looking through that lens, one particular CCL maker with strong vertical integration stands out immediately.
Meanwhile, the other three legacy incumbents could very well lose ground in the coming cycles. Definitely a dynamic worth keeping a close eye on.
#AI #Semiconductors #PCB #CCL #SupplyChain
NVDA is accelerating its push toward "clothless" (glass-fabric-free) designs! The physical bottleneck is clear: high-speed signal integrity. Traditional glass weave effects (FWE) and dielectric variations degrade high-frequency eye diagrams. Eliminating the fabric ensures uniform resin distribution, unlocking the ultimate path to ultra-low signal attenuation.
NVIDIA’s testing matrix is running on a dual-track strategy:
1️⃣ Primary / Preferred Endgame: PTFE CCL + Clothless PTFE PP / HC PP (unmatched electrical performance, but notoriously difficult to process).
2️⃣ Transitional / Interim Solution: HC Core CCL + HC PP (both 100% clothless, offering a more manageable manufacturing process window).
🧵 3/4 Supply chain positioning to watch closely:
PTFE Route: Shengyi Technology (SYTECH), Taiflex
HC Route: Shengyi Technology (SYTECH)
In contrast, Taiwanese CCL suppliers have yet to ramp mass-production-ready clothless HC CCL products.
My latest supply chain checks indicate that Nvidia has begun testing glass-free copper-clad laminate (CCL) based primarily on hydrocarbon (HC) resin as a replacement for glass-free PTFE-based CCL tested previously, paired with glass-free HC-based PP. The goal is to determine whether this material combination can meet the switch tray PCB requirements for Rubin Ultra NVL576, an eight-rack interconnected solution expected to enter mass production in 2H27.
Preliminary tests conducted as part of efforts to improve PCB manufacturability show that glass-free HC CCL meets the switch tray’s high-frequency electrical requirements. Its electrical performance trails that of the original PTFE solution but exceeds that of M9-class solutions and even surpasses M10’s stated specifications. These results do not represent a final material selection, but they indicate that NVIDIA continues to seek higher PCB manufacturing yields and greater production efficiency while meeting electrical requirements.
1. Key Takeaways and Analysis
(1) Previous NVL576 switch tray tests used glass-free PTFE CCL paired with glass-free HC PP. The latest round replaces the PTFE CCL with glass-free HC CCL while retaining the same HC PP part number.
(2) Shengyi Technology is currently the leading supplier in the NVL576 switch tray material evaluations. The materials involved are SG5300N (glass-free PTFE CCL), SG1030N (glass-free HC CCL), and SIF09 (glass-free HC PP).
(3) The primary objective of testing glass-free HC CCL as a replacement for glass-free PTFE CCL is to determine whether PCB manufacturing yields and production efficiency can be improved while still meeting high-frequency electrical requirements.
(4) To further improve PCB manufacturability, subsequent tests may also evaluate replacing glass-free HC PP with woven-glass-reinforced HC PP. The challenge is whether the glass-reinforced material can still meet signal integrity and 0.4 dB/in loss requirements.
(5) Notably, both SG1030N and SIF09 still contain small amount of PTFE, although HC is the primary material. These tests therefore do not represent a complete shift away from PTFE. Rather, they involve adjusting the primary resin system and material combination to balance high-frequency electrical performance with PCB manufacturability.
2. Conclusions
(1) The long-term trend toward broader use of PTFE in advanced PCB materials, including CCL and PP, remains clear. However, the pace of shipment growth over the next two years remains uncertain. Key variables include NVL576 switch tray PCB’s final material selection, NVL576 adoption rate, and development progress on Kyber-like rack designs that use orthogonal backplanes.
(2) HC use in advanced CCL and PP continues to expand. Beyond NVL576 switch trays, near-term growth drivers include the production ramp of M9-class materials beginning in 4Q26, followed by the adoption of M10-class materials.
(3) Once specifications are finalized and mass production begins, it's expected that Shengyi Technology to accelerate sourcing from Chinese HC suppliers. These include existing suppliers such as Dongcai and Shengquan, as well as potential ones such as GCH Technology. This should help alleviate supply shortages and optimize its cost structure.
Amazon’s strategic investment in GCE highlights the company's critical role in Amazon's supply chain, underpinned by its tight capacity and reliable high-volume manufacturing capabilities.
Market skepticism over GCE’s HDI capabilities is unfounded. Its current technological competencies are well-positioned to fulfill future customer demand, as strongly corroborated by this strategic equity investment and the company’s forward capacity roadmap.
kokycpcb retweeted
非常荣幸，第一次和 台湾Liwei 老师@LIWEI_TWCapital 合作写长文。
Agent 爆发后，CPU 这笔新增需求最后会落到谁手里：$INTC、$AMD，还是 $ARM？
我们尽量把复杂的技术和供应链讲明白：需求从哪来、谁能拿到订单…
普通投资者也能顺着这条线看下去。全文👇
sirinsupplyradar.substack.co…
NVIDIA’s next-gen architectures are reshaping copper foil demand—and the upstream benefits are tilting heavily toward Shengyi Technology’s raw material base.
High-spec Gen 4 copper foil makers are racing to ramp capacity: • Aggressive expansion: Mitsui Mining & Smelting, Defu, Tongguan Copper Foil, and LOTTE Energy Materials • Incumbents holding ground: Furukawa, Circuit Foil Luxembourg, and Co-Tech .
The severe supply deficit projected for 1H26 is shrinking faster than expected thanks to this coordinated upstream sprint.
Never underestimate the adaptability of the hardware supply chain. By 2027, the landscape will look radically different. 🌐⚡️
#NVIDIA #CopperFoil #PCB #CCL #SupplyChain #Hardware #Shengyi #Semiconductors
摩根士丹利對英偉達下一代 AI 機架（GB300、VR200、VR300）單機架銅箔（Copper Foil）、覆銅板（CCL）和印刷電路板（PCB）價值量的估算。
數據如下（單位：美元／機架）：
銅箔：GB300 1,697；VR200 5,164；VR300 5,705
CCL：GB300 6,695；VR200 18,750；VR300 35,601
PCB：GB300 37,491；VR200 91,227；VR300 154,377
對比 AMD、Google TPU 和 Amazon Trainium 系統的同類材料含量，並給出了代際環比增長（Gen/Gen）。英偉達這邊銅箔和 CCL 的增幅尤為明顯，VR200 相對 GB300 銅箔約 +204%、CCL +180%、PCB +143%。
kokycpcb retweeted
🚨Anthropic 内部好像真有点压不住了。
昨天，做了三年大模型预训练、先后待过 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的 @hilbertspaess 宣布从 @AnthropicAI 辞职。
他说得非常狠：OpenAI 和 Anthropic 都没有负责任地行动，它们正在一路冲向能够自我改进的超级智能，拿所有人的生命下注。
结果几个小时后，又一位 Anthropic 研究员 @a_nnawang 公开站出来附和。
她之前在 Google DeepMind 做 AGI Safety，现在在 Anthropic，而且还是 DeepMind AGI 安全方案的核心贡献者之一。
她说，这种情绪在自己的同行中非常普遍。
更关键的是她后面这句话：目前还不存在一个可行的科学方案，可以解决递归自我改进 AI 带来的风险。
这就有意思了。
这已经不是某个离职员工突然悲观了。
Anthropic 现任 Alignment Science 负责人 Evan Hubinger 也公开承认，他们目前没有解决超级智能 Alignment 的方案，而且他自己认为未来十年 AI 导致大规模灭绝的概率超过 10%。
与此同时，Anthropic 自己最近还专门发了一篇文章讨论 Recursive Self-Improvement，并承认 AI 已经越来越多地参与 AI 自身研发，最终可能走到「AI 自己开发下一代 AI」这一步。
最魔幻的地方就在这里：做这件事的人，越来越相信这件事可能失控。
但所有人也都觉得，自己不能先停下来。
On the PTFE material roadmap: The highest-probability material winners look to be Shengyi Technology paired with one Taiwan supplier.
Why is the broader market missing this?
Most local commentary relies heavily on channel checks from Taiwanese CCL and PCB incumbents. But that creates a massive blind spot:
1. A Fundamentally Different Process WindowPTFE and ultra-high-frequency material fabrication requires a drastically different process flow compared to conventional FR-4 / advanced CCL. It demands entirely different drilling, surface treatment (sodium etching / plasma), and lamination parameters.
2. The Manufacturing Maturity GapWhen it comes to high-frequency processing maturity, Taiwanese fabricators lag significantly behind Chinese board makers. Taiwanese players simply have far less hands-on process experience in this specific domain.
3. The Inevitable VerdictBecause scaling PTFE volume production requires mature specialized handling that Taiwanese board shops haven't built out, Taiwanese PCB makers are unlikely to be in the first wave of mass production.
Don't confuse incumbent inertia with an absence of end-market demand. The supply chain reconfiguration is already underway.
#AIHardware #Semiconductors #MaterialsScience
Potential second-source supplier for PTFE has just greenlit their capex budget.
#PCB #PTFE #NVIDIA #SupplyChain #Hardware #Semiconductor
kokycpcb retweeted
今晚别刷Netflix了。
去看这个SpaceX AI工程师1小时的课程。
这是我见过最清晰、端到端讲透GrokBot到底该怎么真正用起来的课。
从单agent开始，一路到loop、graph、多智能体协作、verification和agent-friendly架构。
不管你是从没认真跑过agent，还是已经天天在用GrokBot，看完都会把很多“原来如此”的点一次打通。
真正核心就这几层：
1. 99%的人只用1个agent，没用loop和graph，只发挥了1%实力
2. 真正的新stack是Chief of Staff + PM + 20+ workers全自主团队
3. 怎么用高质量skills让agent像真工程师一样干活（pstack）
4. 怎么把代码和架构改成agent-friendly（Dune、contract、CI）
5. 怎么用verification让自己真正敢把活交给它们，而不是一直盯着
大多数人花好几个月才拼出的全景图，这节课直接给你画完。
把时间空出来，这可能是你这个月最值的一堂课。